COLUMBIA — South Carolina women’s basketball has one final game for the 2025-26 regular season.
The No. 3 Gamecocks (28-2, 14-1) play No. 18 Kentucky (21-8, 8-7 SEC) on March 1 (2 p.m. ET, SEC Network) in Lexington.
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They already clinched the SEC regular season title with the 112-71 win over Missouri on Feb. 26 but a win will help further secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Kenny Brooks is in his second season as coach of the Wildcats and is 0-1 against Gamecocks coach Dawn Staley. These two teams met in the last game of the regular season a year ago, with the Gamecocks winning 78-66 in Columbia.
Here’s what to know about the matchup.
Matchup to watch: Clara Strack vs. Madina Okot
Clara Strack is Kentucky’s 6-foot-5 center who averages 16.4 points and 10.2 rebounds.
Madina Okot is 6-6, averaging 13.8 points and 10.9 rebounds and scored 26 points and pulled down 17 rebounds against Missouri.
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They are both incredibly versatile on offense, with Strack’s turnaround jumper a key move that’s been hard to stop. Okot hit five 3-pointers across two games from Feb. 19-22, further proving both can create their own offense in addition to textbook post work inside the paint.
Okot averages 1.6 blocks per game and Strack averages 2.7 in addition to a team-high 1.3 steals.
Strack had 23 points and eight rebounds against South Carolina last season but seven points and 11 rebounds when she played Okot and Mississippi State. Okot only had four points and two rebounds that game in 12 minutes of action.
Tonie Morgan leads the nation in assists
The guard matchup that will likely play a major factor is South Carolina’s Raven Johnson stopping Tonie Morgan from getting passes wherever she wants, as she leads the nation in 8.3 assists per game.
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Morgan also scores 14.2 points per game, which means she does it all for Kentucky and as Johnson is South Carolina’s best defender, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Staley gives her the challenge.
She shoots 50.6% with 2-point shots and 36.5% from 3-point range so the further Johnson pushes her out, the less comfortable she’ll be.
According to South Carolina, ranked opponents are shooting 4% lower with Johnson on the court and the Gamecocks have turned 67.3% of her steals on defense directly into fast-break points.
South Carolina leads nation in field goal % defense
The Gamecocks have limited their opponents to shoot an average of 33.5% which is the best in the nation. Their offense hasn’t suffered either, shooting a third-best 51.1% from the floor.
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Teams are averaging 56 points per game against South Carolina but Kentucky isn’t far behind allowing 59.1 which is third in the SEC behind Texas and the Gamecocks.
Since losing to Oklahoma on Jan. 22, South Carolina’s average margin of victory is 29.3, and of those nine wins, five were against ranked opponents.
South Carolina vs Kentucky score prediction, keys to game
Given the comparable stats and personnel, a lot of this game will come down to execution and effort.
If Okot and Strack are battling, Joyce Edwards has to be an ex-factor and dominate her own matchup, and if Johnson can’t help off on defense to stay tight on Morgan, whoever guards Asia Boone (10.6 ppg) has to lock in.
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Teonni Key, a 6-5 forward will be a huge defensive assignment for Edwards, as she has a two-inch height advantage and averages 7.1 rebounds, compared to Edwards who averages 6.2.
South Carolina 72, Kentucky 60: Ta’Niya Latson helps South Carolina on offense to dominate the guard matchups and alleviate the scoring pressure on Okot and Edwards.
Lulu Kesin covers South Carolina athletics for The Greenville News and the USA TODAY Network. Email her at LKesin@usatodayco.com. Follow her on X@Lulukesin and Bluesky@bylulukesin.bsky.social
This article originally appeared on Greenville News: South Carolina vs Kentucky predictions for Dawn Staley, Gamecocks
