Whenever a new set of rules is adopted by a league, like the NBA’s new anti-tanking draft lottery, there will always be unintended consequences.
Now, when the system is as absurd as the one implemented by NBA commissioner Adam Silver, there’s going to be lots and lots of those types of ripple effects.
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Last week, the league adopted a new draft lottery system that flattened odds overall and will punish teams for both being really bad and for being bad for a consecutive number of years. In doing that, it also brings play-in teams into the equation, increasing their odds of earning a top pick in the draft now.
For example, last year, the Hornets lost the second play-in game, landing in the 14th spot in the lottery. Subsequently, they had a 2.4% chance of moving into the top four and a 0.5% chance at the No. 1 pick. Under the new rules, which go into effect next season, the team in the 14th spot in the lottery now has a 2.7% chance at the first pick.
However, importantly, all 16 picks will be drawn now instead of just the top four with the remainder of the lottery sorted by record. So, a team could make the play-in, lose, and end up with a top pick in the draft all in the span of a couple of months.
By nature, those unintended consequences won’t be known until teams start operating under the new rules and find the loopholes. We’ve already started to see them as teams read the rules, most notably in that teams can not have top-five picks even if they own another team’s pick.
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To provide another example, the Nets own the Nuggets’ 2032 first round pick. If Brooklyn picked in the top five in the 2030 and 2031 drafts but has things figured out while Denver stinks and would provide them another top-five pick, the Nets will not be allowed to pick in the top five even though it’s not their own pick.
Great work, Adam Silver.
More of these types of details will be found out moving forward, but an unintended result of all this could be the freedom with which picks are traded. If a team can so easily move into a top pick despite being a middling team, the calculation for making a deal changes.
No longer is a team that is going to be battling for the play-in trading a straightforward late-lottery pick. The odds and format will change things. Unless you’re a team with a clear direction, then second-guessing is going to come into play now.
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And that could help the Lakers.
LA is not second-guessing about their future. They have a north star in Luka Dončić and a clear path to contention every year. They also have draft picks to trade and a roster that needs reshaping. There should be no hesitation on their end to go and find upgrades.
Teams might see the new lottery odds, realize how injuries could derail a season and decide to take the risk on a future Lakers pick. At the same time, if the other teams aren’t as willing to make those deals, then the picks could
If they enter the offseason with aggression and other teams enter with doubts of risking a potential top pick in the draft, could LA actually take advantage of those unintended consequences of the new lottery rules?
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The inverse could also be true. Will Oklahoma City see the same value in having a host of draft picks if they can’t routinely make them top-five picks? The same goes for San Antonio.
And if the trade market is barren for draft picks, will those teams feel more eager to pull the trigger?
The Lakers find themselves at an interesting crossroads. The league just changed how the draft works, ahead of an offseason in which the Lakers have made it clear for years that they’ll have multiple draft picks to trade.
Is it a change that improves their ability to build a contender this summer? Or could there be other unintended consequences that shake things up?
You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.
