It’s that time of year again! NHL teams who did not make the Stanley Cup playoffs will be laser-focused on lottery balls drawn at the NHL Network studios in Secaucus, New Jersey, on Tuesday. With so many possibilities and intrigue around the draft class, there are bound to be surprises.
There is no consensus on any player except Gavin McKenna, and even he has scouts questioning whether he should be the first player off the board. If your team needs a high-end defenseman, this is the year. There are a handful of prospects projected to become foundational pieces on the top pair.
My projections model is most heavily favored in this iteration of the rankings, with a few adjustments made. For a refresher, the model weighs scoring statistics from the current season and last season, league strength, tracking statistics (defensive, physical and transition play), age, size and injuries. The injury factor is only weighed as a function of games played given the impact on sample size for projection volatility. The model has five outputs:
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NHL ceiling: A player’s peak if everything goes right
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NHL floor: Worst playing outcome for prospect
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NHL probability: Probability the player plays 200 NHL games
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Most likely tier: What the player is most likely to be in the NHL based on statistical comparables
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Statistical comparable: A comparable player in their draft year, based on NHL production equivalency, position, and size
The biggest change this year is the addition of a statistical comparable. Note: This is not about what the comparable player has become in the NHL; it is a comparable to the player in their draft year, before being selected. The comparison accounts for the player’s position, NHL production equivalency, and size (to a lesser extent). It is not a projection of what the prospect will become in the NHL. Example: Chase Reid’s statistical comparable is Evan Bouchard. That does not mean Reid is going to become Bouchard, it means they are statistically comparable players in their respective draft years.
There are certainly some surprises on this draft ranking, and notably this is not how teams build their internal rankings. Players who appear that are lower down in the consensus lists — or players who are not on this ranking who are consensus first-round picks — should not be surprising. Given the model, this is likely related to production and statistical comparables. If a player has strong statistical comparables and produced well according to NHL equivalency, their projection and probability will be stronger. Players with strong 2024-2025 seasons (Ryan Roobroeck) are higher than consensus, because the model does not ignore that production and it raises their overall prospect value score.
Once more scouting and anecdotal information is accounted for in the coming weeks, this list will change. Here is how the top 32 rankings are shaping up right now:
1. Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State University (NCAA)
NHL ceiling: Star
NHL floor: Second line
NHL probability: 88%
Most likely tier: Top line
Statistical comparable: Clayton Keller
2. Ivar Stenberg, LW/RW, Frolunda HC (SHL)
NHL ceiling: Top line
NHL floor: Second line
NHL probability: 91%
Most likely tier: Top line
Statistical comparable: William Nylander
3. Carson Carels, D, Prince George (WHL)
NHL ceiling: Top pair
NHL floor: Top four
NHL probability: 80%
Most likely tier: Top pair
Statistical comparable: Zach Werenski
4. Chase Reid, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
NHL ceiling: Top pair
NHL floor: Middle pair
NHL probability: 65%
Most likely tier: Top pair
Statistical comparable: Evan Bouchard
5. Daxon Rudolph, D, Prince Albert (WHL)
NHL ceiling: Top pair
NHL floor: No. 5 defenseman
NHL probability: 71%
Most likely tier: Top four
Statistical comparable: Noah Hanifin
6. Nikita Klepov, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL ceiling: Star
NHL floor: Middle six
NHL probability: 84%
Most likely tier: Top line
Statistical comparable: Kyle Connor
7. Keaton Verhoeff, D, North Dakota (NCAA)
NHL ceiling: Top pair
NHL floor: No. 5 defenseman
NHL probability: 70%
Most likely tier: Top four
Statistical comparable: Aaron Ekblad
8. Ethan Belchetz, LW, Windsor (OHL)
NHL ceiling: Top line
NHL floor: Middle six
NHL probability: 82%
Most likely tier: Second line
Statistical comparable: Valeri Nichushkin
9. Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL)
NHL ceiling: Top line
NHL floor: Third line
NHL probability: 74%
Most likely tier: Second line
Statistical comparable: Matty Beniers
10. Adam Novotny, LW/RW, Peterborough (OHL)
NHL ceiling: Top line
NHL floor: Bottom six
NHL probability: 77%
Most likely tier: Second line
Statistical comparable: Timo Meier
11. Mathis Preston, F, Vancouver (WHL)
NHL ceiling: Top line
NHL floor: Non-NHL
NHL probability: 73%
Most likely tier: Middle six
Statistical comparable: Oliver Bjorkstrand
12. Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (Liiga)
NHL ceiling: Middle six
NHL floor: Fourth line
NHL probability: 89%
Most likely tier: Third line
Statistical comparable: Eetu Luostarinen
13. Viggo Bjorck, C/RW, Djurgardens IF (SHL)
NHL ceiling: Second line
NHL floor: Bottom six
NHL probability: 63%
Most likely tier: Middle six
Statistical comparable: Connor McMichael
14. Wyatt Cullen, F, USNTDP
NHL ceiling: Top six
NHL floor: Bottom six
NHL probability: 57%
Most likely tier: Middle six
Statistical comparable: Travis Konecny
15. Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)
NHL ceiling: Top line
NHL floor: Bottom six
NHL probability: 59%
Most likely tier: Middle-six center
Statistical comparable: Nick Schmaltz
16. Yegor Shilov, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL)
NHL ceiling: Top line
NHL floor: Middle six
NHL probability: 61%
Most likely tier: Second line
Statistical comparable: Jared McCann
17. Ryan Roobroeck, C, Niagara (OHL)
NHL ceiling: Top line
NHL floor: Fourth line
NHL probability: 85%
Most likely tier: Middle six
Statistical comparable: Sean Couturier
18. Alberts Smits, D, Jukurit (Liiga)
NHL ceiling: Top four
NHL floor: Depth defenseman
NHL probability: 52%
Most likely tier: Middle pair
Statistical comparable: Ryan Pulock
19. Ilia Morozov, F, Miami University (NCAA)
NHL ceiling: Top six
NHL floor: Third line
NHL probability: 44%
Most likely tier: Middle six
Statistical comparable: Will Cuylle
20. J.P. Hurlbert, F, Kamloops (WHL)
NHL ceiling: Top six
NHL floor: Non-NHL
NHL probability: 41%
Most likely tier: Second line
Statistical comparable: Nikolaj Ehlers
21. Ryan Lin, D, Vancouver (WHL)
NHL ceiling: Top pair
NHL floor: Non-NHL
NHL probability: 40%
Most likely tier: Bottom pair
Statistical comparable: Bowen Byram
22. Ryder Cali, C, North Bay (OHL)
NHL ceiling: Second line
NHL floor: Fourth line
NHL probability: 85%
Most likely tier: Bottom six
Statistical comparable: Jordan Kyrou
23. Adam Valentini, F, University of Michigan (NCAA)
NHL ceiling: Top six
NHL floor: Non-NHL
NHL probability: 66%
Most likely tier: Middle six
Statistical comparable: Bryan Rust
24. Tommy Bleyl, D, Moncton (QMJHL)
NHL ceiling: Top pair
NHL floor: Non-NHL
NHL probability: 42%
Most likely tier: Middle pair
Statistical comparable: Samuel Girard
25. Brooks Rogowski, C, Oshawa Generals (OHL)
NHL ceiling: Second line
NHL floor: Bottom six
NHL probability: 86%
Most likely tier: Third line
Statistical comparable: Pavel Zacha
26. Oscar Hemming, F, Boston College (NCAA)
NHL ceiling: Top six
NHL floor: Bottom six
NHL probability: 36%
Most likely tier: Third line
Statistical comparable: Mark Stone
27. Xavier Villeneuve, D, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
NHL ceiling: Top pair
NHL floor: Non-NHL
NHL probability: 40%
Most likely tier: Middle pair
Statistical comparable: Mario Ferraro
28. Liam Ruck, F, Medicine Hat (WHL)
NHL ceiling: Top six
NHL floor: Bottom six
NHL probability: 30%
Most likely tier: Second line
Statistical comparable: Brock Boeser
29. Elton Hermansson, RW/LW, MoDo (HockeyAllsvenskan)
NHL ceiling: Second line
NHL floor: Non-NHL
NHL probability: 29%
Most likely tier: Third line
Statistical comparable: Eduard Sale
30. Markus Ruck, F, Medicine Hat
NHL ceiling: Top six
NHL floor: Bottom six
NHL probability: 25%
Most likely tier: Second line
Statistical comparable: Brendan Brisson
31. Marcus Nordmark, LW, Djurgardens IF (U20 Nationell)
NHL ceiling: Top line
NHL floor: Non-NHL
NHL probability: 63%
Most likely tier: Middle six
Statistical comparable: Jake Neighbours
32. Maddox Dagenais, C, Quebec (QMJHL)
NHL ceiling: Second line
NHL floor: Bottom six
NHL probability: 43%
Most likely tier: Third line
Statistical comparable: Danny Nelson
