Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
In bracketology, things can change in a flash. Take USC, for example. The Trojans were lingering on the bubble after starting Big Ten play at 3-6. But Thursday night’s massive 81-69 win over Iowa, a team in line for a top-three seed, puts USC firmly in the field.
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Vanderbilt also fell victim to the ever-changing field. After working their way to a No. 1 seed, the Commodores suffered their first loss of the season and fell back to a No. 2 seed. But hope isn’t lost for Vandy — or for several other SEC teams for that matter. There are at least two No. 1 seeds up for grabs.
Speaking of the forever-fluctuating bracket, next week will be The Athletic’s first edition of Bubble Watch. So make sure to check in and see who is in, who is out, and who still has a shot.
Until then, let’s get to this week’s bracket.
First Four
Storrs
16
Maryland-Eastern Shore
16
Southern
Los Angeles
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16
Chattanooga
16
Binghamton
Iowa City
11
Virginia Tech
11
Clemson
Norman
11
Seton Hall
11
Syracuse
Fort Worth 1
Storrs
1
UConn
16
Maryland-Eastern Shore
Southern
Storrs
8
Iowa State
9
Notre Dame
Lexington
5
Washington
12
Oregon State
Lexington
4
Kentucky
13
Murray State
Iowa City
6
NC State
11
Virginia Tech
Clemson
Iowa City
3
Iowa
14
Charleston
Fort Worth
7
Alabama
10
North Dakota State
Fort Worth
2
TCU
15
Navy
Fort Worth 2
Columbia
1
South Carolina
16
Fairleigh Dickinson
Columbia
8
Georgia
9
Minnesota
Columbus
5
Princeton
12
San Diego State
Columbus
4
Ohio State
13
Green Bay
Ann Arbor
6
Ole Miss
11
Rice
Ann Arbor
3
Michigan
14
UC San Diego
Louisville
7
USC
10
Illinois
Louisville
2
Louisville
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15
High Point
Sacramento 4
Los Angeles
1
UCLA
16
Chattanooga
Binghamton
Los Angeles
8
Mississippi State
9
Villanova
Waco
5
Tennessee
12
Montana State
Waco
4
Baylor
13
Miami (OH)
Norman
6
Texas Tech
11
Seton Hall
Syracuse
Norman
3
Oklahoma
14
McNeese
Baton Rouge
7
West Virginia
10
Rhode Island
Baton Rouge
2
LSU
15
Eastern Kentucky
Sacramento 3
Austin
1
Texas
16
Cal Baptist
Austin
8
Oklahoma State
9
Stanford
Durham
5
Maryland
12
Quinnipiac
Durham
4
Duke
13
Arkansas State
East Lansing
6
North Carolina
11
Utah
East Lansing
3
Michigan State
14
Louisiana Tech
Nashville
7
Nebraska
10
Oregon
Austin
2
Vanderbilt
15
Western Illinois
Will the SEC get two No. 1 seeds?
Vanderbilt earned its way to a No. 1 seed last week, only to fall back to a No. 2 seed after losing to South Carolina. As it stands, the SEC is in line for two No. 1 seeds. It just remains to be seen which teams earn them. Let’s break it down.
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UConn, out of the Big East, has a No. 1 seed locked up. It’s clear no one else in that conference can challenge the Huskies, and their nonconference wins against Louisville, Ohio State, Michigan, Utah, USC, Iowa and Notre Dame are good for the second-best nonconference strength of schedule in the country. Plus, the Huskies have the best NET ranking in the NCAA. UConn plays Tennessee on Sunday — its last remaining regular-season test — but even with a loss against the Lady Vols, UConn has done enough for a No. 1 seed.
UCLA, out of the Big Ten, also seems to have a No. 1 seed locked up. The Bruins are second in the NET, with an impressive resume that includes wins over Oklahoma, North Carolina, Duke, Tennessee and a slew of talented Big Ten opponents. The Bruins have eight conference games left, but barring a major slide, they have done enough to be a top seed. A win against Iowa on Sunday would all but solidify that, and a loss would be just their second of the season, so not enough to slide them out of the top group.
The next three teams in the NET rankings are all SEC squads: Texas, South Carolina and LSU, with Vanderbilt sliding in at No. 7. Because the SEC, with 11 projected NCAA Tournament teams, is so stacked, the conference winner is nearly guaranteed a top seed. After that, the conference’s contenders all have ample opportunity for big wins that improve their resumes and help them rise to the one line. South Carolina, Texas, LSU, Vanderbilt and even Oklahoma all have No. 1-seed potential.
As it stands, Texas and South Carolina own the two No. 1 seeds based on their excellent resumes. Texas is third in the NET with wins over UCLA, Baylor and South Carolina. The Gamecocks fall in at fourth in the NET, with a win over Texas (they’ve split the two meetings) and an impressive 103-74 victory over Vanderbilt earlier this week.
… Or could a second Big Ten team earn a No. 1 seed?
It will be difficult to beat out the resumes of those SEC teams, but two Big Ten teams (other than UCLA) have a shot: Iowa and Michigan.
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Let’s start with the Hawkeyes. They have three losses so far: One was to UConn, which doesn’t do any harm. Their second, to Iowa State, hasn’t aged as well, but it’s not a deal-breaker. Thursday night’s loss to USC makes things more challenging but still not completely out of reach. If Iowa beats UCLA on Sunday, its case for a top seed becomes much stronger. The Hawkeyes started their Big Ten slate at 9-1, which included wins over Nebraska, Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State. The Big Ten, like the SEC, is a strong conference that will be well-represented in March. Because of that, Iowa has already built a great resume. With games against UCLA and Michigan looming, that resume could get a major boost.
Same goes for Michigan. The Wolverines have three losses, including 3-point losses to UConn and Vandy. Their loss to Washington is less impressive, but again, not a resume-killer. The Wolverines are No. 6 in the NET, with opportunities left in the season to defeat Michigan State, UCLA, Iowa, Ohio State and Maryland. Similar to Iowa, if they win out, a No. 1 seed would be well within reach.
What about an ACC or a Big 12 team?
Out of those conferences, the biggest No. 1 seed contenders are Louisville (ACC) and TCU (Big 12). The Cardinals have three good losses: UConn, Kentucky and South Carolina. They are undefeated in the ACC, with several good nonconference wins and a top-10 NET ranking. Louisville’s hurdle is its conference. The ACC isn’t nearly as strong as the Big Ten or the SEC, so resume-boosting chances are harder to come by.
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TCU has the same issue in the Big 12. Two games against Baylor remain on their schedule, but the Horned Frogs played a relatively weak nonconference schedule compared with other squads fighting for a No. 1 seed. A conference loss to bubble-team Utah also hurts their chances.
The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
USC Trojans, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores, Iowa Hawkeyes, Connecticut Huskies, Texas Longhorns, Women’s College Basketball, Bracket Central
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