INDIANAPOLIS — The WNBA expansion draft is Friday, and the Indiana Fever may have to say goodbye to one of their players.
Or, maybe they won’t.
The expansion draft for the Golden State Valkyries will air 6:30 p.m. on ESPN where the newest franchise in the league will have the chance to pick one player from each team to make up its 2025 roster. But just because the Valkyries have the ability to pick a player from each team doesn’t mean they will.
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There are multiple ways the expansion draft can shake out for the Fever: Golden State can pick one of Indiana’s players, or the Fever and Valkyries can work out a pre-expansion draft trade that could give Indiana more autonomy in which player leaves the franchise, or Golden State won’t pick a player from Indiana’s roster at all.
We’ll find out the specifics Friday. Before then, here’s what you can expect on how the expansion draft works:
How does WNBA expansion draft affect Indiana Fever?
Golden State will start constructing its team with the expansion draft, getting up to 13 players from the draft before free agency even begins. In its most basic form, Golden State will be able to pick one unprotected player from each team as well as one unrestricted free agent who has not yet used all of their core years.
The Valkyries will then need to use their core designation (a max one-year salary in exchange for exclusive negotiating rights) on the unrestricted free agent they pick. Players who have already used up their core seasons — including players like Brittney Griner, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones — aren’t eligible to be picked, so they don’t need to be protected by their teams.
Each existing team can protect up to six players on their roster, which includes outgoing unrestricted free agents that are eligible to be cored and players they have the rights to but are not currently in the league. Then, Golden State can pick from the unprotected list.
Golden State can also opt to negotiate a trade with different teams — they could pick a player from one team and trade them to another team, whether it be for cap space or yet another player, or the Valkyries can negotiate with a team to pick a specific player from their roster.
The Valkyries can also opt to not pick a player from a team at all. There are only 12 roster spots on each WNBA team, and Golden State would come out with 13 players if they picked one player from each team and a UFA. With free agency starting in January too, the Valkyries may not want to fill up their roster that quickly.
Predicting Fever’s WNBA expansion draft protected list
Emphasis on predicted, as the league did not release the protected lists of any team.
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Caitlin Clark
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Kelsey Mitchell
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Aliyah Boston
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Lexie Hull
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NaLyssa Smith
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Temi Fagbenle
The top three are all but guaranteed: Clark and Boston, the past two No. 1 picks with four and three more years of control under the Fever, respectively, are no-brainers. Indiana also plans to core Kelsey Mitchell, which means they need to protect her as well.
Lexie Hull worked her way into the starting lineup and was a pivotal player in the second half of the season, making it likely the Fever don’t want to give her up. Temi Fagbenle, who is a restricted free agent, was an essential part of the roster when she was healthy as well. Fagbenle missed 22 games with various injuries, but was a crucial veteran voice both on and off the court.
NaLyssa Smith is the sticking point — she was a starter for most of the season, but her minutes dwindled in favor of Fagbenle at times, especially during the postseason. Smith was vocal about her dissatisfaction with her playing time this past season, but that may have been directed at the previous coaching staff. Smith reposted the announcement of Stephanie White becoming the Fever’s new coach in November after Christie Sides was fired.
Indiana could protect Smith in hopes they could trade her later in the offseason and get another player in exchange for the former No. 2 overall pick. Or they could be planning to keep her for 2025 and hope a new system brings out the best in her.
Golden State’s potential options from the Fever
Katie Lou Samuelson, Grace Berger, Damiris Dantas, Victaria Saxton and Kristy Wallace will all likely be unprotected from the Fever’s roster. Erica Wheeler, the final player on Indiana’s roster, will be an unrestricted free agent this season.
Of those, I believe Berger or Samuelson would be the most likely picked by Golden State.
Berger, an IU alum, just finished her second season with the Fever. She had a lot of usage in her rookie year in 2023, playing in 36 games and averaging 14.2 minutes and 4.6 points. Her spot in the rotation fell off in 2024, though, as she only appeared in 11 games with an average of 9.3 minutes per game.
Berger is a versatile and quick player who made the WNBA All-Rookie team in 2023. She has a lethal midrange shot, which could open up some options on a new team. On top of that, she’s relatively cheap — her salary, which is unprotected, would be $80,000 for 2025.
Samuelson, on the other hand, is a veteran player who could bring some experience to a completely new franchise. She was drafted No. 4 overall out of UConn in 2019 and has bounced around a bit, playing with Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle and now Indiana. Going to Golden State could be somewhat of a homecoming, as she is from Huntington Beach, Calif.
The five-year WNBA veteran did have a difficult season in 2024, with it being her first after having her daughter in summer 2023. She played in 37 games, mostly coming off the bench after beginning the year as a starter, and averaged 4.3 points per game in 18.2. minutes. This year, with having a full offseason of training, Samuelson could be primed for a bounce-back year.
The thing that could turn Golden State away from Samuelson, though, is her hefty $180,000 salary owed to her in 2025. That salary is protected, so Golden State would be on the hook even if they eventually released her.
Other options for the Valkyries, of course, include a trade with the Fever so Indiana could agree to specific terms with a return for the player they are giving up.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: WNBA expansion draft: Who will Indiana Fever leave unprotected?
