BLOOMINGTON — IU football and Purdue are heading in opposite directions.
The Hoosiers (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) are in the thick of the Playoff race while the Boilermakers (1-10, 0-8) are one loss away from going winless in the conference for just the second time in three decades.
This season will be the largest win differential between the in-state rivals — they both started playing football in the 1800s — regardless of the result Saturday.
Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has every reason to add insult to injury by running up the score this weekend.
Barring some wild turn of events in the Big Ten this weekend, this will be the Hoosiers last shot at impressing the College Football Playoff committee, and they will want to show they have turned the page on shaky performances against Michigan and Ohio State.
Indiana will also want the final score to be as one-sided as the games Purdue played against the rest of the Big Ten playoff contenders. The Boilermakers are one of just two teams (Michigan State) that will have played Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana this season.
The Boilermakers were outscored by a combined score of 119-10 in the first three games.
IU football vs. Purdue: Channel, betting odds
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When: Saturday, Nov. 30 at 7 p.m.
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Where: Memorial Stadium (52,626), Bloomington, Indiana
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TV: FS1
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Line: Indiana -29
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Series: Purdue leads 77-42-6
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Last meeting: Purdue def. Indiana, 35-31, on Nov. 25, 2023
IU football players to watch vs Purdue
Indiana’s offensive line: Indiana’s offensive line is under the microscope as it tries to turn the page on its worst performance of the season. The Hoosiers gave up five sacks to Ohio State with much of that pressure getting through during the second quarter.
The offense never recovered after that.
While Indiana has faced more talented defensive fronts in recent weeks, Cignetti said the offensive line’s issues are mostly related to “missed assignments and poor technique” that he described as “day one” kind of mental errors. He said the offense has no chance to get into a rhythm like it had earlier this year unless those issues get cleaned up.
The Hoosiers did lose a key piece up front when starting left guard Drew Evans suffered a season-ending Achilles injury leading up to the Michigan game, but his replacement, Tyler Stephens, has been practicing with the first-team offense for nearly four weeks.
They shouldn’t be regressing as they get more practice time together.
Mikail Kamara, DE: Kamara was held without a single quarterback pressure against Ohio State.
It was only the third time that’s happened in his career (34 games).
Kamara led the FBS in quarterback pressures for much of November thanks to a stretch of six straight games with five or more pressures, but dropped down to third after the loss. That won’t bother him as much as the fact that Ohio State quarterback Will Howard had way too easy of a time getting the ball downfield last weekend.
The former James Madison defender will be looking for a bounce back performance against an offensive line that’s given up 30 sacks this season and 84 quarterback pressures, per Pro Football Focus. For comparison, IU’s starting offensive line has given up 46 quarterback pressures.
Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton, RB: Indiana’s starting running back duo could alleviate some of the pass protection issues by breaking off some explosive runs early in the game on Saturday.
The Hoosiers rushing attack has been dormant in recent weeks with the exception of a brief stretch in the fourth quarter against Ohio State when the game was already out of reach.
Ellison told reporters after beating Nebraska the running game provided an important spark for the offense. The Cornhuskers hadn’t allowed a run of 30 yards or more or rushing touchdown before coming to Bloomington. The Wake Forest transfer did both on IU’s opening possession, and the Hoosiers went on to put up 215 rushing yards (6.5 yards per carry).
That’s the kind of tone setter the running backs need to provide on Saturday against Purdue.
IU football: Week 14 Odds and Ends
Left of the mark: Indiana punter James Evans made a mistake on the Caleb Downs’ punt return touchdown that helped OSU put the game away. The punter was supposed to kick the ball to the right side of the field, but it ended up on the opposite sideline and Downs broke off a huge return. He also lost a well-placed snap that resulted in a turnover on downs. Cignetti will want to see a cleaner operation on Saturday against a Purdue team that’s only averaging 6.9 yards per return.
Max protect: Purdue’s top offensive weapon is 6-4, 240-pound tight end Max Klare. He’s leading the team in catches (46), yards (649) and touchdowns (four). He’s been particularly effective over the team’s last two games with 14 catches for 174 yards and two scores. He’s a gifted athlete who considered pursuing a collegiate career in football and baseball, and even played quarterback in high school. The best tight end IU has faced this season was Michigan’s Colston Loveland, who the Hoosiers mostly held in check.
Third rail: Purdue’s third-down defense is one of the worst in the country. The Boilermakers are allowing opposing teams to convert 48.2% of their third down attempts. That’s second worst among power four teams (UCLA is the only team that’s worse) and 130th out of 134 FBS teams. Indiana has converted on 48.4% of its third-down attempts this season, but the Hoosiers have faced an increasing number of third and long situations the last two games. Their averaged distance to go on third down against Michigan was 8.8 yards and against Ohio State it was 7.2 yards.
IU football stat of the week
8.9: There’s only two teams in the FBS giving up more passing yards per attempt (8.9) than Purdue. Part of the reason for that is because the Boilermakers are giving up a ton of explosive plays — they have given up 41 completions of 20-yards or more — while allowing opposing offenses to complete 65% of their passing attempts.
IU football quote of the week
“It’s a well-oiled machine,” Purdue coach Ryan Walters on IU’s success
Prediction: Indiana 49, Purdue 10
Relentless pressure.
Ohio State showed that’s the best way to topple IU, but Purdue just doesn’t have the talent to mimic that game plan.
The Boilermakers might’ve had a better shot had Nic Scourton not transferred. He was a game wrecker in last year’s battle for the Old Oaken Bucket game — he had six quarterback pressures and two sacks — but ended up transferring to Texas A&M and his departure highlights the difference between the teams.
Purdue lost their impact players during the offseason while IU added one (or more) at nearly every position.
The fact that there will be a sold out crowd at Memorial Stadium hungry to push the Hoosiers across the finish line into the College Football Playoff only adds to their advantage. The only real question coming out of halftime should be how many points does Cignetti want to score before going to his bench.
Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana football vs Purdue preview, prediction for Old Oaken Bucket
