Lady Vols basketball has officially played its way out of hosting the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
No. 17 Tennessee (22-9) bowed out in the second round of the SEC tournament last week, and a deep run would have been its only hope to play its way back into the top 16 seeds. The Lady Vols now await their seeding for the NCAA tournament on Selection Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Here’s where Tennessee stands in the latest March Madness projections.
Lady Vols projected as a No. 5 seed
ESPN’s Charlie Creme said after Tennessee lost to Vanderbilt, there wasn’t a path for it to host as a top-16 seed. The second loss of the season to the Commodores was the Lady Vols’ third loss in their final four games before the NCAA tournament.
Creme projects Tennessee as a No. 5 seed in Spokane 2, which has UCLA as the No. 1 seed. The Lady Vols would be playing No. 12 seed Grand Canyon at Baylor, which would host as the No. 4 seed and play No. 13 UTSA.
The Athletic’s Mark Schindler is projecting Tennessee as a No. 5 seed in Birmingham, playing at Chapel Hill, North Carolina. No. 4 seed UNC Would host and play No. 13 seed Middle Tennessee. Schindler has UCLA as the No. 1 seed in that region.
Lady Vols basketball’s NCAA Tournament resume
The Lady Vols have three ranked wins against Iowa, UConn and Alabama. They also have seven wins over teams in the top 40 of the NCAA NET rankings – UConn, Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida State, Iowa, Richmond and Mississippi State. Eight of Tennessee’s losses are to teams ranked in the top 25 of the NET. The loss to Georgia is an eyesore on an otherwise strong resume with the Bulldogs ranked 106 in the NET.
Tennessee dropped to No. 14 in the NCAA NET rankings. It is 6-8 in Quad 1 games, 4-0 in Quad 2 games, 3-0 in Quad 3 and 9-1 in Quad 4. Five of the Lady Vols losses were to teams ranked in the top 10 at the time – Oklahoma, Texas, South Carolina and LSU twice – and all but one of their losses were by single digits. the 24-point loss at Kentucky was the only loss by more than eight points.
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Lady Vols basketball’s NCAA Tournament history
The Lady Vols are the only program never to miss an NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee was a No. 6 seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, which was its lowest seeding since being a No. 11 seed in 2019. The Lady Vols were a top-16 seed for three straight seasons from 2021-23. They were a No. 3 seed in 2021 and a No. 4 seed in 2022 and 2023.
Tennessee made back-to-back trips to the Sweet 16 in 2022 and 2023 for the first time since since 2015 and 2016. The Lady Vols bowed out in the second round last year, losing 79-72 to No. 3 seed NC State.
Tennessee has won eight NCAA championships and made 18 trips to the Final Four. All of those happened under coach Pat Summitt, and the last time it did either was in 2008.
Cora Hall covers University of Tennessee women’s athletics. Email her at cora.hall@knoxnews.com and follow her on X @corahalll. If you enjoy Cora’s coverage, consider a digital subscription that allows you to access all of it.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee women’s basketball updated March Madness predictions
