The NBA playoffs tip off Saturday and conclude with the NBA Finals in mid-June.
Which teams are worth backing on all the way to the NBA Finals? Which long shots deserve your attention? And who holds the best value for Finals’ MVP?
Here are Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick and Steve Alexander to answer those questions and provide their best bets for each first-round series.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
NBA playoffs roundtable
If you could only make one bet prior to the playoffs starting, what would it be?
San Antonio Spurs to win the NBA championship (+500): I think they’re the best team. They dominated Oklahoma City in the regular season and Victor Wembanyama is the most dangerous player in the league. I think they’ll take the kid gloves off and let him play max minutes in the postseason and if Stephon Castle and Wemby both play at peak levels, the Spurs are going to win it all. — Alexander
Spurs to win the Western Conference (+330): Like Mr. Alexander, I’m very bullish on the Spurs, who finished the regular season third in net rating and went 4-1 against the top-seeded Thunder. Wembanyama anchors the roster after averaging 25.0 PPG, 11.5 RPG and 3.1 BPG this season. It’s also worth noting that since the Warriors’ 2018 repeat, the league has seen seven different champions in seven years. — Moody
Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (+160): The Celtics have a clearer path to the Finals than the Thunder, but at much better pricing. The Western bracket features several candidates for best player on Earth, while the East has Boston and a series of young or flawed contenders. Fueled by the league’s second-best offense and fourth-best defense, Boston only gets stronger as the playoffs approach. — McCormick
Celtics to win series over Philadelphia 76ers (-900): Kudos to the 76ers for making the playoffs despite so many injuries, but I don’t see how, with Joel Embiid not playing, they can take more than a game or so from the Celtics. The Celtics are -900 to win that series, and it feels — I hate to admit — a bit low. — Karabell
What team is the best value to bet on to win the NBA Finals?
Detroit Pistons (22-1): They were easily the best and most consistent team in the East this season and the only thing holding them back is playoff experience, JB Bickerstaff is a solid coach and Cade Cunningham was an MVP candidate until late in the season. I don’t know if they can beat Boston, OKC or the Spurs in a seven-game series but at +2200, I’d be willing to find out. — Alexander
How are the Pistons at +2200 to win the Finals? No, I do not merely assume they represent the East just because they had the best record, or that they will beat the Celtics if they face off in the East Finals, but to have worse odds than the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks, who have won nothing in recent playoffs? I don’t see that one making sense. — Karabell
New York Knicks (18-1): When looking at the Eastern Conference, it’s easy to overlook the Knicks with the Celtics, Cavaliers and Pistons drawing most of the attention. However, New York finished the regular season ranked fourth in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating. That’s notable, as 22 of the last 25 champions finished in the top 10 in defensive rating. The Knicks also feature two elite offensive players in Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. This is a team that could surprise. — Moody
Boston Celtics (+550): Trust me, it hurts to believe so sincerely in Boston’s championship potential. I am a fan of the Spurs at their price, but they face a gauntlet in the West just to reach the Finals. The experience and guile of this Boston group has genuine championship potential. The premise for this paying off is simple — the Western finalist arrives weary from a series of long, grinding series, and Boston will be waiting, fresh and ready. — McCormick
What’s your favorite long shot bet heading into the playoffs?
Los Angeles Lakers to win the NBA championship (150-1): If Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves are all able to get healthy and play together, the Lakers can hang with anyone and have a lot of playoff experience. And while I’m not sure they’ll stay alive long enough to have their full team at their disposal, there’s always a chance it could happen. — Alexander
Nikola Jokic to win Finals MVP (10-1): Fresh off the greatest statistical season in NBA history — he was the first player since Wilt Chamberlain to lead the league in both rebounds and assists, and the best Box Plus/Minus ever recorded — Jokic is the rare offensive engine who might be able to overcome the Thunder and the Spurs. Getting such long odds speaks to just how difficult Denver’s path proves, yet it’s always fun to imagine what an inner-circle, all-time great in the heart of his prime might do. –– McCormick
Minnesota Timberwolves to win the NBA championship (100-1): Well, other than the Pistons, these seem like rather long odds for the Timberwolves, after that franchise did manage to advance to the West finals only one season ago. OK, so getting past the Nuggets in Round 1 will be a challenge, but didn’t the Wolves beat the Nuggets in Round 2 only two seasons ago? — Karabell
If you had to bet on a Finals MVP right now, who are you betting on?
Victor Wembanyama (+500): Wembanyama is the most exciting player in these playoffs, and I think the Spurs are going to stop limiting his minutes and will turn him loose in the playoff in hopes of winning it all. He can make all the plays on both ends of the court and surrounded by quality teammates like Castle, De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper and more, and the Spurs rich playoff history could work in their favor here. If the Spurs win it all, Wemby will be the MVP. – Alexander
It would be quite poetic for Boston’s Tatum to win it, and he has the fourth-best odds at +1100, but I think the top West team is the best in the league. Maybe that is the Thunder with the obvious pick of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but I kind of like Wembanyama at +500, too. Let’s go with Wemby taking over the league. — Karabell
Jayson Tatum (11-1): Tatum’s odds are intriguing, and based on the market, there’s a strong chance the Celtics represent the Eastern Conference in the Finals. He’s looked sharp since returning from last year’s torn Achilles, averaging 21.8 PPG, 10.0 RPG, and 5.3 APG in 16 games this season. There’s also added motivation for Tatum if Boston gets back to the Finals, as Jaylen Brown took home Finals MVP during the Celtics’ 2024 title run. — Moody
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+130): When it comes down to it, I think the Thunder will repeat. A Thunder championship is priced at +110, which makes this play for Shai even more inviting. It doesn’t feel very plausible that another member of the Thunder’s deep roster would outperform Gilgeous-Alexander enough to secure the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award. –– McCormick
Best bets for the Western Conference
Thunder to win series 4-1 (+205): The Thunder went 3-2 against the Suns in five regular-season meetings, but their wins were dominant, including blowouts by 49 and 27 points, showing a clear gap when Oklahoma City is at full strength. While Phoenix has multiple defenders for Gilgeous-Alexander and strong 3-point shooting, Oklahoma City’s ability to force turnovers and control tempo should outweigh those strengths. This Thunder team ranked third in net rating after the All-Star break, reinforcing its edge in this matchup. — Moody
No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets
Total games over 5.5 (-115): There is obvious uncertainty surrounding the Lakers because of several key injuries, but they do have LeBron, and the Rockets are, after all, the road team here. I expect a long series and for Doncic to impact it. — Karabell
Rockets win series 4-2 (+250): It’s difficult to see a path for the Lakers to upset the Rockets with Doncic and Reaves out indefinitely. James is still playing at an elite level, but the supporting cast around him leaves a lot to be desired. The Rockets closed the out the season strong, ranking ninth in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating post All-Star break. It’s difficult to back the Lakers in this scenario. — Moody
Anthony Edwards series leader in total points scored (+130): Jokic is a statistical monster, of course, but look for Edwards to handle as big a scoring lead as possible. Edwards averaged 31.6 PPG in a playoff series loss to Denver in 2023. He averaged 27.7 PPG when the Wolves got revenge in 2024. He is going to score a lot here. — Karabell
Nuggets 4-2 (+450). The Nuggets have been an offensive juggernaut post-All-Star break, ranking third in offensive rating, and they have the best player in the series in Jokic. Jokic and Jamal Murray have dominated opponents all season, and Denver also won the season series 3-1 against Minnesota. The Nuggets closed the year on a 12-game winning streak. While the Timberwolves rank 11th in defensive rating, Denver’s shot creation and experience should be enough to overcome that. — Moody
Spurs sweep (+175): The Spurs are one of the favorites to win the title and have a roster full of firepower behind Wembanyama. And while they don’t have much playoff experience, the Blazers are in the same boat outside of Jrue Holiday, who is playing very well right now. But I don’t even think we’ve seen the Spurs pull out all the stops one time this season, and once they do, they’re going to be very tough to beat — even one time. — Alexander
Deni Avdija series leader in total points (+145): Avdija has averaged 24.2 PPG this season with a 31.0% usage rate. Wembanyama impacts the game in so many ways, but the Spurs don’t always rely on him as a scorer. That’s not the case for Avdija and the Blazers. It’s a tough matchup, but he should see a high volume of field goal attempts. — Moody
The Deni Train is coming to Texas. The league leader in drives per game, this downhill bully — who got to the line at a rate only Doncic surpassed all year — faces a new challenge with the league’s best rim-protector in the paint. Avdija’s combination of usage and scoring strategies make this a fun counter to Wembanyama as the series favorite at -175. Speaking to his potential in this series, Avdija averaged 33 points in two showings against San Antonio this season. — McCormick
Best bets for the Eastern Conference
Pistons to win the Eastern Conference (+500): The Pistons were big surprises this season, but they did win the most games in the conference. With Cunningham and a solid defense around him, it feels unfair that the Cavaliers and Knicks — who have disappointed in recent playoffs — boast better odds. Maybe the Pistons can’t beat the Celtics, or any other team. Or maybe they can! — Karabell
Series total under 5.5 games (-110): The Pistons’ defense and depth create a difficult matchup for the Magic, especially in half-court situations where Orlando struggled this season. Detroit closed the year strong, ranking eighth in offensive rating and second in defensive rating over its final 10 games. Cunningham and Jalen Duren should prosper in this series, and the Pistons’ ability to control the tempo should lead to a short series. — Moody
Series goes under 5.5 games (-110): The Cavaliers’ offense, led by Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, along with their depth, will be too much for the Raptors to handle. Cleveland has also been exceptional in clutch situations, while Toronto lacks a true go-to scorer. This one could be over quickly. — Moody
Donovan Mitchell to average 30+ PPG in Round 1 (+225): The Cavaliers posted an offensive rating of 132 points per 100 possessions with Harden on the floor this season. That’s good, like historically good. Harden’s ability to not just defer, but celebrate his high-scoring peers has been a signature of this career transition as a playmaker. Mitchell has the keys to the scoring engine in this Cleveland offense, one that currently operates in the 100th percentile. The Toronto backcourt lacks the personnel to keep up with Mitchell through the gauntlet of screens and misdirections Kenny Atkinson has planned. — McCormick
Series goes over 5.5 games (-160): The Hawks are underdogs, but they are playing some of the best ball in the NBA right now. They’re 19-5 in their last 24 games and while the Knicks won the regular-season series 2-1, their two wins were both by just three points, including a 108-105 win on April 6. The Hawks should be up for the challenge and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jalen Johnson have basically been unstoppable this season. I’d be very surprised if this series doesn’t go at least six games. — Alexander
Nickeil Alexander-Walker series leader in total 3s made (+100): An awesome breakout season saw Shai’s cousin make the fourth-most 3s in the NBA and shoot the best efficiency of any player averaging at least eight attempts per game from deep during the 2025-26 campaign. Alexander-Walker just dropped 36 points, sinking seven from 3-point range against the Knicks earlier this month. Brunson shoots fewer, takes more difficult threes and does so at a lower percentage than Alexander-Walker. At even money, this is a fun play for a series that is otherwise difficult for me to predict. — McCormick
Total games under 5.5 (-190): The healthy Celtics, with Tatum and all the 3-point shooters and defenders, should be able to roll over the unhealthy 76ers, sans Embiid, and quite quickly. — Karabell
Jayson Tatum scores the most points in the series (+350): Tatum feels like he was robbed of his Finals MVP Award a couple of years ago, and has looked fantastic since returning from his torn Achilles. Whether or not he can outscore Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and teammate Jaylen Brown remains to be seen, but I have a feeling Tatum is going to leave it all on the floor and have a big series in a Boston win. — Alexander
Paul George series leader in total 3s made (+370): With a career-high 3-point attempt rate of 49.7%, George is lofting essentially half of his shots from deep this season. While it’s been an odd and abbreviated season for George, his utility as a secondary scorer and primary floor-spacer for the 76ers in this series is undeniable. The team simply needs George to create gravity to compete. I like Maxey at +220 in this category too, while the hedge against the Celtics is their deep collective of shooters. — McCormick
