There are a variety of reasons why the New England Patriots were able to go from 4-13 to 17-3 and a Super Bowl berth in just one year. However, one of the biggest contributing factors to the biggest single-season turnaround in NFL history is the team’s ability to maximize its rookie class.
Led by fourth overall draft pick Will Campbell, the Patriots have relied heavily on first-year players. In fact, they finished the regular season ranked second in the league with 174 rookie games played before adding 29 more of them in the playoffs.
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With only one game left on the calendar, little is expected to change: Sunday’s Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks will again see the Patriots rely heavily on their rookie class to contribute in key spots.
Let’s find out what to expect.
53-man roster
LT Will Campbell: Campbell will start the Super Bowl in his usual spot at left tackle, and under normal circumstances play 100% of offensive snaps. The question will be how effective he is going to be in those opportunities. The first-round draft pick struggled early in the playoffs, after all, giving up four combined sacks in the first two games before pitching a shutout in the AFC Championship. Campbell will again be in the spotlight on Super Bowl Sunday, and the Patriots likely try to support him as best they can against a ferocious edge group led by DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu. Still, tight end help or six-OL packages can only go so far; the 21-year-old will still need to make the blocks as a pass protector and in the run game. If he fails doing so at a consistently adequate level, the Patriots are in trouble.
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RB TreVeyon Henderson: One of the premier big-play threats in the NFL, Henderson is the league leader in rushing touchdowns of 50-plus yards (4). However, for as high as his ceiling has proven to be, his floor has been similarly low. One area in particular is concerning, and is why he a) saw limited action against the Broncos last week and b) might again play a smaller role than one would expect with only two backs on the roster: pass protection. Whereas Rhamondre Stevenson has been fantastic, and is ranked sixth with a 6.5% pressure rate, Henderson checks in at 40th out of 43 qualifying RBs with 24.4%. This, in turn, limits his viability relative to Stevenson and is why he might have a relatively quiet game yet again versus a very good defense.
WR Kyle Williams: The Patriots are operating their offense primarily out of 11-personnel, and they do so with Kayshon Boutte, Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins as their top three guys. Williams is in the tier below alongside DeMario Douglas, which means he likely will play somewhere between 20% and 35% of snaps as an X-receiver in the mold of Boutte. To his credit, though, he has made some flash plays in that role and is leading the team’s regular receiving options with an average of 20.9 yards per catch. New England will therefore likely employ him to test the Seahawks deep on occasion, even though Drake Maye throwing him the ball on those plays is a different story: despite his high receiving average, he is ranked only eighth on the team in yards per route run (1.03).
LG Jared Wilson: Like Will Campbell, the Patriots’ third-round guard has also had his highs and lows this season. On Sunday, the Patriots need him in that first category especially as far as his diagnosis and chemistry with both Campbell and center Garrett Bradbury is concerned: Seattle likes to run stunts with its D-linemen to stress the cohesion up front, and Wilson has to be on top of his game from that perspective. And then he also needs to at least not lose his matchups against ByronMurphy, Leonard Williams and company. Unless things go completely wrong, and there is no suggestion they will, one thing is clear: the team will ride and die with its two rookies on the left side of the offensive line.
S Craig Woodson: No player on the Patriots defense has played as many snaps as their fourth-round safety, and Woodson will again play a pivotal role come Sunday. But while he is a wire-to-wire player in the secondary who has played some encouraging football, he also is somebody the Seahawks will not be afraid to test: Woodson’s coverage has not always been up to par and tight ends have given him problems at times this year. Seattle could therefore try to isolate him on A.J. Barner, who has caught the third-most passes on his team (53) and second-most touchdowns (6). If that happens, Woodson needs to step up his game while also being able to capitalize on potentially questionable decisions by quarterback Sam Darnold.
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ED Bradyn Swinson: Swinson’s outlook is directly tied to fellow edge defender Harold Landry. If the team captain is out again due to the knee injury that already forced him to miss the AFC Championship Game, then the fifth-rounder will be on the game day roster. Based on Wednesday’s injury report, however, Landry might be trending toward a return come the Super Bowl. If so, Swinson would probably be made a healthy scratch again.
K Andy Borregales: New England’s sixth-round kicker has had some ups and downs this year, but has played a good overall season so far. On Sunday, he could cap it in style and follow in the footsteps of Adam Vinatieri and Stephen Gostkowski. Whether that will happen will be seen, but we know that Borregales will do every kickoff and line up for the Patriots’ field goals and extra points.
OT Marcus Bryant: The Patriots like what they have in Thayer Munford Jr. as a sixth tackle and backup option, and they also trust Vederian Lowe to step up if called upon. This leaves Bryant as the odd man out, which means that he is again expected to be declared a game-day inactive on Sunday.
LS Julian Ashby: There is no question about Ashby’s outlook. The Patriots’ long snapper will take the field for field goal, extra point and punt on Sunday and, if his season so far is any indication, provide a steady presence at the core of the operation.
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CB Kobee Minor: The final selection of this year’s draft has played in five games this season, but the Super Bowl is unlikely to become his sixth. New England, after all, is happy with Charles Woods and Alex Austin as backup cornerbacks and special teams contributors — so much so that Minor has been a healthy scratch each of the last two games. Sunday will likely make it three inactivities in a row.
WR Efton Chism III: With Mack Hollins back and the Patriots not committing to him as their featured kickoff returner, Chism moved back into his prior role as an emergency-only option on offense and special teams. Nothing is expected to change this week, meaning that he is again trending toward inactivity.
TE C.J. Dippre: Since getting promoted from the practice squad to the active roster in mid-November, Dippre has seen action in only two games and none in the playoffs. Unsurprisingly, he is a safe bet to be a game day inactive yet again come Sunday.
ED Elijah Ponder: Even though Harold Landry is trending toward a return on the defensive edge and Anfernee Jennings has played some inspired football over the second half of the season, Ponder will be part of the mix at outside linebacker yet again. The UDFA, who had a key fumble recovery versus Denver, could play between 25% and 35% of snaps primarily as a late-down option.
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Practice squad
In addition to the 13 on their active roster, the Patriots also have four first-year players on the practice squad. All of them are eligible for game-day elevation, but based on the season so far neither of them should be expected to be moved up against Seattle.
This means that WR Jeremiah Webb, TE Marshall Lang, OL Mekhi Butler and S John Saunders Jr. will likely all watch the Super Bowl from the sidelines.
Injured reserve/return
The Patriots entered the week with two players designated to return from injured reserve. But while second-year running back Terrell Jennings saw his clock run out on Wednesday, fourth-round draft pick DT Joshua Farmer remains a candidate for activation. Not only does the team have until the Super Bowl itself to make a decision whether or not to return him to the active roster, he also has been able to practice fully since his return in mid-January. Even if he is reactivated, though, Farmer will likely only serve as a part-time player and fifth option along the interior defensive line.
