Going into November, even in the chaotic Big 12, there are four clear leaders for the conference championship — and the coveted automatic College Football Playoff berth that comes with it.
There’s unbeaten BYU and Iowa State — the Cougars are 5-0 in league play, while the Cyclones sit at 4-0.
Then there’s Kansas State and Colorado, who are both 4-1 in Big 12 action.
For No. 9 BYU, the first weekend of November is a chance to sit back and watch the rest of the league, with the Cougars on a bye until their Nov. 9 matchup at in-state rival Utah.
How might Week 10 of the 2024 college football season help the Cougars while they are idle?
After coming into the season with modest outside expectations, BYU is now favored in each of its final four games, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, though that includes road games at rival Utah and 5-2 Arizona State.
The Cougars also have home games against Kansas and Houston remaining.
Note: The rooting guide used in this article is based on what would be best for BYU’s resume in the long run, if the Cougars ultimately have a chance at a spot in the College Football Playoff when the 12-team field is revealed on Dec. 8.
If BYU loses during the regular season and loses ground in the Big 12 standings, the rooting guide will reflect that in later editions of this weekly update.
How could Week 10 impact the Big 12 race?
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Texas Tech (5-3, 3-2 Big 12) at No. 11 Iowa State (7-0, 4-0 Big 12), 1:30 p.m. MDT (ESPN)
What’s at stake: The Cyclones kick off a five-game November slate sitting a half-game behind BYU for the conference lead.
Iowa State rallied in the final minute to win in its last game two weeks ago before its bye, and a victory would get them to 5-0 in Big 12 action.
Should the Cyclones win, it sets them up well going into a three-game stretch where it plays at Kansas, home against Cincinnati and at Utah before a critical home matchup against No. 17 Kansas State in the regular-season finale on Nov. 30.
Two weeks ago, Texas Tech was also undefeated in Big 12 play and looked like it would be a factor going into the final month of the regular season.
The Red Raiders, though, have lost two straight and will be trying to stop the skid on the road against one of the league’s top teams. At least Texas Tech will have quarterback Behren Morton back — he was injured last week in a loss to TCU.
How this game impacts BYU: This game will likely have the greatest impact on BYU of the five Big 12 matchups this week.
If Iowa State wins — ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Cyclones an 81.6% chance of doing so — then ISU would be tied with BYU at 5-0 in Big 12 action, with four weeks to play.
If Texas Tech pulls the upset, BYU would sit alone atop the Big 12 standings, and the Red Raiders would insert themselves back into the conference race.
Rooting guide: Cheer for Iowa State. While it’s tempting to cheer against Iowa State so BYU is at the top of the Big 12 standings by itself, a Cyclones win would bolster the Big 12′s national perception. If Iowa State has a better resume, it would benefit BYU if the two teams meet in the Big 12 championship on Dec. 7.
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No. 17 Kansas State (7-1, 4-1 Big 12) at Houston (3-5, 2-3 Big 12, 1:30 p.m. MDT (Fox)
What’s at stake: The Wildcats have won four straight, including a comeback victory over rival Kansas last weekend.
Kansas State has stayed in the Big 12 race by bouncing back from a 29-point loss at BYU back in September, and the Wildcats have shown they can win in blowouts as well as close contests.
After the game against Houston, Kansas State will play two home games against Arizona State and Cincinnati — two teams who’ve exceeded expectations this season — before a huge regular-season finale at No. 11 Iowa State that could determine one of the two spots in the Big 12 championship.
The Cougars aren’t in the Big 12 race, but they are coming off an upset victory over preseason favorite Utah.
Houston is playing spoiler at this point.
How this game impacts BYU: If Kansas State wins, the Wildcats will stay within a game of BYU in the Big 12 standings.
The Cougars own the head-to-head edge, though, after beating Kansas State 38-9.
A Houston win wouldn’t really impact BYU, which hosts Houston in the regular-season finale.
Rooting guide: Cheer for Kansas State. The better Kansas State does, the better it is for the Cougars. BYU has two wins over teams currently ranked in the top 25, including the victory over Kansas State. A BYU-Kansas State matchup in the Big 12 championship would be interesting, especially if the Cougars were unbeaten going into the game.
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Arizona (3-5, 1-4 Big 12) at UCF (3-5, 1-4 Big 12), 1:30 p.m. MDT (FS1)
What’s at stake: Both the Wildcats and Knights are trying to stop a long losing streak — Arizona has lost four straight and is far removed from starting the year ranked in the top 25, while UCF is on a five-game losing streak.
The last time Arizona won was at Utah in late September, while UCF rallied past TCU for its last victory, a game the Knights trailed by 21 early in the second half.
How this game impacts BYU: This one doesn’t matter to the Cougars — they have beaten both schools over the past month.
Rooting guide: It doesn’t matter. Neither team helps BYU’s resume, though let’s give a slight edge to UCF, since the Cougars beat the Knights on the road and the Wildcats at home.
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Arizona State (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) at Oklahoma State (3-5, 0-5 Big 12), 1:30 p.m. MDT (FS1)
What’s at stake: Arizona State’s resurgence has been as shocking as BYU’s, and the Sun Devils return to action after a bye week.
Fortunately for Arizona State, its starting quarterback, Sam Leavitt, will be back after missing the team’s loss to Cincinnati two weeks ago due to injury.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are argubably the biggest disappointment in the league this season and are still looking for their first league win.
Oklahoma State almost got it at BYU two weeks ago, but the Cowboys couldn’t stop a last-minute Cougars drive.
How this game impacts BYU: If Arizona State wins, the Sun Devils will stay in Big 12 contention for another week.
With a home game against UCF the following week, ASU could build some momentum before hosting BYU on Nov. 23, though the Sun Devils travel to Kansas State the week before that.
An Oklahoma State win wouldn’t impact BYU.
Rooting guide: Cheer for Arizona State (I think). It could be more beneficial for BYU’s resume if the Sun Devils have 7-8 wins when they host the Cougars, though having Arizona State be a notch on the resume isn’t as important as Iowa State and Kansas State, two ranked teams, continuing their winning streaks and the potential that could have for the Cougars.
If ASU could win out until BYU, though, including a victory at Kansas State, then that game in Tempe would be even more high-profile.
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TCU (5-3, 3-2 Big 12) at Baylor (4-4, 2-3 Big 12), 6 p.m. MDT (ESPN2)
What’s at stake: This is a matchup of two teams who have started to put things together in recent weeks.
TCU has won two straight, beating Utah in Salt Lake City before rallying to knock off Texas Tech.
Baylor, meanwhile, moved back to .500 after blowing past Texas Tech and beating Oklahoma State by double-digits.
While the Horned Frogs could, in theory, stay in Big 12 contention with a win, the Bears are likely out with three losses already.
How this game impacts BYU: If TCU wins, that will keep the Big 12 race tighter, as the Horned Frogs would improve to 4-2 in league play and still be within striking distance of the league lead.
A Baylor win wouldn’t do anything to impact the Cougars in the Big 12 standings at this point.
Rooting guide: Cheer for Baylor. The Cougars went into Waco and beat Baylor earlier this season, while BYU won’t play TCU during the regular season.
A Bears victory helps the Cougars more than the Horned Frogs winning, thanks to BYU’s head-to-head win over Baylor.
Which Week 10 top 25 games could impact BYU?
What’s at stake: This is the most high-profile matchup of Week 10, with two top 5 teams facing each other.
The winner gets a leg up in the Big Ten title race, while the loser is dealt a tough conference loss that could keep them out of the conference championship.
Ohio State (6-1) already has one Big Ten loss, and a second would push them even further back in a league where three teams, including Penn State (7-0), are currently undefeated.
How this game impacts BYU: Neither of these teams would fall behind the No. 9 Cougars with a loss, unless it was a lopsided game — that could make it interesting, though don’t expect either team to be behind BYU when the first CFP rankings are released Tuesday.
Rooting guide: Cheer for Ohio State. While a loss for the Buckeyes would further damage their chances at making the playoff, which could benefit the Cougars, a Penn State loss would knock them from the unbeaten ranks.
This is the best chance for Penn State to lose during the regular season.
What’s at stake: Indiana is still unbeaten at 8-0, and it’s made the Big Ten race more interesting.
The Hoosiers will face a stiff test in a few weeks at No. 4 Ohio State, but if the Spartans (4-4) pull the upset, there’s a real chance Indiana may lose twice in the regular season and play itself out of the playoff race.
Indiana, though, has won every game by 14 or more points so far this year, and Michigan State has lost four out of its last five games.
How this game impacts BYU: If Indiana wins, the Hoosiers stay unbeaten like BYU and continue to build their case for a CFP berth.
If the Hoosiers lose, that is one less unbeaten team in the top 25 rankings.
Rooting guide: Cheer for Michigan State. Yes, it’s a long shot that the Spartans win, but if they pull the upset, that aids BYU by hurting one of its competitors for a playoff spot.
What’s at stake: The Mustangs-Panthers matchup will carry a lot of weight in the ACC title race.
SMU is 4-0 in ACC play and 7-1 overall, while Pittsburgh is 3-0 and 7-0 overall — Clemson and Miami also haven’t lost in league action.
Saturday’s winner will get a bump in the polls and bolster their spot in the conference chase.
How this game impacts BYU: If SMU wins, that helps the Cougars’ profile — BYU went into Dallas in Week 2 and beat the Mustangs.
Also, an SMU win would eliminate another unbeaten team.
Pittsburgh, with a win, would strengthen its case for the ACC crown and playoff contention.
Rooting guide: Cheer for SMU. If the Mustangs stay in the ACC race and ultimately win the league, it would be a major boost to BYU’s playoff resume.
