Who has the edge in women’s Elite Eight? Our experts predict the winners

The Elite Eight field is set, and it’s certainly living up to the adjective in the regional finals’ moniker.

All four No. 1 seeds (UCLA, South Carolina, USC and Texas) are alive, as are all but one of the No. 2 seeds (UConn, Duke and TCU). LSU is the lone No. 3 seed, but the Tigers could hardly be described as an underdog with a Hall of Fame coach and a star-studded roster.

Of course, The Showdown That Could Have Been is central in the minds of basketball fans. The lack of a rematch between Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins is a disappointment to ESPN’s ratings tracker after Watkins exited the tournament with a season-ending knee injury. But UConn’s quest for a championship and USC’s win-one-for-JuJu mantra will still make for a compelling matchup Monday night.

Our experts are here to break down every Elite Eight game, the round that is widely considered the toughest in the NCAA Tournament. A trip to the Final Four is on the line. Who you got?

No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 3 LSU

3 p.m. Sunday, ABC, Spokane 1 Region

UCLA is the overall top-seeded team, but all that guarantees the Bruins is the opportunity to wear white jerseys against LSU. As UCLA seeks its first Final Four appearance in program history, it faces a more experienced Tigers team with a Hall of Fame coach who ended the Bruins’ season last year.

These are two top-10 offenses that attack the offensive glass and don’t turn over the ball frequently. LSU gets to the foul line more often, and UCLA is more prolific from long range, but both teams find a way to put up points in bunches.

The Tigers have arguably the best big three in college basketball with Aneesah Morrow, Flau’jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams, who combined to average 54.6 points per game. They didn’t need all three of them at their peaks in the Sweet 16 thanks to the uptick in production from redshirt sophomore Sa’Myah Smith. She has improved throughout the season as she regains her athleticism following a torn ACL in November 2023 and now confronts the biggest challenge of her season against Lauren Betts, though she’ll have plenty of help from the guards digging in and Morrow on the boards.

The Bruins need Betts to be the best player in the matchup to win. That means she has to get deep seals and no-move finishes before LSU’s defense crowds her. She’ll also have to protect the rim and box out on the defensive glass to prevent Morrow and the rest of the Tigers from getting second efforts.

Betts has played at a superstar level over the last two rounds, and she’ll have to do so again to exorcise the demons of last season’s Sweet 16 loss.

UCLA has supplemented Betts’ paint dominance with timely outside shooting. LSU concedes a high volume of 3-point attempts, but the Tigers’ opponents make only 26.8 percent of those looks. Whether Londynn Jones, Gabriela Jaquez and Timea Gardiner can make LSU pay for crowding the paint will be critical.

The battle could come down to who can execute in crunch time, where the Tigers have many more reps than UCLA. Nevertheless, though LSU has more options to turn to, the Bruins have the most unguardable one. In an evenly matched contest, take the best player. That’s Betts.

The pick: UCLA

No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 2 Duke

1 p.m. Sunday, ABC, Birmingham 2 Region

Duke is looking to do something Sunday that only three other schools have done this season: beat South Carolina. The Blue Devils and Gamecocks will meet in the Elite Eight with Duke looking not only to return to its first Final Four since 2006 but also avenge a regular-season loss from earlier this season. The Gamecocks led almost the entirety of their early December meeting. After the first quarter, South Carolina was up 28-12, and although Duke outscored the Gamecocks throughout the remainder of the contest, the margin proved too much to overcome as South Carolina cruised to an 81-70 win.

Duke failed to start fast, and a number of its key offensive players struggled. Reigan Richardson, Ashlon Jackson and Toby Fournier combined to score only 13 points. Eighteen turnovers were especially costly for the Blue Devils. They also attempted only seven free throws, down from their season average of 15.7 per game. If Duke can attack the rim and get to the free-throw line, much like Maryland did in its Sweet 16 loss to the Gamecocks, it should be well positioned to hang with South Carolina. But it would be surprising if the Gamecocks don’t play a sharper game Sunday after lacking their usual crispness against the Terrapins.

Besides any added motivation from aiming to reach a fifth consecutive Final Four, several of the top Gamecocks are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Sophomore guard MiLaysia Fulwiley scored 23 points in a four-point win over the Terps and seems due to produce more than she did in December against Duke, when she scored only three points in 15 minutes. Freshman forward Joyce Edwards has also emerged as a more central part of South Carolina’s rotation. Edwards played just 16 minutes when the teams met earlier this season as the Gamecocks’ rotation also still featured Ashlyn Watkins, though she later tore her ACL.

The pick: South Carolina

No. 1 Texas vs. No. 2 TCU

7 p.m. Monday, ESPN, Birmingham 3

The Horned Frogs and Longhorns will meet with a spot in the Final Four serving as just one piece of bragging rights at stake. “We could have met in Corsicana (Texas) and saved money playing ’em, but nonetheless, I think it’s great for our state,” Longhorns coach Vic Schaefer said.

The two Texas programs are enjoying historic seasons. The Longhorns tied their school record for wins (34) with Saturday’s Sweet 16 win, and the Horned Frogs reached their first Elite Eight after defeating Notre Dame. Texas and TCU feature elite offenses, though they score in different ways. TCU relies on its spread pick-and-roll, trying to create playmaking avenues for star Hailey Van Lith. She was prolific in TCU’s Sweet 16 victory over the Irish, scoring a game-high 26 points in its 71-62 win. Van Lith has become an ideal pick-and-roll partner for center Sedona Prince, who will be another focal point for the Longhorns’ stout defense.

Prince scored 21 points and added six rebounds against the Irish, despite picking up a third foul early in the third quarter. How she fares against Texas centers Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre will go a long way in determining who moves on.

The Longhorns play aggressive, physical defense and force nearly 21 turnovers per game, which ranks 16th best in the nation. The Horned Frogs, however, average only 12.1 turnovers. The turnover battle will be another factor to watch.

Texas scores almost entirely because of its effectiveness inside the paint. The Longhorns are last in the nation in 3-point attempt rate, though they did make 3 of 7 against Tennessee. How the Horned Frogs choose to defend Texas wing Madison Booker will be another key question. TCU likely will lean on guards Donovyn Hunter and Agnes Emma-Nnopu to defend, but Booker is taller and longer than both Horned Frogs players, which creates another possible mismatch.

The pick: Texas

No. 1 USC vs. No. 2 UConn

9 p.m. Monday, ESPN, Spokane 4

When the women’s NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed, this potential matchup — a rematch of an Elite Eight game played in Portland last season — instantly became the most highly anticipated Elite Eight game in the field. They had a classic showdown in last season’s tournament and met again in the highest-rated women’s game of the regular season this year. The collision course of the nation’s two top players in JuJu Watkins and Paige Bueckers in the Elite Eight again was just too enticing an hors d’oeuvres to the Final Four.

Without Watkins, who suffered a season-ending ACL tear in the second round, the Trojans rallied against tough Kansas State in the Sweet 16, relying heavily on freshmen Kennedy Smith, Avery Howell and Kayleigh Heckel to perform … which they did. But USC faces its toughest task of the season without its best player. A matchup looms against UConn, which is playing at an extremely high level behind Bueckers, and the opportunity is there to make it to the Final Four for the first time since 1986.

Could it ultimately help the Trojans to know they’re essentially playing with house money at this point? Sure. Could their lack of experience show on the brightest stage of the season? That’s possible, too. There’s a wide range of possibilities considering USC is running with lineups that haven’t been truly battle-tested this season.

That’s not to say the Huskies have been the most consistent team in the country this season, but they are playing their best basketball now. Bueckers is coming off a career-best 40-point showing in the Sweet 16. She has raised her game this postseason with a sense of urgency that makes the Huskies particularly dangerous. Though USC won the regular-season showdown, it required a 25-point performance from Watkins to do so, and UConn senior Azzi Fudd had only recently returned from her ACL recovery journey and played eight minutes.

All of those factors make it hard to pick against UConn. Bueckers might not go for 40 again Monday, but it’s just too hard to imagine her not cutting down those nets.

The pick: UConn

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

USC Trojans, Duke Blue Devils, UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, TCU Horned Frogs, Connecticut Huskies, LSU Lady Tigers, Texas Longhorns, Women’s College Basketball, Women’s NCAA Tournament

2025 The Athletic Media Company

Source link