Women’s March Madness 2026 title odds: UConn, UCLA lead but SEC teams rise after Iowa loss
All four top seeds won both games in blowout fashion. The first and third days of the tournament produced zero upsets by seeding in any matchup. Virginia’s shocking upset over No. 2 seed Iowa to become the first women’s First Four team to make the Sweet 16 was the biggest highlight of an otherwise relatively drama-free opening weekend.
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Overall, not much has changed in the women’s national championship winner market on sportsbooks since the bigger favorites mostly cruised to victory as expected.
Defending champion Connecticut is still the heavy favorite during its push for another undefeated season. But fellow No. 1 seeds UCLA, Texas and South Carolina also breezed by the opening two rounds — setting up a potential Final Four of all top seeds if the elite teams keep playing to this level.
Women’s National Champion betting odds
UConn remains the heavy favorite
The Connecticut Huskies (-255 on DraftKings) have held their lead over the field after sitting at around -275 odds after the initial bracket reveal. UConn destroyed No. 9 seed Syracuse in the second round, using a 31-0 first-half run to build a 53-8 lead that eventually turned into a 98-45 blowout victory.
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Playing in her final game at Gampel Pavilion, senior sharpshooter Azzi Fudd poured in a career-high 34 points while knocking down eight 3-pointers. Completely dominant in early-round NCAA games, Connecticut improved its current winning streak to 52 games.
Up next, the Huskies take on No. 4 seed North Carolina during the Sweet 16 in Regional 1 in Fort Worth. Favored by over 25 points in that matchup, Connecticut is, once again, expected to totally dominate its opponent with minimal resistance. Should UConn advance to the Elite Eight, they’ll face the winner of No. 2 seed Vanderbilt and No. 6 seed Notre Dame. Back in January, the Huskies ran past Notre Dame 85-47 in a non-conference victory.
Other top seeds also take care of business
Other top seeds besides UConn also easily advanced in the women’s NCAA Tournament. The four No. 1 seeds combined to win their second-round matchups by an average of 38.5 points per game — with only the UCLA Bruins (+450) winning by less than 20 points.
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UCLA moved up slightly from +500 national title odds behind another memorable effort from senior center Lauren Betts. Pouring in a career-high 35 points in her final home game at Pauley Pavilion, Betts finished 15-for-19 from the field against Oklahoma State.
In the Sweet 16, UCLA faces Big Ten conference adversary Minnesota in Regional 1 in Sacramento. The Bruins won on the road in January against the Gophers with a 76-58 victory.
Keeping with the other top seeds, the Texas Longhorns (+750) breezed past Oregon in the second round behind 40 points from Madison Booker. Making their third consecutive Sweet 16 appearance, the Longhorns face No. 5 seed Kentucky next — a team Texas defeated 64-53 on Feb. 9.
The South Carolina Gamecocks (+750) made quick work of USC with a 40-point blowout win over the Trojans to advance to their 12th straight Sweet 16. South Carolina gets the most compelling Sweet 16 matchup amongst the top seeds when they play No. 4 seed Oklahoma — one of two teams to beat the Gamecocks during the season.
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Although the competition level increases significantly for No. 1 seeds during the Sweet 16 by facing No. 4 and 5 seeds, all four top seeds are still favored by at least 15 points each in the next round. Barring a major upset, the four main title contenders are expected to reach the Elite Eight with double-digit wins.
SEC leads secondary title teams
Iowa’s loss to Virginia was definitely a stunner, as the Hawkeyes entered the game favored by 13.5 points. While not in the upper tier of favorites, Iowa’s title odds were around +10000 at most sportsbooks entering that game. The Hawkeyes’ loss has opened the door for the second tier of contenders.
Enter the SEC, which is clearly the deepest women’s basketball conference in the country this season after six teams made the Sweet 16. The league’s strong season is further reflected in the fact that most of the league’s secondary national title contenders come from the SEC.
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Only the LSU Tigers (+1700) are reasonably close to the top seeds in the current national title market. The No. 2 seed in Regional 2 in Sacramento, the Tigers crushed Texas Tech by 54 points in the second round to set up a battle with No. 3 seed Duke in the Sweet 16.
The Tigers already handled the Blue Devils during a December double-digit road win at Cameron Indoor Stadium and will be favored by close to double digits in the rematch. Should LSU advance to the Elite Eight, it could be on a collision course with UCLA for a spot in the Final Four.
Only one other national title contender sports odds better than 80-to-1. The Vanderbilt Commodores (+7500) are the only secondary market team making a significant move after the first weekend. Vanderbilt is peaking at the right time with five top-25 wins since the start of February — four of those wins coming against teams still playing in the NCAA Tournament. It also helped Vanderbilt that No. 3 seed Ohio State was upset by No. 6 seed Notre Dame in the second round — although the Commodores will still be tested by Hannah Hidalgo and a dangerous Fighting Irish squad.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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