The college football landscape is evolving rapidly as the sport undergoes multiple seismic changes simultaneously. Name, image and likeness licensing, the transfer portal and new player eligibility rules make the sport increasingly more complex to understand.
ESPN created the Football Power Index (FPI) to try to quantify the changes and make them understandable for the average fan. The site ranked teams using a number of categories such as their odds to make the playoffs, records for the season and even national championship odds.
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The site listed 20 teams, but here are the 15 with a real chance to win the title:
Dec 2, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive back Mike Sainristil (0) raises the MVP trophy after winning the Big Ten Championship game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rank: 14.6
Projected Wins: 8.4
Championship %: 1%
Michigan’s quarterback situation will make it tough to win a national championship, but there is always a chance when you sport one of the best defenses in the country.
A decal on Auburn helmets honoring the University of Virginia players killed earlier this week that were killed as Auburn Tigers take on Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022.
FPI Rank: 14.8
Projected Wins: 7.5
Championship %: 1.1%
The Tigers have a long way to go to reach contender status, but ESPN gives them long-shot odds of winning the title.
![Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin is interviewed after the game while holding the Ash Verlander Champions Trophy of the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. Ole Miss defeated Duke 52-20. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/W.QOBidzRDiKcceW4UUjEg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTYzODtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/ducks_wire_usa_today_articles_200/72c4595c2be0b98d82b96e3b6c9b0090)
Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin is interviewed after the game while holding the Ash Verlander Champions Trophy of the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. Ole Miss defeated Duke 52-20. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
FPI Rank: 15.9
Projected Wins: 8.3
Championship %: 1.5%
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Ole Miss can certainly hang with the heavy hitters, given they beat the Georgia Bulldogs last year. If the Rebels can refrain from playing down to opponents, a deep playoff run is on the table.
LSU Tigers helmet against the Missouri Tigers during the first half at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rank: 17.1
Projected Wins: 7.9
Championship %: 1.8%
ESPN doesn’t expect LSU to have the best chance, but it has a consensus top-10 pick, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who makes a national championship a possibility.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 27: Head coach Mike Elko of the Texas A&M Aggies looks on from the sideline during the second half of the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl against the USC Trojans at Allegiant Stadium on December 27, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Trojans defeated the Aggies 35-31. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)
FPI Rank: 17.9
Projected Wins: 8.1
Championship %: 2.1%
The Aggies had a chance to make the College Football Playoffs before dropping the final three games of last season. If they can finish strongly this year, there is a real possibility they can compete for the title.
Nov 23, 2019; Columbia, MO, USA; A general view of a Tennessee Volunteers helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Rank: 17.4
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Projected Wins: 8.7
Championship %: 2.3%
After a sudden and controversial exit by Nico Iamaleava, the Volunteers are scrambling to put a plan in place for the quarterback position. That inevitably will spark a regression this year.
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman during the Notre Dame Blue-Gold spring football game at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, April 12, 2025, in South Bend.
FPI Rank: 18.1
Projected Wins: 9.3
Championship %: 2.4%
ESPN projects last season’s national championship runner-up to have a massive slide because there still is no solid plan at quarterback despite an elite defense.
Miami Hurricanes football helmet sits on a bench
FPI Rank: 17.5
Projected Wins: 9.7
Championship %: 3.2%
Last year’s starting quarterback, Cam Ward, was the first pick in the NFL draft, so there could be some natural slippage in Miami with a lower caliber player under center.
Clemson football head coach Dabo Swinney talks with media before the first football practice at the Allen N. Reeves Football Complex at Clemson University in Clemson, S.C. Friday, February 28, 2025.
FPI Rank: 17.3
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Projected Wins: 9.7
Championship %: 3.8%
Once considered a college football juggernaut, Dabo Swinney attempts to lead Clemson to its first College Football Playoff since 2020.
No. 6 – Oregon Ducks
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning yells to the officials as the Fighting Ducks face off against Mighty Oregon in the Oregon Ducks spring game on April 26, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene.
FPI Rank: 20.5
Projected Wins: 10
Championship %: 4.8%
Coach Dan Lanning brought his team all the way to the Rose Bowl last year, but extreme roster turnover will make it difficult for Oregon to reach those heights again.
FPI Rank: 21.5
Projected Wins: 10.2
Championship %: 7.6%
After an impressive first year under a new offensive coordinator, the Penn State offense is primed to take another step to complement its championship level defense.
Sep 14, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; General view of Alabama Crimson Tide helmets during the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
FPI Rank: 24.2
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Projected Wins: 9.6
Championship %: 10.4%
A team with an NFL pipeline as strong as Alabama is always replenishing its stockpile of talent, and ESPN projects this year to be no different.
No. 3 – Ohio State Buckeyes
April 13, 2024; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State head football coach Ryan Day speaks to players during the first half of the LifeSports spring football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday.
FPI Rank: 23.8
Projected Wins: 10.4
Championship %: 11.6%
The Buckeyes have the third-best championship odds and would likely be higher had they not lost their starting quarterback to the NFL.
No. 2 – Georgia Bulldogs
Head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs
FPI Rank: 26.6
Projected Wins: 10.1
Championship %: 17.5%
Georgia consistently has an elite defense as well as one of the best coaches of the era. That stamps them as perennial contenders.
A view of the Texas Longhorns helmet
FPI Rank: 28.5
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Projected Wins: 10.4
Championship %: 22.2%
Texas has one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, Arch Manning, to go along with a loaded roster, so it is no surprise the Longhorns have the best championship odds.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon football considered national championship contender by ESPN FPI
