Where IU basketball March Madness predictions stand after win vs Purdue

BLOOMINGTON — Sunday’s upset of Purdue breathed new life into Indiana basketball‘s at-large NCAA Tournament hopes, but there remains work to be done.

The Hoosiers face a two-week stretch that includes a land mine at home (Penn State), a tough trip through the Pacific Northwest and a potential bubble showdown with Ohio State on March 8 to conclude the regular season.

IU needs to start with a win against Penn State, to ensure its perfect record against Quads 2, 3 and 4 remains intact. Then, the Hoosiers steel themselves for their West Coast swing, starting at Washington on Saturday. While 2-0 is not a must for Indiana this week, it’s close.

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What is NET ranking? How is men’s college basketball NET ranking determined?

.A team’s victories are assigned values from Quad 1 to Quad 4, based on the opponent’s NET ranking and the location of the game. Those rankings remain fluid up through Selection Sunday, with teams rising and falling in the NET rankings and potentially moving in and out of quadrants.

• Quad 1: Home vs. NET 1-30, neutral 1-50 or away 1-75

• Quad 2: Home vs. 31-75, neutral 51-100 or away 76-135

• Quad 3: Home 76-160, neutral 101-200 or away 135-240

• Quad 4: Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, away 241 or lower

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What is Indiana men’s basketball’s NET rating, quad record?

NET ranking: 56

Quad 1 record: 4-11

Quad 2 record: 3-0

Quad 3 record: 5-0

Quad 4 record: 4-0

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Bracketology projections for Indiana men’s basketball

USA TODAY (updated Feb. 25): Not mentioned.

ESPN (updated Feb. 25): First four out.

The Bracketeer (updated Feb. 24): No. 12 seed in Dayton (play-in) vs. Wake Forest.

Bracket Matrix (daily aggregation of 100+ brackets): First team out, included in 46 of 105 brackets.

How IU men’s basketball results affected its March Madness resume last week

Feb. 23 home win against Purdue (No. 19 NET): That Indiana beat Purdue matters greatly to its tournament hopes, handing the Hoosiers another sturdy Quad 1 win to stand up next to Michigan State away. How Indiana beat Purdue mattered almost as much to the Hoosiers’ metrics — IU’s KenPom ranking bumped seven spots up to No. 50 after a 15-point rout. Indiana has multiple high-quality wins at the foundation of its resume. Now it needs quantity, and good news elsewhere.

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How upcoming games could help IU men’s basketball’s March Madness resume

Wednesday vs. Penn State (No. 69 NET): The Nittany Lions’ modest two-game win streak shored up their NET ranking, at least for the moment. That’s important for Indiana because the Hoosiers need Penn State to stay in the top 75. That would keep the Hoosiers’ January win at The Palestra in the Quad 1 category, and make this game a Quad 2. The net gain/loss of both games might wind up mattering greatly. Of course, the catch is that winning Wednesday hurts Penn State’s chances of staying where IU needs it to in the NET. Just win and worry about the rest later.

Saturday at Washington (No. 95 NET): IU can afford to lose this game so long as Washington stays in the top 100 and therefore a Quad 2 opponent. But if Indiana wants to finish this season with a flourish (and Indiana needs to finish this season with a flourish), this is the kind of game the Hoosiers should win.

Frankly, this is the kind of week the Hoosiers should win. There’s a lot more to lose than gain against Penn State and U Dub, and right now Indiana needs momentum and confidence. If the Hoosiers can’t find it against teams on the Big Ten tournament bubble, then they will have a hard time staying on the NCAA tournament bubble.

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Indiana men’s basketball’s remaining schedule

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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Will Indiana basketball make March Madness? Predictions, bracketology