The NCAA Tournament opening rounds historically haven’t produced many upsets from the women’s teams. The most stunning all-time upset was No. 16 Harvard defeating No. 1 Stanford. But that was way back in 1998. A No. 14 or No. 15 seed has ever won a tournament game.
A No. 13 seed has worn the Cinderella tiara only once in the last seven tournaments and only seven times ever (four occasions in the wild times between 2000-2007). No. 12 (26 times) and No. 11 seeds (37 times) are a little more regular at providing upsets. Will there be any magic this season? Check out our odds predictions here and our forecast bracket here. And don’t forget to see how your The Athletic bracket is doing against the expert bracket from Chantel Jennings.
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Follow along today for our takeaways from the opening day of March Madness.
Tennessee without Janiah Barker
Just before Tennessee’s upcoming first-round game against NC State, ESPN announced that the Lady Vols’ second-leading scorer, Janiah Barker, was ruled out due to an illness.
Barker, a UCLA transfer, averages 14.3 points per game, and leads Tennessee with 6.3 rebounds per game. She met with the media and practiced on Thursday, but began feeling ill earlier in the day on Friday, ESPN said.
Barker is a massive loss for Tennessee, which reached the Sweet 16 last season and was hoping to build off of that success. Instead, the Lady Vols finished the regular season 16-13 after losing 10 of their final 12 games, including their last seven.
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The end of the season has brought some uneasy moments and buzz around Knoxville about second-year coach Kim Caldwell’s job security entering the tournament. A win for the No. 10 seed Lady Vols would help her case, but losing Barker makes that substantially harder against No. 7 seed NC State.
Caldwell’s $4 million buyout may be too rich for Tennessee to cut ties with her after this season, but a first-round exit could make next season even more important for Caldwell and the Lady Vols. — Cameron Teague Robinson
No. 4 Minnesota 75, No. 13 Green Bay 58
Up next in Round 2: No. 5 Ole Miss
Minnesota hadn’t been in the NCAA Tournament since 2018, but athletic director Mark Coyle believed that this would be the year that streak ended. Not only did he believe that the Golden Gophers would be back in the Big Dance, he believed that they would be hosting games at The Barn.
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As he told the Minnesota Star Tribune after Selection Sunday, Coyle was so confident that he moved the Minnesota State High School boys’ championship back a week so that Williams Arena would be available for the Golden Gophers on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. That bet paid off, and Minnesota further validated Coyle’s belief with a valiant fourth quarter against Green Bay to avoid becoming an opening-day, opening-round casualty.
Trailing 49-45 entering the fourth quarter, the Golden Gophers won the final frame 30-9 to earn the 75-58 win and a date with Ole Miss in the second round. But Minnesota will have a harder time replicating its late-game heroics against the Ole Miss, a veteran SEC team that has won on the road in the second round twice in the last three seasons. Ole Miss had about the same defensive rating as the Phoenix this season, but against far superior competition in the SEC, and forced opponents to shoot below 50 percent on 2s in Quad 1 and 2 games.
The Rebels are also much improved offensively. They attack the offensive glass, they draw a lot of fouls and they take care of the ball, making a nine-point quarter highly unlikely if the Golden Gophers need to make up ground.
Coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin was spotlighted on the broadcast during the fourth quarter having a ball, presumably as she identified ways for Ole Miss to make it back to the Sweet 16. — Sabreena Merchant
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No. 6 Washington 72, No. 11 South Dakota State 54
Up next in Round 2: No. 3 TCU
Last season, Avery Howell was thrust into a bigger position for USC when star guard JuJu Watkins tore her ACL in the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Howell, who had played more than 25 minutes only five times during the regular season, went on to average 34 minutes a game between the second round and when the Trojans ultimately lost to UConn in the Elite Eight.
During the offseason, the Idaho native transferred to Washington but with the Huskies picking up a No. 6 seed this postseason — matching the second-best mark for the program since 1995 — Howell was eager to bring that March experience with her to Washington.
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“I think that (2025 experience) just helped me gain confidence that I was prepared for that moment. And I hope to bring that this year and just be a steady force on the court,” Howell said. “Whatever the team needs from me, I want to provide that just so our team can be as successful as possible.”
If by “steady force,” Howell actually meant a 3-point shooting menace? Then, yes. She was a steady force for the Huskies in their first-round win over South Dakota State.
The sophomore sunk a career-best seven 3-pointers and led all scorers with 30 points. She added another nine rebounds, two steals and one assist in Friday’s win.
Howell’s hot hand meant that Washington’s leading scorer, Sayvia Sellers, attempted far fewer shots than usual (just five field goal attempts compared to 14). But if Howell can carry over this shooting performance and Sellers can get up her typical performance in the second round, then the Huskies’ meeting with TCU becomes quite a bit more interesting. Washington averaged about six fewer points per game this season, but when Howell is on fire from long range like that? Another six points is nothing.
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Plus, Washington must feel good about how being battle-tested through the Big Ten can help it in the postseason. The Huskies’ two best wins (over Michigan and Maryland in January) are better than TCU’s best win (West Virginia, twice). — Chantel Jennings
Skylar Jones leaves Louisville before NCAA Tournament
Louisville coach Jeff Walz announced Friday that junior guard Skylar Jones is no longer with the program. At Friday’s news conference, Walz said, “We’ve just parted ways. It’s best for both parties.”
Jones averaged 16.6 minutes (seventh-most on the team) and 8.4 points this season, and she appeared in every game after transferring from Arizona. However, she played 11 minutes total in the ACC semifinal and championship game before the split.
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The Cardinals face No. 14 seed Vermont in Saturday’s first round contest in Louisville.
They still have a perimeter rotation of Tajianna Roberts, Mackenly Randolph, Reyna Scott and Imari Berry, each of whom play at least 23.5 minutes per game. Walz seemed unconcerned about the Cardinals’ depth.
“If you go back to the past month, it’s really not going to change much. In our ACC finals, (Randolph) played all 45 minutes,” Walz said. “We have plenty of players.”
Elsewhere in the Fort Worth 3 region, Tennessee is also dealing with the sudden absence of a player, as Kaiya Wynn left the program earlier this month after not playing on the Lady Vols’ senior night. — Chantel Jennings
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No. 3 Duke 81, No. 14 Charleston 64
Up next in Round 2: No. 6 Baylor
Duke tipped off the tournament by taking care of business against College of Charleston. Sophomore forward Toby Fournier led the Blue Devils with 24 points, and junior Delaney Thomas added 19 as the Blue Devils were never really in any danger of losing their lead.
But even coach Kara Lawson knows the Blue Devils will have to play better moving forward … and now Duke’s future opponents do, too.
Despite Charleston shooting just 26 percent from the field, junior guard Taryn Barbot put on a clinic against the Blue Devils with 36 points, marking the most points by any Duke opposing player all season. She did it with remarkable efficiency in 38 minutes of play. And the worst part for the Blue Devils? She did it in all sorts of different ways to keep them on their toes all afternoon.
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The 5-foot-10 junior might have finished just 8-of-24 shooting, but she went 6 of 12 from 3 and perhaps most notably, 14 of 16 from the foul line. The CAA’s Player of the Year had only one rebound and still finished with four turnovers. But she was fearless about taking it to the Blue Devils and drawing plenty of contact along the way. (Her twin sister and teammate Taylor Barbot chipped in 13 points, by the way.)
After the game, Lawson was reportedly asked to compare Taryn Barbot to the ACC guards Duke has faced Lawson initially declined, then gave a nod to Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo.
Lawson, who tossed her clipboard into the bleachers in frustration late in the fourth quarter, can be pleased with a win while also knowing Duke exposed some early vulnerabilities that opponents will no doubt pounce on. And it’ll only get more competitive from here. — Grace Raynor
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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Duke Blue Devils, Women’s College Basketball
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