Lady Vols basketball hasn’t looked like an NCAA Tournament team over the last month of the season.
Tennessee (16-13) got blown out by program-record margins at UConn and South Carolina and lost to teams on the bubble like Mississippi State and Texas A&M. The Lady Vols showed slight improvement in the margin of their losses, but they still lost 10 of their last 12 games.
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It was the kind of stretch that could knock a team out of the tournament field and begs the question – are Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament hopes in danger?
Will the Lady Vols miss first NCAA Tournament?
Tennessee is the only program in women’s college basketball to never miss an NCAA Tournament. That streak will not be broken this season.
If the Lady Vols had won just one game at the SEC Tournament, ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme said March 9 that Tennessee wouldn’t be such a big topic of discussion. But the Lady Vols lost to Alabama, extending their losing streak to seven games.
Tennessee is still widely projected as a No. 8 seed, and it’s not in danger of missing its first NCAA Tournament ever.
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Why Tennessee won’t miss NCAA Tournament
Tennessee’s strength of schedule and five Quad 1 wins are part of what’s keeping it in the tournament field. The Lady Vols played all four projected No. 1 seeds and they’ve played 10 of the top 20 teams in the NCAA NET rankings.
Tennessee went 5-11 in Quad 1 games, and its 16 total Quad 1 matchups outnumber most of the teams ranked ahead of it in the NET. UT is ranked No. 23 in the NET rankings, No. 33 in wins above bubble and No. 4 in NET strength of schedule going into Selection Sunday.
With 37 at-large bids up for grabs, Tennessee should be in the field based off those metrics.
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Why Charlie Creme believes Lady Vols are safely in NCAA Tournament
One of the reasons Creme believes Tennessee is safely in the tournament field is because of how its resume compares to teams on the bubble.
“If you don’t think they should be in the field … just look at the bubble teams. Even look at the teams in the 10-seed range. Is Tennessee better than Nebraska, Arizona State, Princeton … Clemson, Virginia?” Creme said. “And I think right down the line, the answer to that question is yes, they are better.”
Nebraska is one of the last four teams in the field in Creme’s latest projection, and if Nebraska is in the field, he said Tennessee is a “no-brainer.” The Huskers only have one Quad 1 win and a losing record against the top 100 teams – and they had as bad of a February as Tennessee against lesser competition.
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Creme chalked up the poor ending to the regular season to the backloaded schedule, which included six top-10 teams and has made the Lady Vols harder to evaluate.
What is the Lady Vols’ lowest NCAA Tournament seed ever?
Tennessee is widely projected as a No. 8 seed going into Selection Sunday, which would be the second-lowest NCAA Tournament seed in program history.
The Lady Vols’ lowest seeding ever was a No. 11 seed in former coach Holly Warlick’s last season, and even that team was 19-12 going into the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Unless Texas A&M gets into the field at 14-12, Tennessee is set to tie the mark for the fewest number of wins by an at-large team over the last 40 years (excluding records from the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season).
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Barring a miracle run to the Final Four, Tennessee is about to conclude only the second season in program history without reaching 20 wins in the NCAA era, excluding the 2020-21 season.
If the Lady Vols lose in the first round, it will only be the third time in program history they have lost in the NCAA first round. Before losing in the first round in 2019, Tennessee’s only other first-round exit was in 2009.
Cora Hall is the University of Tennessee women’s athletics reporter for Knox News. Email: cora.hall@knoxnews.com; X: @corahalll; Bluesky: @corahall.bsky.social. Support strong local journalism and unlock premium perks: subscribe.knoxnews.com/offers
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Will Tennessee women’s basketball miss first NCAA Tournament ever?
