After excellent seasons, both Brentford and Brighton are remarkably still in with a chance of securing Champions League football for the very first time.
Brentford in particular have stunned the league, having been one of the favourites to go down following the departure of Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, Christian Nørgaard and manager Thomas Frank last summer.
If either team is able to pull off the greatest Premier League season in their history, there is a chance they will have to do so by losing on the final day.
Why might losing help Brentford or Brighton’s Champions League chances?
At the moment, the top five Premier League teams will qualify for the Champions League next season due to the league having secured the European Performance Spot as a result of English teams’ results in Europe this season.
However, if Aston Villa come fifth and win the Europa League, then that European Performance Spot is passed down to the team in sixth, with Villa having already secured direct qualification via their Europa League victory.
With both Brentford and Brighton vying for that sixth position, both sides will hope that Villa do not move up to fourth or even third, as that would mean the European Performance Spot would go to the team in fifth rather than sixth.
On the final day, Brentford travel to Liverpool and Brighton host Manchester United, the two teams which Villa could still overtake.
Therefore, if either Keith Andrews’ or Fabian Hürzeler’s sides were confident that they would finish sixth — and Villa were in danger of catching either Liverpool or United — then it would be in Brentford or Brighton’s interests to lose in order to ensure Villa remain in fifth and the Champions League spot is handed down.
How likely is that to happen?
Given the number of permutations involved, it would be a surprise to see either team go into the final day in such a situation.
For one, all of that would go out the window if Villa are unable to overturn the 1-0 deficit in their Europa League semifinal second leg against Nottingham Forest on Thursday.
It is also pretty unlikely that Manchester United — and therefore their final-day opponents Brighton — will get roped into any of this. Villa would have to beat Burnley and Liverpool and rely on United picking up less than four points from Sunderland and Forest in order to have a chance of catching Michael Carrick’s side on the final day.
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Brentford and Liverpool offer the most interesting case. Arne Slot’s side are only ahead of Villa on goal difference, meaning that their battle for fourth could very much go down to the wire, especially if their matchup on May 17 ends in a draw.
Nonetheless, if Brentford are to feel comfortable enough to lose to Liverpool on the final day and still secure sixth, they will need favourable results against Manchester City and Crystal Palace, and hope Bournemouth and Brighton fall away.
Of course, even in the event they do find themselves in this situation, there is no indication either Brentford or Brighton might decide to lose. But it is a peculiar quirk that it may, however unlikely, be in their interests.
