It has been very well established at this point, but Foster Griffin throws a lot of pitches, seven of them to be exact. In order of usage, Griffin throws a cutter, a 4-seam fastball, a sweeper, a sinker, a changeup, a curveball and a splitter. However, Foster Griffin is not just throwing a lot of pitches for the sake of it. All of these pitches work together to create a coherent arsenal.
I would not say that any singular pitch Griffin has is elite, but they are all at least average. He is also willing to throw any pitch at any time. Other than his changeup, Griffin throws all his pitches to either handedness of batter. That makes him very unpredictable. This unique arsenal, along with outstanding command is why Griffin has the lowest ERA of any left handed starter.
Let’s break down Griffin’s pitches and talk about how they play off of each other. The bread and butter for Griffin is his cutter. It is the pitch he usually turns to when he really needs a big out. He uses it 31% of the time, which is twice as much as the next closest pitch in his arsenal. His cutter gets solid results, with a .241 average against and 11 strikeouts generated on the pitch.
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However, like most cutter’s, Griffin uses it as a pitch to get soft contact. The average exit velocity against his cutter is just 85.5 MPH, which is very good. He loves spotting that cutter on the inside part of the plate to righties and moving away from lefties. It was his most used pitch before he went to Japan, and it is still the pitch he trusts the most now.
Against the Marlins last night, Griffin was locating the cutter brilliantly. He threw it in the zone 68% of the time, but stayed out of the middle of the plate. Griffin’s cutter set the tone last night, but there are so many other pitches he uses to make his cutter even better.
While Foster Griffin’s changeup is his fifth most used pitch on the season, he relied a lot on it last night. It was the offering he threw the second most, and it was very effective. Marlins hitters swung at the changeup five times, and came up empty on three occasions. The changeup is an offering Griffin uses a lot against righties. However, he has not thrown a changeup all year to a left handed hitter.
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With the Marlins stacking their lineup with righties, it is not much of a surprise that Griffin leaned on the changeup. Batters are only hitting .111 on the changeup this year. It pairs well with his cutter. The cutter comes into right handed hitters, while the changeup moves away from them.
One cool thing about Griffin is that he throws a changeup and a splitter that have two very distinct movement profiles. As Nats fans know, Griffin pitched in Japan for three years. Japanese pitchers love throwing splitters, so Griffin picked up that pitch while he was over there. Early in the season, the splitter was one of his better pitches. However, he has not had a great feel for it lately. Last night, he only threw two splitters, preferring the changeup instead.
Having two offspeed pitches is very unique though. Most guys either have a changeup or a splitter, not both. For pitchers, being unique is good and boy is Foster Griffin unique. Not many pitchers have 7 different pitches that are all in different velocity bands and have different movement profiles. Griffin does that, and you can see it when you look at the pitch plot.
Another pitch that Griffin learned in Japan was a sweeper. That pitch has become a massive weapon for him, especially against left handed hitters. His sweeper has a 35.9% whiff rate, the highest of any offering in his arsenal. When Griffin faces big left-handed power bats like Munetaka Murakami, the sweeper is the pitch he usually turns to. He gets a ton of movement on the sweeper, with three more inches of break than the average sweeper.
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It is crazy that we have gotten this deep into the story, and we have not discussed Griffin’s fastball at all. His heater is the least flashy pitch in his arsenal, but his 4-seamer and sinker both play important roles. Griffin is a soft-tosser, who only averages 91 MPH on his fastballs.
However, he is not afraid to show hitters his heater. Even though his fastball is not hard, you still have to respect the pitch. Batters are only hitting .200 on his 4-seamer and .118 against the sinker. The sinker generates a ton of weak contact, with the average exit velocity on the pitch being just 81.4 MPH. He loves spotting the sinker on the inside corner to lefties and away from righties. The sinker is another pitch he picked up in Japan.
While this play ended up being a disaster, a great example of how Griffin uses his sinker came in the first inning against Kyle Stowers. On a 1-2 pitch, he got the Marlins slugger to swing at a sinker just off the plate and inside. He hit a broken bat bouncer, but the Nats made an error on the play. The result was not what we wanted, but it was a good process.
Another thing that Griffin did really well last night was blowing the 4-seamer by guys. He does not have much velocity, but when he puts his fastball at the top of the zone, it can get whiffs, especially with two strikes. In those two strike counts, a fastball is the last thing these hitters are expecting when facing a junk baller like Griffin. That makes his 90-93 MPH heaters seem a lot harder.
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Somehow, there is still another pitch that Griffin throws that I have not talked about yet. The last pitch I want to discuss is Griffin’s curveball. His curveball is a classic 12-6 hook with a ton of drop. Against the Brewers in his previous start, the hook was a big time weapon for him. While he threw it 11% of the time last night, it took a back seat to some of his other pitches.
Last night, Foster Griffin showed how valuable a deep arsenal can be. He threw 38 cutters, 15 changeups, 14 sweepers, 13 4-seamers, 11 curveballs, 10 sinkers, and two splitters. Foster Griffin was truly an artist on the mound last night. That artistry got him through seven innings, where he allowed one earned run while striking out 9 and walking just one batter.
The craziest part is that I am not that surprised by his outing. This was definitely one of Griffin’s best outings, but it was not an outlier. He has gone at least six innings in his last four starts, and has only allowed four earned runs in those outings. That is incredible stuff for a guy who signed a 1-year $5.5 million deal.
He is just such a joy to watch on the mound. One of my favorite Foster Griffin clips is when he struck out the side against the Dodgers, using three different pitches to finish guys. That sums up the Foster Griffin experience so far. His ERA is 2.12, and he has been absolutely masterful. Some of the underlying numbers suggest he may have a tough time keeping this up, but even if he is half the pitcher he has been so far, that is a great deal for the Nats.
With how well he is pitching, Griffin should be a highly attractive trade chip. A lot of contenders need starting pitching right now, and Griffin should be one of the better rentals on the market. Who knows though, if the Nats keep playing as well as they have recently, will they be sellers? I still believe they will be, but it is fun to dream.
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Griffin could bring in a real haul for Paul Toboni, and who knows, they could always bring him back as a free agent in the offseason. The Nats missed on a couple pitching signings this offseason, but Foster Griffin has been a grand slam for this front office. Griffin was a 30 year old soft tosser, who only had 8 career innings in the big leagues.
However, Paul Toboni believed in the changes Griffin had made to his pitch mix and mentality. That belief is paying off in a way that I don’t even think the Nats front office could have expected. Foster Griffin has been absolutely fabulous, and that is thanks to his deep and extremely well rounded pitch mix.
