Which NCAA Cuts are the Hardest to Attain? The Easiest? Analyzing ‘A’ and ‘B’ Cut Trends
Championship season is finally upon us, with the swimming world bubbling with excitement. Over the past two weeks, the top stars in college swimming have fought to guide their teams toward a conference championship. But for college swimming’s middle class, championship season can often represent another goal: the last opportunity to acquire an NCAA ‘A’ or ‘B’ cut, ensuring the right to compete at this year’s NCAA championships.
Cuts (qualifying times) are determined on a yearly basis, through averages from the last three years of events. ‘A’ cuts (which guarantee an appearance at NCAAs) are found from the average eighth-best time in an event. ‘B’ cuts don’t necessarily guarantee an invite, with the average 125th-fastest time earning an athlete the chance to be invited. With so many swimmers fighting for a spot in this year’s biggest competition, I asked the question: What are the most difficult events to qualify in? And how have the times changed over time?
Tracking Invitees
In determining the trends of the NCAA ‘A’ and ‘B’ cuts, the easiest place to start is with those who competed a year ago. Last season, the NCAA allowed for the top 29-31 athletes to compete in each event on the men’s side, 36-37 swimmers on the women’s side. However, swimmers who qualify in one event are allowed to compete in two more, making for an uneven distribution of events. Last year, the 100 freestyle led with the most entries on the men’s side with 71. The 200 individual medley led on the women’s side with 72. On both sides, the 1650 was predictably the least entered. This gives us a picture of the events most frequently commonly entered, perhaps signaling the most qualified for. But to truly find the most and least difficult to qualify in, a broader approach was required.
Talking Percentages
Last year’s psych sheets showeds us the amount of competitors in each event. But to truly learn more about these cuts, it seems most important to consider how they’ve changed over time. With the cuts shifting every year based on the year prior’s results, uncovering this change helps answer our questions. For example, a more-difficult-to-qualify-for event may be one that’s gotten significantly faster of late.
Change In an Instant
To start, I sought to find the overall percentage change for the meet’s ‘A’ cuts. This could tell us which events have grown the fastest at the top, determining how the standard for a guaranteed spot has changed. This past year, the event which experienced the most change on the men’s side was the 200 freestyle, increasing by 0.58% from the year previous. Luke Hobson of Texas’ record-breaking swim certainly helped raise the standard, not even mentioning Leon Marchand’s record split. On the women’s side, the ‘A’ cut experiencing the biggest increase in speed was the women’s 100 back, faster by 0.43%. Katharine Berkoff won the 100 backstroke by running away from an incredibly balanced field. Just a second separated second through eighth.
Just as important as the change in the ‘A’ cuts was the change in ‘B’ cuts. Representing a larger majority of the swimming world, a change in a ‘B’ cut better shows us the overall change in speed of the event. This time, the 100 backstroke triumphed on the men’s side, improving by 0.65%. For women, the 100 butterfly was the biggest improvement, growing 0.54%. Overall, it seems sprint stroke events were some of the fastest growing this year. The 100 back and fly were the two largest growing on both the men’s and women’s side, signaling a shift.
Change Over Time
Both events’ increases in speed showcase their increases in difficulty over the past year. But competition in an event can always fluctuate at the top. In a specific year, the best athletes may all select one event coincidentally. Another year, a top swimmer could graduate. Factors are constantly shifting. To find the most accurate sample, I broadened my data to five years of tracking.
So what event has changed the most over the past five years? Breaststroke was by far the biggest mover among ‘A’ cuts. The men’s breaststroke got faster by a whopping 1.74% while the women’s 100 breaststroke got faster by 1.01%. As far as ‘B’ cuts, the 100 backstroke changed most for the men at 0.65%, while the 100 fly improved by 0.54%. My biggest takeaway here was the growth of the ‘A’ cuts in comparison to the ‘B’ cuts. Given the smaller sample, ‘A’ cuts will differ yearly more than a ‘B’ cut ever could. This scenario makes the “guaranteed time” unpredictable on a yearly basis, always getting faster and slower at different rates.
What Is Truly the Fastest?
We’ve taken a look so far at how much faster each event has gotten within the year, and overall this half–decade. But we have yet to truly quantify the hardest overall event to qualify in. Looking at how much an event has changed in a year, or even five years, can help us determine its growth. But for a swimmer, the hardest event to qualify in is likely one constantly changing, and getting faster year after year.
To determine what truly was the most difficult to qualify in, I took the mean of the percentage difference between ‘A’ and ‘B’ cuts for each year since 2021. The results were anything but expected. The 100 breaststroke was the most difficult cut to accomplish as far as ‘A’ AND ‘B’ cuts, for both men AND women. The race has grown significantly across ALL of college swimming, not just the elite, or a specific gender. The development of a variety of different stroke rates in the race already made it one of swimming’s most intriguing races, but these results show its depth on the national stage. With great swimmers like Julian Smith and Mona Mcsharry set to take on the event later this month, it’s likely we’ll see even more change in 2026 and beyond.
On the contrary, the “easiest” event to qualify in could be found from the least mean difference (although obviously none of these can be considered “easy”). On the men’s side, the 1650 freestyle experienced the least percentage difference for both ‘A’ and ‘B’ cuts. For the women, the 400 IM and 500 freestyle sped up the least. Due to their overall fortitude, it makes sense for longer races to be more achievable cuts. Generally, fewer swimmers are willing to compete in them, making for less change.
Surely these times will continue to evolve next year. One thing is for certain: College swimming continues to grow faster and faster, a paradigm of excitement in the swimming world.
