The season, they tell us, is a marathon, not a sprint. Having trained for, executed, and now completed that marathon, Xavier now has a sprint to save its campaign.
Out of the blocks, Xavier will first be tasked with running down Marquette. The Golden Eagles finished seventh in the league, part of a five-team morass with six or seven wins and looking up at DePaul. It’s an ugly fate, to be sure. They won the tiebreaker between themselves, Providence, and Butler by going 3-1 against those teams. Their prize is competing in this game at 6:30 on a Wednesday. Winner gets UConn, who went 3-1 against these teams in the regular season, compiling a gaudy +75 scoring margin along the way.
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Because the Big East is the best basketball-centric league in the country, these teams played each twice during the regular season. The game at Marquette played out the same way that all too many of Xavier’s games did this season: no-show out of the gates, somehow against all odds find a way back in, come up just short at the end. In this one, it took Xavier more than 10 minutes to even crack double digits scoring. They found themselves down 10 at halftime and 13 with 12 minutes to go. They responded with an 11-0 run to make it interesting and eventually clawed in front on a Malik Messina-Moore bucket with 2 to play. They then didn’t score again down the stretch and lost a heartbreaker by a single point.
At Cintas, it went the exact opposite way. Xavier ripped off an 18-3 run before the first media timeout and then answered back-to-back Marquette buckets with another 10-0 spurt to push the lead to 28-10. They led by as many as 21 in the first half before Marquette pulled it back to 16 at the break. In agonizing slow motion, a 30-19 opening to the second half brought the visitors to within 5, Xavier pushed it back out to 10, Marquette cut it back to 4 with two minutes to play, and Xavier eventually salted it away at the line. The win prob chart said it was never really in doubt, but fans could be forgiven for having their hearts in their throats as the lead dwindled, grew, and then evaporated again.
If all is actually well that ends well, then that game was an unqualified success and this season still has the potential to be the same. It’s going to take something special over the next few days, and it has to start here.
Team fingerprint
Marquette’s offense was ninth in the league, and it comes down to a handful of factors. The most befuddling is that they’re well within the top half of the league in 3P rate at just over 40% of their attempts despite making only 32.7% of them. That probably directly contributes to another weakness, which is their low FT rate. They’re also bad on the offensive glass. They’re about league average in EFG% overall – thanks largely to being fourth in the Big East in two-point percentage at 53.8% – and turnover rate, and they play as fast as anyone in the conference. You wonder if they could have been a touch more effective if they weren’t chucking so many hopeless threes.
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Their defense was sixth in the Big East. They were strong in three of the four factors, placing second in the conference in turnover rate thanks to a hounding half-court pressure. They’re also fourth in both free throw rate and EFG%. If you do get a shot up against them though, you’ve got almost a 40% chance of getting it back off the glass, a number that was easily last in the league. They do a great job of smothering the arc and forcing live-ball turnovers, but it comes at the cost of leaving the glass more or less unattended.
Players
|
|
Starting matchups |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Nigel James Jr. |
Point Guard |
All Wright |
|
Freshman |
Class |
Sophomore |
|
6’0″, 190 |
Measurements |
6’3″, 190 |
|
16.4/3.5/4.8 |
Game line |
7.7/1.7/2 |
|
47.5/35.7/68.8 |
Shooting line |
47.1/43.4/83.3 |
|
|
This kid is a problem. He leads the team in both shots percentage and usage rate, and by team I mean league. Shaka has ridden him like Seattle Slew this year. He’s an excellent distributor who has sold ball security. He’s also 12th in the Big East with a 38.6% three-point percentage in league games. He has defended well while keeping himself mostly out of foul trouble, and he gets to the line well, though he’s not bathing himself in glory when he gets there. The sky is the limit for this dude. |
|
|
Adrien Stevens |
Shooting Guard |
Malik Messina-Moore |
|
Freshman |
Class |
Senior |
|
6’4″, 215 |
Measurements |
6’5″, 200 |
|
8/2.5/1.5 |
Game line |
10.8/3/3.9 |
|
45.1/39.6/72.4 |
Shooting line |
38/32.9/79.8 |
|
|
Stevens has literally half his classmate’s usage rate. He’s a standing shooter who is fifth in the league in three-point percentage. He doesn’t contribute much else on offense, though he can score inside the arc when necessary. Like most of Marquette’s perimeter defenders, he has an impressive steal rate. His job is mostly to keep his hands ready though, and his 41.9% three-point percentage in Big East games shows that he’s going that very well. |
|
|
Chase Ross |
Small Forward |
Tre Carroll |
|
Senior |
Class |
Senior |
|
6’5″, 210 |
Measurements |
6’8″, 235 |
|
14.2/4.1/3.4 |
Game line |
18/5.7/2.6 |
|
41.5/29/72.7 |
Shooting line |
50.8/35.4/70.9 |
|
|
Here’s the biggest question mark of the whole ordeal. If Tre Carroll can’t go, the whole thing goes sideways for Xavier. If he can play, he and Ross are the best matchup on the floor. Ross came into the year with huge expectations, and it’s not uncharitable to point out that he hasn’t met them. His three-point shooting and offensive efficiency have taken a nose dive in his senior season, and his defensive prowess and improved distribution haven’t made up for it. Seniors can write a legacy in March; I hope he doesn’t. |
|
|
Royce Parham |
Power Forward |
Filip Borovicanin |
|
Sophomore |
Class |
Senior |
|
6’8″, 230 |
Measurements |
6’9″, 227 |
|
12.2/4.8/0.9 |
Game line |
10.4/7.8/4.3 |
|
51.5/33/65 |
Shooting line |
42.6/33.3/86.3 |
|
|
Xavier’s jack-of-all-trades matches up against the man with the third-best EFG% in the conference. Parham is shooting 66% from inside the arc and 39% from beyond it in league play. He’s not a high-usage offensive player, but he makes the most of his chances. He’ll do a little work on the offensive glass and block a few shots, but he isn’t filling up the stat sheet when he’s not making shots. |
|
|
Ben Gold |
Center |
Jovan Milicevic |
|
Senior |
Class |
Sophomore |
|
6’11”, 235 |
Measurements |
6’10”, 241 |
|
8.1/5.6/0.9 |
Game line |
12/3.9/1.3 |
|
41.5/26.7/65.3 |
Shooting line |
44.9/43.4/71.2 |
|
|
What a conundrum this guy is. On one hand, he’s first in the Big East in two-point percentage at 72%. On the other, he takes more than 60% of his shots from beyond the arc despite shooting an abysmal 23.1% on them in league play. Dude is 6’11” with the shot selection of Brad Redford. He shows up on the defensive glass and stays out of foul trouble, but he hasn’t adjusted his game for the disappearance of his three-point shot. |
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About 30% of Marquette’s minutes come off the bench, which is just a couple ticks below the national average. To paraphrase Nelly, however, all minutes ain’t good minutes.
Their leading scorer who is both (a) not a starter and (b) not out for the season is 6’7″ sophomore forward Damarius Owens, proud owner of a 4.7/2.6/0.8 game line. He shoots about 57% from inside the arc but lets himself down by taking half his shots from deep, where he connects at just a 26% rate. He gets to the offensive glass okay and for all I know might well be a good kid, but he’s not what you look for in a sixth man.
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Caedin Hamilton is a 6’9″, 245-pound wall of a sophomore. He averages 2.9/2.9/0.6 per game and gets to the glass pretty well, especially on the offensive end. He also somehow shoots 43.4% from the floor despite taking 60 of his 77 shots this year from at the rim, and he fouls like he was subbed on late to keep Bam Adebayo from cracking 80.
Nobody else averages double digit minutes. Tre Norman and Michael Phillips II average about 8 minutes each and combine for a slash line of 4.1/2.7/1.0 as perimeter depth. Nobody else has played more than 6 minutes in a single game since January 4th. There have been some injuries, but this roster is in a sorry state.
Three Questions
– What percent is Tre Carroll? If it isn’t 100, Xavier is in serious trouble. There are no Twittersphere rumblings on this one. I fully expect him to give it a go.
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– Does anyone care? Sometimes these games where it appears certain elimination looms in the next round lack a bit of gusto. Theoretically both of these teams are playing for their chance to make the tournament. In practice, both of them know that UConn awaits. It should be obvious early which team thinks they can make this stick.
– Does Xavier have a second option? Tre Carroll is 1A, but who would be next? Maybe Jovan Milicevic. He had 21 in the last game, but he had 20 combined in the two games before that. Triple M hasn’t been very efficient recently. The lot may fall to Filip Borovicanin, who has certainly tried to carry the load with Carroll out.
Three Keys
– Defensive rebounding: The magic line for Xavier remains 68%. If they get that on the defensive glass, they have a chance to win. If they let an offense grab 33% of their misses, Xavier loses every single time. Marquette destroyed Xavier on the glass in the first matchup and won. Marquette grabbed 29.7% of their misses in the second game and Xavier won.
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– Make someone other than Nigel James beat you: Xavier allowed 30 to James in their win, but other than he and Royce Parham no one else really got going. James is an excellent scorer who can get them in bunches. X may have survived him getting hot once, but that’s absolutely playing with fire.
– Play some defense. Just any defense: “We guard nobody. We just guard nobody. We just hope they miss.” That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement from the head coach. When Xavier holds an opponent under a 115 offensive efficiency they are 12-3. That means that any time Xavier just keeps a team from playing like a top 90 offense, they have a good chance of winning. Somehow, they have only done that 15 times this season. Just play some defense.
