The 2026-27 college football season is nearly here, and while there’s still time to get your futures wagers in, bettors probably going to get a worse number on some season win totals than they would have a few weeks (or months) ago. Many respected bettors have already bet their already and shaped the market.
Don’t worry, though, we were able to talk to Paul Stone — a terrific college football handicapper — on the phone recently to get his take on a few over/unders he likes.
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Here are three of his favorite college football season win-total wagers (as always, shop around for the best price as the juice will vary at different books):
Michigan under 8.5 wins (-170)
Stone: “It’s not that I’m necessarily bearish on Michigan. I’m excited to see what they do in Kyle Whittingham’s first year – it’s more of a strength-of-schedule dilemma from my perspective. One publication ranks the Wolverines’ schedule as the second-toughest in the nation. They host Oklahoma in Week 2 in a virtual toss-up, plus they draw Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State in conference play – the latter two of those on the road. I think eight wins would be quite an accomplishment for Whittingham in his first season, so I like the under — even at -170.”
Arkansas under 4.5 wins (-175)
Stone: “Arkansas is coming off a 2-10 record. It was winless in SEC play last year and it has a first-year head coach in Ryan Silverfield, who was not the program’s first choice. They have a roster in my opinion devoid of frontline — or even mid-level — SEC-caliber talent. Looking at its schedule, the Razorbacks will defeat FCS Northern Alabama in their opener and should beat Tulsa in Week 4, but those are the only clear victories.
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“Arkansas will almost certainly be a double-digit underdog in eight of their other 10 games and project by my numbers to be getting at least a touchdown in the other two. I just can’t see the Razorbacks reaching five victories.”
Stone: “After Matt Campbell left Ames as the school’s all-time winningest coach, Iowa State has a new leader in Jimmy Rogers who spent last season at Washington State after winning the FCS national title at South Dakota State in 2023. Rogers has his work cut out for him in Week 1. It comes down to players and this roster simply isn’t built for success in the Big 12 at this point.
“Twenty-four Iowa State players have gone east with Campbell to Penn State and that includes three-year starting quarterback Rocco Becht. The Cyclones also don’t return a running back who gained 100 yards there last season or a receiver with 10 catches. Both lines are extremely green and only one of the team’s top 21 tacklers returns.”
