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Will Michigan basketball be a 1-seed? March Madness bracketology

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Will Michigan basketball be a 1-seed? March Madness bracketology

EUGENE, OR − Selection Sunday for March Madness is less than two months away and with that it’s time to check in on where Michigan basketball stands.

The short version: It’s in fantastic shape. The Wolverines (16-1, 6-1 Big Ten) have just one blemish on the year – a surprising home loss to Wisconsin earlier in January. Only three of U-M’s 16 victories have been by fewer than 10 points; 11 have come by 25 points or more.

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Michigan comes off a pair of victories in the Pacific Northwest but can’t spend too long patting itself on the back, as it welcomes two more middle-of-the-pack Big Ten squads to Crisler Center this week, including rival Ohio State.

Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) blocks a shot by Washington Huskies guard Zoom Diallo (5) during the second half at Alaska Airlines Arena in Seattle on Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026.

Before any previews of those, it’s time to peek back at how U-M got to this point. Each Monday, the Free Press will take a look at Michigan’s previous week and assess how its résumé stacks up to the competition.

Michigan basketball NCAA tournament résumé for 2026 March Madness

Michigan basketball NET rankings: No. 1 (Last week: No. 1)

All rankings entering Monday.

Quad 1 record: 5-0.

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Quad 2 record: 6-1.

Quad 3 record: 4-0.

Quad 4 record: 1-0

Michigan basketball KenPom rankings: No. 1 (Last week: No. 1)

Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) drives to the basket against defense by Oregon Ducks forward Devon Pryor (22) during the second half at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026.

Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) drives to the basket against defense by Oregon Ducks forward Devon Pryor (22) during the second half at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026.

All rankings entering Monday.

Offensive efficiency: No. 6.

Defensive efficiency: No. 2.

Michigan basketball bracketology projections

ESPN: 1-seed in the Midwest Region vs. winner of Maryland Eastern Shore and Prairie View

CBS: 1-seed in Midwest Region vs. Tennessee Martin

USA Today: 1-seed in Midwest Region vs. Dartmouth

Bleacher Report: 1-seed in Midwest Region vs. winner of Merrimack and Maryland-Eastern Shore

Michigan basketball scores last week

Jan 14: 82-72 over Washington − It was a big night from the Wolverines’ big three in Seattle as U-M’s frontcourt of Aday Mara, Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg dominated the Huskies. Mara had a season-high 20 points, Johnson added 18 and a career-best 16 rebounds and Lendeborg posted 14 points and seven boards as Michigan led essentially wire-to-wire. Nimari Burnett also reached the career 1,000-point mark, and U-M overcame the first scoreless game for Elliot Cadeau in the maize and blue. Michigan struggled shooting, making just five of 22 3-point attempts.

Oregon Ducks forward Kwame Evans Jr. (10) has his shot blocked by Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) during the second half at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026.

Oregon Ducks forward Kwame Evans Jr. (10) has his shot blocked by Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) during the second half at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026.

Jan. 17: 81-71 over Oregon – Despite their second straight 10-point margin of the week, U-M got there in a completely different way. Cadeau led the way with 17 points while Burnett tied a season high with 15, including a team-high three 3-pointers. Michigan shot much better from long range, hitting nine of 23 (39.1%) 3s, its first time over 32% in its past six contests. The Wolverines did struggle with turnovers (14), which led to 21 points for the Ducks, and allowed 15 offensive rebounds for another 20 points. But they came up big when it mattered in the second half, as U-M ripped off an 18-6 run led by Mara, who scored eight of his 12 during the stretch. Will Tschetter provided the energy all game –even when others didn’t in the first half – scoring eight points and grabbing a season-high five boards while playing a season-high 23 minutes.

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How NCAA tournament committee selects at-large teams

Record: The team’s overall record, conference record and nonconference record.

Strength of schedule: The strength of the opponents the team played against.

Head-to-head results: The results of games between the teams being compared.

Conference championships: Whether a conference championship was won in the regular season or tournament.

Common opponents: The results of games against common opponents.

Adjusted Net Efficiency (NET): The NCAA’s preferred metric measuring a team’s overall performance during the regular season.

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Team Value Index: A results-oriented component of the NET that ranks teams based on who they beat and where they played.

Rating Percentage Index (RPI): A formula that ranks teams using a team’s winning percentage, opponents’ success and opponents’ strength of schedule.

Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball bracketology and where Wolverines stand

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