Start with this: There’s no replacing Tarik Skubal.
The Detroit Tigers are well aware that there’s no readymade replacement for the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner. But that doesn’t mean they have to cash in their chances at winning their first American League pennant since 2012 – or their first World Series title since 1984.
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Detroit suffered a significant blow when manager A.J. Hinch revealed Skubal will undergo elbow surgery to remove loose bodies from his throwing arm, a procedure that will sideline him into the second half – and probably right up to the Aug. 3 trading deadline, when the club will assess its spot in the standings and decide whether to add or subtract from its roster.
At 18-17, the Tigers are in a five-team dogfight in the AL Central, one that figures to come down to Detroit, Cleveland and perhaps Kansas City. And with nine AL teams within four games of the .500 mark, the wild card spot should be even more of a taffy pull.
The Tigers certainly suffered a setback, but all is not lost. A look at the ramifications of Skubal’s injury and how they may bounce back:
What are loose bodies? Tarik Skubal’s injury, surgery explained
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Pitching chaos is a given in Detroit, even with Tarik Skubal
Kind of appropriate that on the day Skubal’s surgery was announced, Hinch anointed reliever Tyler Holton the starting pitcher for their May 4 game against visiting Boston.
“Second bullpen game in a row,” Hinch noted.
And so it begins.
“Pitching chaos” has been a way of life in Detroit since the end of the 2024 season, when the Tigers rode Skubal and a menagerie of mound men to a startling late-season rally for a wild card spot and a playoff sweep of Houston before losing a stirring five-game ALDS to Cleveland.
In the years since, the Tigers have done their level best to avoid that scenario, re-signing Jack Flaherty, coaxing future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander back to the D and investing $115 million in lefty Framber Valdez.
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But just when it looked like they were out … the openers are back in.
So it goes when 10 pitchers are on the injured list, including bona fide starters Verlander, 2025 All-Star Casey Mize, Tommy John-rehabbing youngster Jackson Jobe and now Skubal. Yet Hinch is really, really good at orchestrating the pitching strategy, even if they may not know who’s starting the next game until everyone shows up the following day.
So bring on the Holtons and Brant Hurters and Brenan Hanifees and Ty Maddens. Detroit, this is your pitching staff. Hey, it’s worked before.
Framber Valdez must be a rock for Tigers without Tarik Skubal
The dude has pitched the Astros to a World Series title, is almost a lock for 180 to 200 innings a year and is hard to drive from a game. Now Valdez, signed to be a future anchor once Skubal leaves via free agency, must be their rock, immediately.
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So far, Valdez has been, well, fine.
He’s completed at least six innings in five of his seven starts, and uncoincidentally, the Tigers are 5-2 when he takes the mound. A .714 winning percentage will win a lot of divisions.
Valdez is not a threat to throw a no-hitter every time out like Skubal is. Yet he almost always keeps you in games, and that’s a bargain these days at $115 million. If he can maintain, the Tigers should be fine.
Jack Flaherty must find the strike zone
With a 5.90 ERA through seven starts, Jack Flaherty knows he must be better. Says he’s losing sleep over his performance. And realizes that a 17.7% walk rate and a 46.3% hard-hit percentage is a lethal combination.
Look at it like this: The Tigers are right at .500, and Flaherty couldn’t be much worse. With the bullpen arms stretched thin thanks to the above chaos, Flaherty will have to give them more than four innings pitched, his average outing thus far.
Tarik Skubal’s loss could be mitigated if Jack Flaherty, left, pitches better and Justin Verlander, right, returns from injury.
Detroit’s wounded arms claw back from IL
GM Scott Harris knew he was signing a 43-year-old when he brought Justin Verlander back to Detroit. Thirty starts was probably never going to be reality.
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And the club has nursed Verlander along in his return from hip inflammation, which sidelined him in April. Yet Verlander hasn’t graduated beyond numerous bullpen sessions, with vague plans beyond that after Hinch acknowledged the recovery was going “slower than I think he or we anticipated.”
Meanwhile, Casey Mize, second only to Skubal in his effectiveness this season, hit the IL last week with a right adductor strain. A vexing injury, and a discouraging prognosis after Mize initially said his groin tightness didn’t seem too serious.
The Tigers have to get Mize’s recovery right the first time, regardless of the length of his absence. Even if it’s tough to shelve a 2.90 ERA.
Tarik Skubal returns with a vengeance after attacking recovery
Let’s not forget: Skubal is a beast.
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The man with the nastiest fastball-changeup combo in the majors will surely attack his rehab and recovery with ferocity. And while the Tigers, like almost any organization in this era, will keep it vague on the prognosis and timeline, the two to three months that this surgery typically takes away will be a ticking clock for both the patient, the ballclub and fans.
No, Skubal won’t be able to speedrun his return. But if he at least hits the early part of the timeline and can work back up to something resembling full strength by mid-August, the Tigers will be well-armed for the stretch run and potentially the playoffs.
It’s on Hinch and club president Scott Harris to ensure they’re well-positioned when that time comes.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tarik Skubal surgery a setback, not fatal blow, for Detroit Tigers
