Will South Carolina women’s basketball beat LSU for 18th straight time? Our prediction

South Carolina women’s basketball has its biggest road test of the 2025-26 season.

The No. 3 Gamecocks (24-2, 10-1 SEC) play the No. 6 LSU Tigers (22-3, 8-3) on Feb. 14 (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC) in the Pete Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

It’s a rivarly game and the first time star guard MiLaysia Fulwiley faces her former team and coach Dawn Staley since she transferred to LSU from South Carolina.

Here’s what to know about the primetime matchup. South Carolina has won the last 17 games in the series, with LSU’s last win in 2012.

MiLaysia Fulwiley isn’t LSU point guard, Jada Richard is

Fulwiley said one reason she went to LSU was so she could learn the point guard position. It’s not that she hasn’t so far but it’s mainly been Jada Richard playing point for LSU.

Richard is a sophomore averaging nine points and 3.3 assists per game.

Fulwiley is averaging 13.4 points, the second most on the team and is dishing 3.6 assists and getting 3.2 steals as well.

After the loss to Texas on Feb. 5, coach Kim Mulkey said how she had Fulwiley running point one moment then wing the other. So it’s expected she dabbles in both but it’s unlikely Fulwiley is running the offense the entire game.

So far, she’s still coming off the bench like she did for South Carolina, averaging 21.6 minutes. She started one game.

LSU’s Flau’Jae Johnson, MiKaylah Williams key for South Carolina

Raven Johnson is South Carolina’s best defender so whoever she isn’t guarding, South Carolina will need to lock down.

Flau’Jae Johnson averages 13.8 points and is a veteran guard. She leads the team in 3-point shooting at 43.9%. She’s scored 10 or more points the last three games against South Carolina, including 13 each of the last two.

MiKaylah Williams averages 13.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists and shoots 51.5% from the floor. She’s everywhere for LSU and a play-maker. She scored 20 points in both games against Texas.

She’s hit five 3-pointers across the last two games and at 6 feet tall gives trouble to both guards and forwards.

Dawn Staley’s record vs Kim Mulkey

Staley is 6-2 vs Mulkey in her coaching career.

Mulkey has been the coach of LSU since the 2021-22 season. Before arriving in Baton Rouge, she coached for 21 seasons at Baylor. She beat South Carolina twice at Baylor but she has yet to beat Staley with the Tigers.

On Dec. 2, 2018, Mulkey’s Baylor team beat the Gamecocks 94-69. The same season, Mulkey won again in the NCAA Tournament 93-68. Staley didn’t beat Baylor and Mulkey until Nov. 30, 2019, when South Carolina won 74-59.

The last five wins have gone to Staley.

Why South Carolina’s Joyce Edwards, Madina Okot matter vs LSU

In previous years this matchup was about Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese. This year guard play is more of a factor, but how South Carolina’s Joyce Edwards (20.3 ppg) and Madina Okot (13.2 ppg) play in the paint will be critical.

Kate Koval is LSU’s tallest player at 6-foot-5 and has started 12 games, averaging 9.6 points and 6.7 rebounds.

Freshman Grace Knox has started 11 games at 6-2 and is a versatile forward but has zero 3-point attempts South Carolina might try to push her away from the basket.

Amiya Joyner is 6-2 and averages 7.1 rebounds, 9.9 points and 20 minutes and has started 14.

South Carolina had 54 points in the paint against Tennessee and Edwards had 20, her fourth straight SEC game with over 20 which set a program record.

Key South Carolina, LSU stats

The Tigers average 96.6 points, which leads the nation. South Carolina is third with 88.1. LSU is also first in bench points with 40.6.

In SEC play, LSU is averaging 82.1 points and South Carolina is averaging 81.9.

Both teams are also top-four in the country in field goal percentage defense. South Carolina leads at 33.3% and LSU is fourth at 33.7%. Opponents are scoring 55.7 points against the Gamecocks (15th) and 57.8 against the Tigers (37th).

LSU loves to play fast and run the floor like Oklahoma did, so in addition to not turning it over, South Carolina’s transition defense really matters.

Here’s a closer look at how these two teams size up, including where they rank nationally.

All numbers from Her Hoops Stats.

2-point %: South Carolina 56.2% (4th), LSU 55% (10th)
3-point %: South Carolina 37.9% (8th), LSU 38.2% (5th)
Field goal %: South Carolina 51.7% (3rd), LSU 51.6% (4th)
Field goal efficiency %: South Carolina 56.4% (3rd), LSU 55.5% (8th)
Points per play: South Carolina 1.0 (4th), LSU 0.99 (5th)
Opponents points per play: South Carolina 0.64 (2nd), LSU 0.65 (3rd)

South Carolina vs LSU score prediction

South Carolina 85, LSU 80: This matchup will come down to guard defense and mental toughness but also which versions of Joyce Edwards and Madina Okot South Carolina gets.

Lulu Kesin covers South Carolina athletics for The Greenville News and the USA TODAY Network. Email her at LKesin@usatodayco.com. Follow her on X@Lulukesin and Bluesky‪@bylulukesin.bsky.social‬

This article originally appeared on Greenville News: South Carolina vs LSU predictions for Dawn Staley vs Kim Mulkey

Source link