Who Will Hang a Banner? A Closer Look at the 2026 Big Ten Title Race

Right around this time last year, Jaden Akins, Jase Richardson, and the Michigan State Spartans were gearing up for a dominant seven game win streak to close out conference play and secure the Big Ten Title by three whole games. While this season’s push for the B1G Regular Season Championship is far from over, it’s safe to say that whichever school it is that hangs a banner will likely not be able to boast of a three or more game cushion. The conference is the most top-heavy it has been in recent memory, with Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, and michigan all putting together impressive seasons and making their case for top dog in the Big Ten. Today, we are going to take a look at the remaining schedules for these five squads, and examine the path for each of them to become Big Ten Champs.

Above are the current Big Ten standings- updated after the crazy night of college basketball that was February 10th. Two in-conference overtime thrillers ended in Purdue pulling off a road game versus Nebraska, along with Wisconsin rallying in Champaign for an upset win over Illinois. The results of these two games bring us to a three-way tie for third place in the conference, and four teams with 3 conference losses, as of Feb 11.

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Note: Before we jump into each team’s respective remaining schedule and their path to Big Ten supremacy, I will be using Bart Torvik’s college basketball database for statistics and percentages on odds of winning/losing, and all stats will be what is listed at the time of this article being published. I highly recommend this site for anyone interested in some advanced metrics and interesting statistics, and I’ll attach links for the sources of each specific number included. Now, let’s get into it.

Michigan State

We’ll start off by staying at home with Michigan State. As of February 11 and out of the five competitors, the Spartans are the team that has the smallest percentage chance to win the Big Ten Championship, with a 3.0% chance to win a share of the title, and 0.5% chance to win the conference outright- according to Bart Torvik’s conference odds.

As we State fans well know, MSU is coming off of a 2-2 stretch that was sub-optimal for Sparty’s Big Ten Championship hopes. Had Michigan State not come back to beat Rutgers on the road, or rally to beat Illinois at home, their title hopes would likely have been all but erased. While surviving those first two games kept the Spartans alive in terms of percentages, losses to michigan and Minnesota have tanked Michigan State’s odds. However, while Izzo and company no longer control their own destiny completely, there is still a path to raising a banner for the 2025-26 regular season, albeit, a tough one.

Michigan State got some good news on Tuesday night, with Illinois and Nebraska both picking up their third conference loss- this means MSU, Nebraska, Illinois, and Purdue all have three conference losses. With a win at Wisconsin on Friday, Michigan State would move to 11-3, tied with Illinois for second place in the Big Ten. However, thanks to the February 7 victory over the Illini at the Breslin, the Spartans own the tiebreaker, and would take 2nd place, at least in the short run.

Beating Wisconsin however, will be no easy task. The team has been quietly putting together a solid resume in Madison, with a record of 17-7 (9-4 B1G). Right now, the Badgers are predicted to fall anywhere from a 7-seed to an 11-seed in the tournament, depending on their performance in the next couple weeks along with the Big Ten end of season tournament. They are certainly trending upwards after the road takedown of Illinois. The computer gives Michigan State just a 53% chance at winning on the road this Friday night in a game the Spartans will certainly need to boost their chances to stay alive in the title race.

Then, it’s back home to East Lansing for a Tuesday matchup with Xavier Booker and the UCLA Bruins. Mick Cronin’s team finds themselves just outside our top five Big Ten contenders, with a 9-4 conference record and 17-7 overall record. In terms of bracketology, UCLA is being mocked at similar seed lines as Wisconsin- from some sites projecting a 6-seed to a low end of a 10-seed. Playing a West Coast squad in front of a home crowd makes a big difference for this specific matchup however, as Torvik gives MSU an 81% chance to walk away with a win.

State has to get through the Badgers, Bruins, and next, the Buckeyes to keep their heads above water for the B1G regular season championship. Ohio State is a similarly above average Big Ten squad with a 15-8 record, and currently is listed as one of the last teams in/first teams out for March Madness on most bracket predictions. The Spartans have an 82% chance to win this midday Sunday matchup, and set up a huge road trip to the state of Indiana.

Michigan State’s last game of the month of February will be arguably the toughest, with a Thursday night primetime matchup versus the Boilermakers of Purdue. (That makes four teams in a row with mascots that start with the letter ‘B’ for anyone counting.) Purdue, who we will discuss soon enough in this article, is led by point guard Braden Smith and veteran Head Coach Matt Painter. The black and gold have a 19-4 (9-3) record and is projecting as a 3-seed as it sits today on February 11. Playing in Mackey Arena is never an easy task, especially when both teams are likely to be ranked in the top 15 of the Associated Press poll. Right now, the computer gives State only a 28% shot at pulling off the road victory.

The path gets no easier, as MSU will drive about two hours south to Bloomington, to take on yet another solid basketball team in Indiana. In their first year under Head Coach Darian Devries, IU is off to a 17-8 start as of this article being published- and is also being projected as between an 8 and 11 seed for the NCAA tournament. These two teams already squared off at the Breslin Center on January 13, with MSU pulling away for the 81-60 win. However, when the green and white step into Assembly Hall, the computers give the Spartans only a 46% chance of sweeping the Hoosiers this season.

Finally, on Thursday, March 5th, Michigan State will return home for a second showdown with Rutgers, who is definitely the weakest team remaining on the schedule for Tom Izzo and MSU. Despite what happened during the two team’s last matchup in Piscataway, the Spartans will have a 97% chance to emerge victorious in round two of this battle. This penultimate game of State’s season comes at an awkward time, between tough matchups, and certainly has the potential to be yet another trap game versus the Scarlet Knights. Also of note, this game will be Senior Night at the Bres, where MSU has not had a loss while celebrating its’ graduating players since 2012, in Draymond Green’s final home game.

If Michigan State is able to get through this tough stretch of six games, the final game of the season has the potential to have some serious Big Ten Championship implications. Yes, a couple of unlikely dominoes would have to fall, but there is definitely a world in which MSU vs michigan on March 8 determines who takes home a share/sole possession of the B1G. Just 12 days ago, MSU dropped an emotional home game to the wolverines, and will be thirsty for revenge. As the current first place team in the conference, Dusty May and his mercenaries have a 22-1 (12-1) record as of today, but do have a challenge of a final seven games, that we will discuss later in this article. However, Bart Torvik does not believe in the green and white in this one, giving the Spartans just a 14% chance of splitting the season series with their rivals.

According to the computer, MSU will finish the regular season 4-3, with losses to Purdue, Indiana, and michigan. This would bring Michigan State’s final record to 24-7 (14-6), and well out of the race to hang a second consecutive Big Ten Champs banner. This would place them squarely in the 3-seed to 5-seed range. However, I can definitely talk myself into the Spartans finishing this stretch somewhere closer to 6-1, or dare I say 7-0.

State’s most important game left is without question the highly anticipated rematch with michigan. If michigan drops two more conference games and MSU can win out, including a road W vs their rivals, the Spartans lock in a share of the Big Ten title. This will be a tall task.

The good news for Sparty fans? Everything that State has done so far this season suggests that there is not a team left on this schedule (or not) who MSU cannot compete with, whether that be the seven mentioned or a future non-conference opponent in the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue

Even after their big win against Nebraska Tuesday night, Purdue is the next longest shot to walk away from the 2025-26 team on top of the conference standings. Sitting at 20-4 overall and 10-3 in conference, PU is in a deadlock with Michigan State, and would be considered just ahead of Nebraska thanks to the head-to-head victory. Our computer gives the Boilermakers an 8.4% chance to earn a share of the B1G championship, and a 1.6% chance at emerging the lone champs of the Big Ten. Let’s take a look at their final stretch of games.

As is the nature of the conference this season, Purdue has far from an easy last seven games of the regular season. Starting off with a road game at Iowa- in which the 18-5 Hawkeyes will look to grasp any last hopes of inserting themselves back into regular season championship contention- will be a toss-up of a game, with the Boilers and Iowa each having an even 50/50 shot at winning this one.

Next up, Purdue gets the #2 ranked wolverines at home. In a game where nearly all of the remaining Big Ten contenders will be rooting for the black and gold, Purdue gets just a 44% chance at pulling off the upset and taking down u-m. A win here would not only open the door for the rest of the pack, but also give PU the all-important tiebreaker over umich, and a legitimate shot at winning the title outright if they can stay perfect and u-m drops another conference game.

The brutal late-season campaign continues for the Boilermakers at home versus archrival Indiana, who have already knocked of Purdue once this season already, on January 27th in Assembly Hall. Despite this, the computer does like PU to pull away in this one with an 80% mark of expected victory. Next up is Michigan State, who will travel to Mackey for arguably their toughest road test of 2025-26. As we discussed earlier, MSU only has a 28% chance at this one on Bart Torvik, which leaves a 72% confidence rating in the Boilers.

Thankfully for Matt Painter’s squad, the road lightens up a bit, with PU’s final two road games coming at not exactly daunting venues in Schottenstein Center of Ohio State and Welsh-Ryan Arena of a struggling Wildcats team. To wrap up, March 7 will bring a Senior Day challenge for Purdue against Wisconsin- a game in which Purdue is actually getting very good numbers to emerge victorious in- with Torvik tipping the cap to the home court advantage and experience of the Boilermakers with an 84% number.

Since Purdue only faces top-ranked michigan once this year, their path is slightly simpler than our Spartans’. Win out (including a win vs u-m), and PU only needs two conference losses for the wolverines to take home sole possession of the B1G. Like so many teams on this list, their odds hang in the balance, and almost entirely depend on how they will perform against michigan next Tuesday.

Nebraska

2025-26 has brought a historic season for the Cornhuskers, and the basketball program to new heights under Fred Hoiberg. However, the once-undefeated Huskers have fallen on some tougher times as of late, losing three of their last four matchups against u-m, Illinois, and now Purdue. With their loss to Purdue at home Tuesday night, Nebraska has a 21-3 (10-3) record, and has fallen into the three-way tie for third place with MSU and Purdue. Fortunately for Husker fans, their odds remain ever-so-slightly above Purdue’s to win the Big Ten- at 10.4% to win a share and 1.7% to take the B1G for themselves. This is partially due to what the rest of the season will look like for Big Red.

Aside from likely wins versus Northwestern, Penn State, and Maryland at home (91%, 96%, and 96% chances of winning, respectively), there is definitely some intrigue in the remaining schedule for UN-Lincoln, even despite no ranked opponents left on the Huskers schedule. A late night, midweek showdown with an ever-dangerous opponent (and somewhat of a rival?) in Iowa on February 17th is no sure thing, with the Huskers given only a 43% chance of winning on Torvik.

Nebraska will also take a late-season trip out to Southern California to play the Trojans and Bruins, and despite being the likely favorite in both of these games, road trips like these can always pose as trap games. I especially would have my eye on the matchup with UCLA, that will tip at 11 PM Eastern, or 10 PM Central, at the Pauley Pavilion for the Cornhuskers.

The Huskers will get a quick 5-day break after their trip to SoCal, before senior day at home versus Iowa yet again. In terms of teams that you’d want to see twice before the end of the season, Iowa is not high on the list, with their consistent knack for competing with the highest levels of teams in this conference.

All in all? Not the toughest remaining seven games for the Huskers, but no cakewalk. With Hoiberg and co. now a part of the three-way tie in the third place slot, Nebraska fans will be rooting for Michigan State, interestingly enough, as the only team out of the top dogs that UN-L holds an outright tiebreak advantage over.

Illinois

Moving right along, we have the Fighting Illini. If you stayed up late enough Tuesday night, you were treated to an instant classic between the Illini and Badgers of Wisconsin. While the Euro-five of Illinois battled, they were unable to overcome a barrage of inspired play from the streaky Badgers, and dropped a home loss in Champaign to the tune of a 92-90 overtime thriller. This trip-up was devastating for U of I’s Big Ten Championship odds, dropping from 40% to win a share before the game, to just 21% after the loss. In terms of winning a solo Big Ten crown, Illinois went from 17.7% to only 5.9%. Now sitting at 20-5 (11-3), see below what the rest of February and early March holds for Brad Underwood’s team.

This schedule is not as grueling as Michigan State’s or Purdue’s, but I would definitely give the nod of difficulty to Illinois over Nebraska, who have relatively similar schedules to round out 2025-26. Just like the Huskers, the Illini will catch a plane to Los Angeles for road games at USC and UCLA. In a pair of primetime games in which UofI will be favored in, Bart Torvik gives Illinois a 77% chance to defeat USC, but a more conservative 68% shot at topping UCLA.

Let’s not get too far out ahead of our skis just yet, however, as Illinois should be able to put an end to their two-game skid soon enough this weekend, as Bart Torvik sees their home game versus Indiana (and later vs Oregon) as a likely wins, with odds of 83% against IU, and 95% against the Ducks.

That leaves a home matchup with michigan, and an away finale against Maryland. Unsurprisingly, Illinois will have a great chance (92%) at winning in the Xfinity Center against a weak Terrapin team to end the regular season on a high note, even on a senior day celebrating graduating Terps.

Now, to the big one. Illinois gets to play host to uofm just before the calendar turns to March, and once again the rest of the pack will be supporting the orange and blue, hoping for the chaos scenario in which michigan picks up two more conference losses and opens the door to the field. But enough on our rivals, we’ll get to their section. The Illini faithful will certainly be out in full force for this one, as the current get-in price for a ticket at the State Farm Center is $312.

How does Illinois match up against u-m? Not bad at all. There will be strength on strength matchups all over the court as the two teams duke it out to determine the fate of the Big Ten title, as the two teams both possess great size and rebounding ability. If the Illini are able to turn it around after this two-game slip, and get their high-powered offense back to where it was in December and January, it will provide another strength on strength struggle against u-m’s nationally renowned defense.

The path for UofI is similar to all of the teams we have already discussed. Win out, or be as close as possible to winning out, and get some help from Purdue or Michigan State, if either can defeat the wolverines. However, if there are any teams that seem to be trending downwards going into March, Illinois is one of them. Not where Underwood wants to be. That being said, it seems that Illini guard Kylan Boswell may be very close to a return, and getting the crafty, quick Champaign native back running the point could definitely spark a run for Illinois.

michigan

Unfortunately, but finally, we have made it to that school down the road. Currently, the mercenary-laden team of wolverines possesses a record of 22-1 (12-1), and an 87.4% chance of winning a share of the Big Ten. As for sole possession of the title, they are sitting at an impressive 67.2%% chance, unquestionably boosted by last night’s events. Let’s take a look at their final stretch of eight games for this team with the best odds to hang a banner.

Starting off in Evanston, u-m will have a 91% chance at taking down Northwestern on the road later tonight. The ‘Cats have a 10-14 overall record, and only 2 conference wins to 11 losses, and should be no problem for michigan. A home matchup versus UCLA this Saturday is also one that u-m should have no trouble with according to Bart Torvik, which gives them a 93% chance to win. While the early tip-off time for a West Coast team does not help Mick Cronin and the Bruins’ case, I am not sure I agree with the degree of confidence the computer has in michigan in this one. UCLA has been competitive in essentially every conference game this season en route to their 9-4 B1G record, and also went wire-to-wire with top ranked Arizona. Maybe it is the Spartan homer in me, but I can reason my way into u-m being on upset alert for this one. (Until I remember Xavier Booker will be playing defense for the Bruins- yikes).

However, things will get much tougher after UCLA. The weasels will play 4 of their last 6 games on the road, with three coming against ranked opponents (and Iowa not far behind). Starting off, a road trip to the ever-daunting Mackey Arena will prove pivotal for the Big Ten standings. Purdue will be just coming off of back-to-back road games against Nebraska and Iowa, and the Boiler faithful will certainly be ready to host a top-3 team. The computer gives u-m just a 56% chance at winning on the road, their least confident prediction of a win for u-m left on schedule. What does this mean for the rest of the field? The first definite chance to shake up the existing Big Ten title percentages, and lots of new Purdue fans.

A loss to Purdue for u-m would crack the door open, and a loss to Illinois on the road would firmly prop it open for Michigan State and the rest of the 3-loss Big Ten teams. Before u-m gets to the Illini or the Spartans though, they will have a bizarre late February non-conference showdown in Washington D.C. against #4 Duke. In what is being called the “Duel in the District” and officially the Edward Jones Capital Showcase, Dusty May’s team will be challenged by projected first overall draft pick Cameron Boozer, Isaiah Evans, and the rest of a Blue Devil team that topped MSU in a well fought battle in East Lansing this December. The predictors at Bart Torvik continue their positive view of um in this one, giving them a rather generous 66% chance of winning this neutral site game. While everyone (and I mean everyone) in the Big Ten aside from u-m themselves would love to see michigan drop this game, a win or loss in D.C. will obviously not impact the wolverines conference record, and therefore have little-to-no effect on the Big Ten race.

After an intense two game stretch away from the mitten, u-m will return home for a favorable tune-up against the Golden Gophers of Minnesota. Unsurprisingly, Torvik gives the home team a 96% chance at taking care of a feisty Minnesota squad.

There are certainly no more gimmes for michigan after Minnesota, however, as u-m will travel to take on Illinois in a game we’ve already broken down a bit above. This game has the potential to be a must-win affair for the Illini and rest of the pack, depending on how the um vs Purdue game goes, if they all want to stay alive in the Big Ten race. The X-factors for the wolverines in this one will be staying solid on the boards, quieting the home Illinois crowd, and defending the perimeter against the outside shooting prowess of the Illini. As for the computer, it gives uofm the ever-so-slight edge at a 51% shot at winning.

May and company will remain on the road for their next match, a late night game versus the Hawkeyes of Iowa, who are eyeing a 7/8/9 seed in March as of today (2/11). As is the nature of being a top-5 team, michigan can expect a sold out Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and (hopefully) a valiant effort from Iowa, who may serve as the last line of defense against u-m securing a share of the Big Ten title. As of now, Bart Torvik does expect Iowa to hang in there, but ultimately gives uofm 70% odds at winning their penultimate regular season game.

And finally, back to the March 8 second edition of one of the best rivalries in college basketball. Jeremy Fears and Michigan State will look to get revenge on the wolverines and Dusty May’s controversial postgame comments, while uofm will look to sweep MSU for the first time since 2018. In what will be an emotional game with a national audience regardless, this game also has the potential to have serious implications on the outcome of Big Ten Tournament seeding, and, of course, who will be the Regular Season Champions. While we here at TOC will be more than ready to preview this matchup once again come early March, for now, Spartan fans and wolverine fans know each other, and they know each other well. The squads both understand the other’s preferred style of play, and now comprehend the importance of this rivalry for all parties involved. Does MSU have the composure to overcome the talented wolverines? Can michigan beat a quality Spartan team two times in one year? I’m already excited for this game that is now less than one month away.

Bart Torvik (who I’m starting to believe might be a part of the usual biased, pro-michigan media) says u-m has an 86% chance to win this game and all but rip the Big Ten out of Spartan hands. Let’s hope Tom Izzo and his team can say otherwise March 8th.

Long Story Short

*Takes deep breath* Okay. That was a serious flurry of statistical predictions. For those of you who are not numbers people, here’s the skinny: the Big Ten title is still on the table for Michigan State, but they will need nothing short of a heroic effort to take it out of enemy hands. MSU will need to go on a run nearly identical to last year’s, beat teams like Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, and michigan all on the road, and get some help from fellow B1G squads to knock u-m off of their pedestal before the March 8th matchup.

Before we wrap up, here is one final look at Bart Torvik’s odds (that I referenced throughout) on how the Big Ten will shake out.

I’ll leave you with this- if there’s ever been a time where the saying, “My favorite team is Michigan State, and my second-favorite team is whoever’s playing michigan” applies, it is right now. Go Green, and here’s to proving the computer wrong.

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Who Will Hang a Banner? A Closer Look at the 2026 Big Ten Title Race

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