Josh Berry’s triumph at Las Vegas marked his first career Cup win. It came in his 53rd career Cup start.
With Berry’s victory, there are only 10 of the 36 full-time NASCAR Cup Series drivers that don’t have a victory in the series.
What are the chances fans will see another first-time winner this season? It seems somewhat likely, as several of these drivers have the potential to find their way to victory lane.
Who will it be? We’ll count them down from least likely to most likely:
10. Cody Ware (111 career starts)
Ware has one top five and two top 10s in his career, driving for his family’s Rick Ware Racing — the only full-time active Cup organization without a victory. He has led 10 laps in his career and has not finished better than 24th this season. Ware is 0-for-146 in national series starts.
9. Ty Dillon (250 starts)
Dillon has two career top five finishes and seven top 10s in his career, with a best finish this season of 14th at Daytona. Kaulig Racing has two Cup victories (AJ Allmendinger in 2021 and 2023) in its history. Dillon is 26th in the standings and a top 25 finish in the standings would be considered a respectable season. He has one win in 165 Xfinity starts and three victories in 76 truck starts.
8. Riley Herbst (13 starts)
Herbst has two career top 10s but has not finished better than 17th (his finishes in each of the first three races) this year in his rookie season at 23XI Racing. He has led 10 laps in Cup racing in his career. Herbst has three career NASCAR victories in 176 Xfinity starts.
7. John Hunter Nemechek (82 starts)
Nemechek has one top five and nine top 10s in his career. He suffered through a miserable season last year at Legacy Motor Club. And while this one has started better, as he currently sits 15th in the series standings, he has led only 37 laps in his Cup career. This organization still seems to be a bit away from challenging for the win most weekends. Nemechek has 11 wins in 111 Xfinity starts and 13 wins in 149 truck starts.
6. Zane Smith (50 starts)
Smith has two top five finishes and six top 10s, with nine laps led in his Cup career. He had a frustrating rookie season at Spire, where things improved over the second half of the year when he already knew he needed a new home for 2025. He landed at Front Row Motorsports, the organization for which he won a truck championship in a series, where he has nine wins in 97 starts.
5. Noah Gragson (80 starts)
Gragson has two top fives and nine top 10s in his career. He needs to lead more laps to be considered more than an occasional threat for a win. He has just 17 laps led in his career. Of those on this list, he has more Xfinity wins (13 in 139 starts) than any other driver. He also won two races in 47 truck starts.
4. Todd Gilliland (113 starts)
Gilliland has one top five and 11 top 10s and is considered the leader of Front Row Motorsports. He has led 148 laps in his Cup career. That experience puts him higher on the list than his teammates Gragson and Smith. Gilliland has three career NASCAR wins, all in trucks (94 starts).
3. Carson Hocevar (50 starts)
Hocevar has two top fives and seven top 10s, while leading 17 laps in his career. But of anyone on this list, he has spent more time running in the top 10, as he has earned points in five of the 10 stages this season. In his second year at Spire Motorsports, Hocevar’s upside seems limitless. He had four wins in 77 truck starts before moving to Cup.
2. Ryan Preece (192 starts)
Preece has five top fives and 17 top 10s with 219 laps led in his career. He seems revitalized driving for RFK Racing and sits 18th in the standings. He is a driver that seems more apt to be in the right place at the right time for a win than most of the others on this list. Preece has two wins in 62 Xfinity starts and two wins in 12 truck starts.
1. Ty Gibbs (92 starts)
Gibbs has obviously struggled this year. He currently sits at 34th in the standings. He hasn’t finished better than 16th and hasn’t earned any stage points. But Gibbs is with the best organization of all the drivers on this list. He has 12 top fives and 23 top 10s and last year, he seemed to be on the brink of winning a race. Gibbs has led 531 laps in his career, and while he has not had the season he wanted, if he gets back to running up front, few would be surprised. He won 12 Xfinity races in just 65 starts in the series, where he won the 2022 title.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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