DARLINGTON, S.C. — Charles Denike, crew chief for Bubba Wallace, is blunt about tonight’s Southern 500 that opens the Cup playoffs.
“There’s nothing easy about the Southern 500 at Darlington,” he told NBC Sports. “There’s nothing easy about Darlington, period. Or playoff racing.”
Worn out tires. About 10 pit stops over 500 miles. Hitting the wall repeatedly and getting a Darlington stripe. And trying not to wreck as 30-plus other drivers deal with the same hurdles makes this race one of the sport’s most challenging.
Here’s what to watch in tonight’s race (6 p.m. ET on USA Network):
Who can beat Denny Hamlin?
Denny Hamlin, who has won three of the last 11 races at Darlington, starts on the pole. In the spring race, William Byron won the pole and led the first 243 laps before finishing second.
“We saw in the spring (Bryon) was hard to pass until he got in traffic and that is when it changed,” Hamlin said. “Luckily, we have that type of an advantage at the race. It could end on lap one, and we could be second, but you just never know. I feel like it gives you the advantage to set the pace and then once you get the lap cars, hopefully, you have something left.”
The top candidates to challenge Hamlin include Chase Briscoe (starting second), Tyler Reddick (fourth), Kyle Larson (fifth) and Byron (11th).
Briscoe won this race a year ago. Reddick has four top-five finishes in the last seven races at Darlington. Larson won the 2023 Southern 500 and finished fourth in this race last year. Byron has five top-10 finishes, including a win and runner-up result, in the last six Darlington races.
Who makes mistakes?
The past two years the Southern 500 was the playoff opener (2022 and 2023), an average of seven playoff drivers finished 15th or worse. An average of two playoff drivers finished 30th or worse in those races.
Accidents, mechanical woes and other issues can dramatically alter the standings and possibly put some drivers in a must-win situation to advance after this race.
“By the end of the playoffs, those that are left standing are going to not make mistakes,” Denike said. “They’re not going to get complacent. They’re going to be able to overcome adversity and still have great days. So that’s really what we’re focused on.”
The NASCAR playoffs begin at “The Track Too Tough To Tame.”
Who has work to do?
The two playoff drivers with the worst starting positions for tonight’s race is Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman.
Elliott starts 21st.
Elliott has not started better than 13th in the previous seven races at Darlington, but he scored four top-10 finishes in those races.
“Darlington’s been a tough track for me,” Elliott said earlier this week at playoff media day. “We’ve had some good runs here and there, but certainly not very consistent.”
Each of the 16 playoff drivers discuss strengths and weaknesses ahead of Sunday’s Southern 500.
Bowman is last in the playoff standings entering this race and will start last among the playoff drivers.
“It hasn’t been the best place for me,” Bowman said earlier this week at playoff media day of Darlington. “We’ve been pretty hit-and-miss there. I think we were running eighth or ninth last spring, and I hit the fence and broke a toe link, so got to avoid that, right? That’s the biggest thing about Darlington for me is just avoiding mistakes and racing the racetrack and kind of letting the rest happen.”
What about non-playoff drivers?
Justin Haley is the only non-playoff driver starting in the top 14. He starts 13th. Haley has three top-10 finishes at Darlington. That is tied with Daytona for his most top 10s at a Cup track.
Chris Buescher starts 15th. He has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five Darlington races and it could have been five in a row if not for an incident with Tyler Reddick as they raced for the lead in the final laps of the May 2024 race.
Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace are among a group of playoff drivers who began racing full-time in Cup between 2016-2022 making an impact in the sport.
Erik Jones starts 19th. He’s a two-time Southern 500 champ and said Saturday that he feels good about tonight’s race.
“I feel like we have a shot to win when we come here,” Jones said. “I feel like this is our best chance in a few years – our cars are getting better. The last couple of years, I don’t feel like we’ve had the cars that we’ve needed to contend, but this year, I feel like we will be a bit closer. This is a similar car to what we had in Indy, where we had a lot of speed, so I think that will transfer over a bit. I know it is a different track, but it will transfer some speed over.”
