Women’s Final Four breakdown and predictions: UCLA or UConn? South Carolina or Texas?
The field is set for Friday’s Final Four showdowns. Our experts break down the games and make predictions.
Follow along to see who has the edge when games tip off in Tampa.
No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 1 Texas
7 p.m. Friday, ESPN
The two programs at the top of the SEC will meet in Tampa with a spot in the national championship on the line. This will be a rematch of the SEC tournament championship held only three weeks ago, a game South Carolina won 64-45. It will also be the fourth time the schools play this season. The Gamecocks lead the overall series 2-1.
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These programs have plenty in common. Both have physical and aggressive defenses. On offense, both are efficient and among the nation’s best. Texas relies on pounding teams around the basket, scoring more than 60 percent of its points in the paint, but South Carolina sprinkles slightly more 3-pointers into its offensive diet.
It’s hard to imagine any significant surprises springing up before Friday. The Longhorns will surely know that the Gamecocks will pack the paint and dare their opponent to shoot 3s. Texas is last in the country in 3-point rate and went only 1 of 8 in their early March meeting. South Carolina will anticipate Texas’ ball pressure. The second quarter was the difference in their SEC tournament meeting, as South Carolina outscored Texas in that period 21-6. The Longhorns had six of their seven first-half turnovers in the second quarter, and shot only 3 o 12 from the field. They had defensive lapses, too, as Chloe Kitts and Sania Feagin combined to score nine points as South Carolina shot 53.3 percent in the frame. In the other three quarters, the Gamecocks had only a plus-four point differential. Both teams will look to avoid lulls, and both saw their offenses stall out at times in the Elite Eight.
Who controls the paint will go a long way in determining who advances. In the Longhorns’ win over the Gamecocks back in early February, Texas scored 40 paint-points and held South Carolina to just 26 — down from their 42.1 average. As part of their success, the Longhorns also hauled in 15 offensive rebounds and converted those chances for 19 second-chance points. Texas wing Madison Booker enters as the most dangerous single player in the matchup, having won SEC Player of the Year, been named a first-team All-American and taken home Birmingham 3 Most Outstanding Player honors on Monday night. But the Gamecocks — with their length, and various defensive options led by Bree Hall — have largely stifled Booker. She is averaging only 12.3 points on 25.9 percent against South Carolina across their three meetings and has more turnovers (eight) than assists (four). Whether Booker can shine will be another key.
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What South Carolina lacks in a singular star, it has in a widely talented roster. Six players average between eight and 13 points per game, and no one averages more than 11 shot attempts. The depth allows coach Dawn Staley to pivot quickly when making adjustments, and it can make preparation difficult on opponents — there’s no single player to load up on. Familiarity will help Texas in the lead-up, but it also won’t make predicting which South Carolina player will.
Sabreena Merchant: South Carolina
Ben Pickman: South Carolina
Grace Raynor: South Carolina
Cameron Teague Robinson: Texas
No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 2 UConn
9:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN
Both teams feature a player who has proven herself to be close: UCLA’s Lauren Betts and UConn’s Paige Bueckers. Both come into Tampa after impressive regional showings. In that sense, this game could come down to which will be able to tilt the scales for her team.
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UConn won’t be able to defend Betts one-on-one, so it’ll take a committee approach — much like Betts has seen time and time again this season — to try and slow the 6-foot-7 All-American center. On the other side, even with their deep guard play and options on the defensive end, there’s no single Bruin who can go toe to toe with Bueckers and her elite shot making abilities. In her final season with the Huskies, she is on a mission to cut down those nets in Tampa — that extra motivation has made her extra dangerous.
In that respect, with two unstoppable players like Betts and Bueckers on both sides, it might then come down to which supporting cast better steps up in this moment. UConn freshman Sarah Strong has been spectacular this season, but particularly of late. In the Huskies’ Elite Eight game against USC, the frosh finished with 20 points on 8 of 13 shooting and she has put up 20-plus point games in three of the Huskies’ last six games. Conversely, sharpshooter Azzi Fudd struggled mightily in that game, but if she can get going from beyond the arc, the three-headed monster of Bueckers-Fudd-Strong can be an unmatched force, especially with players like Ashlynn Shade and KK Arnold coming off the bench as reinforcements.
For UCLA, while Betts leads the way with 20 points a game, she has a platoon around her (the Bruins truly run nine deep) that can execute their roles to near perfection. Whether that’s guard Kiki Rice commanding the floor and getting to her spots or 6-foot-4 Timea Gardiner or 5-foot-4 Londynn Jones knocking down 3s with precision or Janiah Barker cleaning things up in the paint.
This game has the two biggest individual stars still in the postseason and incredible supporting casts. This is UConn coach Geno Auriemma’s 24th trip to the Final Four and UCLA coach Cori Close’s first, but this game feels like a chess match just waiting to happen. Which star shines brightest and which group around them backs up that performance? With UCLA’s depth, and the lack of an equalizing paint presence on UConn’s roster, this game feels slightly in the Bruins’ favor.
Experts’ picks
Chantel Jennings: UCLA
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Sabreena Merchant: UCLA
Ben Pickman: UConn
Grace Raynor: UConn
Cameron Teague Robinson: UConn
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, Connecticut Huskies, Texas Longhorns, Women’s College Basketball, Women’s NCAA Tournament
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