The unpredictability of the PBA Season 50 Commissioner’s Cup eliminations continues, with most of the playoff seedings still undecided entering the final three playdates of the conference.
While NLEX Road Warriors has already secured the No. 1 seed and one of the twice-to-beat incentives, the rest of the playoff picture remains fluid.
Here’s a closer look at what is already locked in, and what could still happen over the next few days.
NLEX, Ginebra, and Rain or Shine secure twice-to-beat incentives
With 10 wins, NLEX has officially locked up the top seed heading into the quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, Barangay Ginebra and Rain or Shine Elasto Painters have already clinched twice-to-beat advantages, although their exact placements could still shift depending on the remaining games.
If a three-way tie at 9-3 or 8-4 involving Meralco Bolts occurs, the rankings would be:
However, Ginebra can still finish as the No. 2 seed if tied only with Rain or Shine through the win-over-win rule. On the other hand, the crowd favorite would drop to No. 4 if tied only with Meralco using the same tiebreak system.
For Rain or Shine, they would rise to No. 2 if tied solely with Meralco, but would slide to No. 4 if tied only with Ginebra.
Meralco and Magnolia battling for the final top-four spot
The final twice-to-beat incentive is still up for grabs, although Meralco Bolts can simplify things in their next outing.
A victory over Terrafirma Dyip on Friday would automatically secure a top-four finish for the Bolts with an 8-3 record. Depending on other results and their final assignment against Magnolia Hotshots, Meralco could still finish anywhere from second to fourth.
The situation becomes more complicated if the Bolts lose both remaining assignments, including their final elimination round game against Magnolia. That scenario would allow the Hotshots to force a tie at 7-5.
At that point, the standings could become even more chaotic with San Miguel Beermen and Phoenix Fuel Masters — both currently at 6-5 — still capable of joining the deadlock. Defending champion TNT Tropang 5G could also force a 7-5 finish with a win over Ginebra on Sunday, potentially creating a four-way tie.
Among those possible tiebreak scenarios, Magnolia appears to hold a strong advantage in quotient because of its convincing wins over San Miguel (+19), TNT (+12), and potentially Meralco — should the Hotshots complete the comeback and create the tie.
TNT and San Miguel remain dangerous lower-seeded teams
One of the harsh realities for the conference’s top seeds is the possibility of facing traditional contenders like San Miguel and TNT early in the playoffs.
Despite their pedigree, both teams are now assured of finishing in the bottom half of the playoff bracket.
Still, TNT remains a dangerous opponent behind former NBA player Bol Bol, who has emerged as the conference’s leading scorer at 38.6 points per game.
The Tropang 5G haven’t unlocked perimeter shooting with Bol’s presence, but playoff-tested veterans such as Calvin Oftana, RR Pogoy, and Jayson Castro continue to provide experience and can be unleashed at any given night.
Just like TNT, San Miguel is another team that cannot be overlooked. Multiple-time MVP June Mar Fajardo continues to dominate the paint, the Beermen’s local core has steadily improved, and returning import Bennie Boatwright has added much-needed perimeter scoring.
Perhaps most importantly, San Miguel has already shown it can beat elite competition after defeating three potential top-four teams in NLEX, Ginebra, and Meralco during the eliminations.
