What is left of a regular season when the chances for an at-large bid start to slip into miracle range? Some might argue that it gives you a chance to evaluate players and build for the future. The more hopeful would argue that you should still try to get a good seed in the conference tournament to set up a miracle run. Idealists might say that competitors should bring their own internal motivation to every contest.
I’ve got an answer that appeals to a baser instinct than all of those: spite. If I can’t be happy, the teams I don’t like should suffer too.
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We’ve already had the singular joy of watching the worst team that KenPom has ever painstakingly manually entered into his algorithm wipe the floor with the UC Bearcats. Now Xavier – fresh off a cathartic beating of the rudderless Providence Friars – play host to Butler.
While it’s no secret that there is no love lost between these programs, it’s my journalistic obligation to inform you that Butler has quietly compiled the world’s okayest tournament resume. They picked up wins over South Carolina and a really good Virginia team in the non-con, and then circled back for a solid dub over Northwestern the week of Christmas. Three straight losses in the Big East have taken them well onto the wrong side of the bubble, but you don’t have to squint too hard to see a way back in if they right the ship quickly.
Boy would I love to see Xavier be part of ruining that.
Team fingerprint
A couple of things leap off the page about Butler’s 68th ranked defense. The first is that they almost never send opponents to the line. They are sixth in the country in defensive free throw rate. The other is that they’re excellent at limiting looks from deep, allowing just 33% of opposing shots and 28% of opposing points to come on threes. They are absolutely locked in on forcing teams to beat them with twos. They’re a solid defensive rebounding team and a tick above average in two-point and three-point percentage defense. They’re miserable at forcing turnovers.
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Butler’s offense is also 68th in the KenPom (they’re 55th overall; special teams must be incredible), thanks largely to a consistently massive output on the offensive glass. They’re in the top 20 nationally, grabbing 38% of their own misses. They’re a bit above average but nothing special from both inside and beyond the arc, and they get to the line well. They only make about 70% of their free throws, and they’re average in ball security. Nothing other than their ability to fly to the glass stands out.
Players
|
|
Starting matchups |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Azavier Robinson |
Point Guard |
Roddie Anderson III |
|
Freshman |
Class |
Senior |
|
“6’2″”, 195″ |
Measurements |
“6’3″”, 195″ |
|
5.6/1.9/2.4 |
Game line |
12.9/2.9/2.6 |
|
47.1/45.8/75 |
Shooting line |
38/28.6/77.3 |
|
|
Robinson was brought in to play a bench role, but a season-ending injury to Jalen Jackson thrust him into the starting lineup. Although he initially bore up well, the legs seem to be going a bit, as his ORtg hasn’t hit triple digits in a game in almost a month and hasn’t seen north of 60 in 2026. He’s a good shooter in low volume and gets a lot of steals, but he fouls a ton and turns the ball over way too much for a point. |
|
|
Finley Bizjack |
Shooting Guard |
Malik Messina-Moore |
|
Junior |
Class |
Senior |
|
“6’4″”, 190″ |
Measurements |
“6’5″”, 200″ |
|
16.3/1.8/2.1 |
Game line |
10.5/2.7/3.7 |
|
42.6/33.6/81.7 |
Shooting line |
38.6/34.7/75.5 |
|
|
Ugh. Bizjack is an excellent shooter whose numbers have dipped a bit this year under the weight of being the focal point of the offense. He’s not going to offer much more than buckets and ball security on either end of the court, but he’s a threat to rack up 20+ on any given night. If you’re looking for a dude that’s easy to cheer against, he’s your man. |
|
|
Jamie Kaiser, Jr |
Small Forward |
Tre Carroll |
|
Sophomore |
Class |
Senior |
|
“6’6″”, 205″ |
Measurements |
“6’8″”, 235″ |
|
9.9/5/1.2 |
Game line |
15.9/5.6/3.1 |
|
50.5/39.6/63.9 |
Shooting line |
47.8/32.4/59.6 |
|
|
After a year as a low-usage, low-efficiency guy at Maryland, Kaiser transferred to Butler and became a low-usage, high-efficiency option. He never turns to ball over and is actually verifiably present on the defensive glass. More notably, he’s only shooting 7 times per game despite an EFG% of 60.7%, which is very good. He dropped 14 and 7 on South Carolina on just 5 shot attempts (they all went in). |
|
|
Michael Ajayi |
Power Forward |
Filip Borovicanin |
|
Senior |
Class |
Senior |
|
“6’7″”, 235″ |
Measurements |
“6’9″”, 227″ |
|
16.1/12.1/3.2 |
Game line |
9.5/8/4.1 |
|
47.1/25.7/65.1 |
Shooting line |
45.8/33.9/78.6 |
|
Senior |
Class |
Senior |
|
“6’7″”, 235″ |
Measurements |
“6’9″”, 227″ |
|
16.1/12.1/3.2 |
Game line |
9.5/8/4.1 |
|
47.1/25.7/65.1 |
Shooting line |
45.8/33.9/78.6 |
|
|
Basically following the Oregon Trail backwards, Ajayi has gone from Pepperdine to Gonzaga and now to Butler. He was a huge get for the Bulldogs out of the portal, and he is putting up the numbers to match. He crushes the glass on both ends, scores in volume inside the arc, and draws a ton of fouls. Just a big man playing big man ball. |
|
|
Drayton Jones |
Center |
Jovan Milicevic |
|
Junior |
Class |
Sophomore |
|
“6’11″”, 250″ |
Measurements |
“6’10″”, 241″ |
|
7.3/5.1/1.6 |
Game line |
10.9/4.4/1.3 |
|
58.8/0/80.4 |
Shooting line |
40.9/42.9/64.9 |
|
|
Jones is the most efficient offensive player in Big East play by ORtg. His usage is low, but he almost never turns the ball over, scores efficiently, and draws 5 fouls per 40. He’s not particularly foul prone, nor is he a traffic cone on defense. I might look at getting him some more run, but who the heck am I? |
|
Butler isn’t just the starters; they actually get nearly 37% of their minutes from the bench mob. Let’s meet those rascals.
Yohan Traore is a 6’11”, 250 pound senior who comes off the bench to average 7.4/2.9/0.8 while splitting time almost evenly with Drayton Jones at the 5. Between those two and Ajayi, Butler is spoiled with depth in the paint. Traore isn’t much of a defensive rebounder or rim protector, but he boasts a gaudy 119.5 ORtg and stays out of foul trouble. Freshman Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor is the next closest thing the Bulldogs have to a backup big man at 6’6″. He’s a good offensive rebounder, which allows him to find court time and average 4.8/2.2/1.2 despite shooting 35% from the floor.
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Further from the hoop, guard Evan Haywood averages 8.4/2.3/1.3 on an impressive .413/.412/.714 shooting line. He has made more threes than he has attempted twos and statistically profiles and a classic catch-and-shoot threat. Yame Butler rounds out the meaningful contributors, having found himself playing for Thad Matta in a classic case of nominative determinism. He’s a 6’5″ who transferred in from Drexel. He’s averaging 4.2/1.6/1.4 on the year, is 2-15 from deep since Thanksgiving, and fouls 6 times per 40 minutes against KenPom A+B competition.
Three Questions
– Is Butler any good? The computers like the Bulldogs. They are between 50th and 55th in the NET, KP, and Torvik. Butler is getting credit for playing some good opponents, but they’ve only beaten Virginia on a neutral. Xavier is 2-6 in the top two quads, Butler is 3-5. Both teams have a Q3 loss and five Q4 wins. Butler hasn’t made it a habit to get slaughtered once a fortnight, but they haven’t exactly racked up an impeccable resume so far.
– Can Xavier hold their own on the defensive glass? Xavier is 61st in the nation in defensive rebounding, which is pretty solid, and has jumped to a 30% rate in conference play. Those are both good numbers. However, Marquette was just two games ago. Yes, Xavier went an appalling 11-35 from inside the arc in that game, but it came down to rebounding at the end, and the Musketeers just didn’t. Butler rebounds much harder than the Golden Eagles.
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– Will Xavier start hot again? The Musketeers have been absolutely plagued by slow starts this season. Creighton and UConn leap to mind, but in most of their losses it has been first half trouble that doomed them. Then against Providence X scored 14 points in the first five minutes and managed to hold that momentum. A start like that would be vital again.
Three Keys
– Make shots: I know how reductive this is, but that doesn’t make it less true. When Xavier has an EFG% over 50, they win without fail. When it dips below 50 they either are playing Marist or they lose. If you need a refresher on just what EFG% is, Hoop Coach has a very good one.
– Get good bench play: Roddie is a given at this point. He’s going to score in double figures no matter how many shots it takes, and he’s going to play at 100 mph. Someone else needs to be useful. All Wright will get chances whether he is off the bench or starting. Pape N’Diaye has taken all the minutes for bigs. It would be very beneficial to this team for Isaiah Walker or Anthony Robinson to find at least ten serviceable minutes.
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– Rebound, rebound, rebound: When Butler has an offensive rebounding rate under 36.5%, they are 2-4. Their offense is predicated on getting their misses back. When they get more than that number, they are 8-2. Xavier doesn’t even have to be particularly good on the glass, just hold their mediocre line.
