The NCAA Tournament selection committee revealed its top 16 seeds for the first time Sunday, and within hours, three of the top eight teams lost. That was in addition to UCLA — the top overall seed — losing Thursday, but still retaining its place on the 1-line.
All season, there has been more parity within the contender class than in previous years, and this weekend was a prime example. All of the top 10 teams are capable of going on a Final Four run, but each has flaws that can be exposed in specific matchups, whether that’s South Carolina’s small frontcourt, UConn’s inconsistent shooting, UCLA’s indecision in close games, USC’s lack of secondary scoring options. … The list goes on.
That isn’t to say a worthy champion will struggle to emerge from this field. We continue to witness great performances on a nightly basis as players and programs have to work incredibly hard to gut out wins. Goliaths are fun, and there is beauty to watching teams like last year’s South Carolina blow past every obstacle. But there is also magic in seeing teams persevere and come back from low points, like Texas flipping the script against the Gamecocks or JuJu Watkins powering through a shooting slump to take down a rival.
With so much stumbling at the top, those comeback stories will be the hallmark of this year’s March Madness. I can’t wait.
Dropped out: Florida State (23)
Almost famous: Illinois, Florida State, Ole Miss
Three teams rising
Here comes Azzi Fudd
UConn was lacking a signature win heading into Columbia, S.C., for its now annual showdown against the Gamecocks. But in the Huskies’ first two chances for that marquee victory — at Notre Dame and against USC — Azzi Fudd either was unavailable or limited due to injury, leaving a larger perimeter burden on Paige Bueckers.
Fudd isn’t limited anymore. She is arguably better than ever.
Other than back-to-back 32-point games against then-No. 3 Texas and No. 10 NC State in her sophomore season, Fudd has never been more productive over a two-game stretch. The redshirt junior followed her career-high 34 points against St. John’s on Wednesday with another standout performance in UConn’s 87-58 win against the Gamecocks on Sunday. On the road, against the defending national champions, Fudd erupted for 28 points in 35 minutes, her highest minute total since her ACL injury. Even though it took her a while to find her rhythm, as she shot 2 of 10 in the first half, her aggression was important to help bend the defense. Once Fudd’s shot started falling, there was no hope for South Carolina.
“She hasn’t played in a long time, hasn’t been in this scenario in a long time,” Geno Auriemma said postgame. “For her to have the kind of game that she had, this was big. It really goes a long way towards pushing her forward.”
Fudd has the second-highest on-off differential on UConn, as the Huskies are 14.6 points per 100 possessions better with her on the court. Considering UConn’s struggles shooting from long range in its losses, the importance of its best 3-point shooter can’t be overstated, especially when Fudd can add drives and pull-up midrangers when defenses chase her off the line.
The challenge with the Huskies’ offense is that they don’t create enough easy looks since they don’t attack the offensive glass or get to the foul line. But Fudd is efficient from everywhere on the court, even at high volume. She makes everything look easy.
Even with the rout over the Gamecocks, UConn doesn’t quite seem like a top-five team. The five teams above the Huskies have many more Quad 1 wins and also all have wins over fellow top-five teams. If South Carolina continues to struggle, even in wins, the Gamecocks will fall further. For now, the season-long résumé (10 Q1 victories, including over Texas, LSU and Duke) keeps them ahead of UConn.
North Carolina’s many options
The Tar Heels are one of the nation’s more fascinating teams because of how little they rely on any singular player. On any given day, it can be someone else who provides the special sauce of what UNC needs. Maybe it’s Maria Gakdeng for her interior presence, Lexi Donarski for her perimeter defense and knockdown shooting, Reniya Kelly for her three-level scoring, Lanie Grant for her rim pressure, or Alyssa Ustby for her grab bag of skills. The Tar Heels have had seven leading scorers this season, and that almost undersells the quality of their depth.
Against NC State, it was Grant who got to the basket and took a charge on the other end. Grace Townsend stepped in as a ballhandler when Indya Nivar fouled out and hit the game-winning free throws. Donarski and Kelly sank clutch 3s when the Wolfpack were stretching the lead. Without Ustby for most of the game, Blanca Thomas stepped in and ran some hi-lo actions with Gakdeng. Gakdeng came out to crowd Aziaha James on the final possession so the NC State guard didn’t get a shot off.
North Carolina was down six with 1:50 to play and won in regulation, executing on essentially every possession the rest of the way. It’s hard to defend the Tar Heels when every player on the court is a threat without a clear No. 1 option. UNC knew that James would get the ball on the last play, but there isn’t that clarity with the Tar Heels, and they don’t lack for talent, either. The democratization of their offense has worked wonders in 2024-25.
Baylor’s in control
The Bears did what they had to do against the soft part of the Big 12 schedule, and now they control their own destiny in the conference title race. That includes two games against TCU and Kansas State, but they have some hope if senior transfer Aaronette Vonleh can be the missing piece in the middle.
Vonleh got into early foul trouble against UCLA, so her matchup against Lauren Betts never really materialized. However, she has dominated smaller opponents, especially against West Virginia. The Mountaineers couldn’t speed up Vonleh at all, and she did well to keep the ball high in traffic to avoid their digs into the post. Her turnover rate in the last five games has been below five percent, a shockingly good number for a low-post big.
Kansas State may not have Ayoka Lee back when it plays Baylor on Feb. 24, which gives Vonleh another opportunity to use her size (she’s listed at 6-foot-3 but plays bigger) against the Wildcats’ frontcourt. However, she’ll need to be disciplined when Baylor closes the regular season against TCU’s Sedona Prince, who draws 4.8 fouls per game in Big 12 play.
Two teams falling
What does UCLA do when Lauren Betts isn’t rolling?
Betts had one of her worst games of the season against USC on Thursday, and the Bruins were out of sorts without their anchor. Even when Betts struggles to score, UCLA can usually work the ball into the post and find openings when she gets doubled, whether that’s off of cuts or kickouts. That wasn’t the case with the Trojans, who managed to double Betts into the baseline and cut off her passing angles and often survived in single coverage by pushing the 6-foot-7 center further from the basket.
So what do the Bruins turn to when Betts can’t be their hub? There was no answer against USC, but UCLA was forced to reckon with that question again when Betts sat out Sunday’s matchup against Michigan State with a toe injury. The Bruins’ identity is still to get the ball inside (even if that’s to Janiah Barker or Angela Dugalic instead of Betts), make cuts off those passes and create defensive indecision with their movement. The problem when Betts isn’t in the game is that the defense doesn’t sell out on the post to the same extent, which requires UCLA to hit shots from the perimeter.
Londynn Jones hit five 3-pointers when Betts struggled against Oregon last week, but the team combined for two 3s against USC. Against Michigan State, the Bruins responded with eight 3-pointers; four of those came from Timea Gardiner, who had been shooting 28 percent from distance in 2025. Betts gives UCLA a high margin for error. Without her, or even with a slumping Betts, the Bruins don’t have that. Their shooting needs to pick up the slack.
Kentucky’s offensive glitch
When Kenny Brooks moved to Kentucky, I wondered how his Virginia Tech offense would fare against SEC defenses. His system relies on precise ball and player movement, and that can be stifled against more athletic and physical teams. Losses against Ole Miss and Texas last week have resurfaced some of those concerns.
The Rebels and the Longhorns suffocate movement within the halfcourt and force opponents to beat them off the dribble. That isn’t the strength of these Wildcats.
Georgia Amoore works well off of ball screens and can sidestep into a jumper, but she isn’t going to blow by a defender to get into the paint. Clara Strack is a little too lithe to score among a thicket of post defenders; she can roll off of a pick or operate when a side is cleared.
The shot charts in Kentucky’s losses dramatically differ from their wins: more attempts in the midrange and fewer 3s and paint shots.
More than anything, it looked like the Wildcats wore down against Ole Miss and Texas. They had an eight-point lead in the third quarter against the Rebels and lost by nine after shooting 4 of 12 in the fourth quarter and sending Ole Miss to the line 10 times. Against the Longhorns, Kentucky suffered through two scoring droughts of at least five minutes.
The Wildcats can’t consistently generate their usual diet of shots against SEC defenses, and that means they need superb individual shot-making to remain competitive. They haven’t gotten that.
Kentucky started the day as one of the hosting seeds (13th overall), but LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina are all still to come on the schedule, and those types of defenses have given the Wildcats difficulty. The upside is that Kentucky won’t take any bad losses in those games, which should keep its standing with the committee. However, the Wildcats probably need to win one of those three contests to ensure remaining in the top 16, and that will require some offensive adjustments.
Games to watch
Duke at Notre Dame, 6 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Baylor at Colorado, 9 p.m. Wednesday, ESPN+
LSU at Kentucky, 4 p.m. Sunday, ESPN
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish, UCLA Bruins, Tennessee Lady Volunteers, South Carolina Gamecocks, Baylor Bears, North Carolina Tar Heels, Kentucky Wildcats, Connecticut Huskies, LSU Lady Tigers, Texas Longhorns, Women’s College Basketball
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