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The question has become a regular occurrence after every Denny Hamlin win (so it‘s lately been occurring quite regularly).
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Each win moves the Joe Gibbs Racing star up the career win list while also moving him closer to the checkered flag on an illustrious career.
Hamlin is racing to an expiration date — the end of the 2027 season. He‘s been open that the contract he has signed through next year will be his last in the Cup Series.
So it‘s become natural to wonder: Will Hamlin reconsider driving beyond next year if his performance remains so high level?
Team owners Joe and Heather Gibbs each were asked about it after Hamlin‘s past two wins (and both hoped he might change his mind).
After his 63rd career victory (and fourth this season, including the All-Star Race), Hamlin got asked about it twice in the span of 20 minutes.
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Both times, he essentially gave the same reply.
No.
And it‘s the right answer.
“I feel there‘s three things that happen,” Hamlin said after being pressed by analyst Dale Earnhardt Jr. on the Amazon Prime postrace show. “You lose your eyesight. You lose your reaction (time). And your body hurts.
“The body hurts are there. During the week, I‘m not recovering as quick. But the other two things, I still feel sharp. So, yeah, I want to go out like this. It‘s a fantasy land to do it.”
Denny Hamlin wins at Michigan.
Hamlin added some context later when asked by journalist Matt Weaver in the Michigan International Speedway media center.
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“If — and that‘s a big if — I‘m at this point and this fast at this point next year, it would be a tough, tough decision,” he said. “Because, again, I‘m planning for the downfall that I know will come.”
A studious driver who has stayed sharp into his mid-40s by spending countless hours in the simulator and burying himself in data, Hamlin has undoubtedly looked at how NASCAR stars tail off late in their careers.
It‘s not a pretty picture.
|
Driver |
Wins |
Career avg. finish |
Avg. finish in last 100 starts |
Wins in last 100 starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Richard Petty |
200 |
11.3 |
24.1 |
0 |
|
David Pearson |
105 |
11.0 |
18.9 |
7 |
|
Darrell Waltrip |
84 |
15.1 |
28.1 |
0 |
|
Tony Stewart |
49 |
14.1 |
21.0 |
1 |
|
Buck Baker |
46 |
11.4 |
17.5 |
0 |
|
Bill Elliott |
44 |
16.4 |
26.7 |
1 |
|
Dale Jarrett |
32 |
17.2 |
23.9 |
1 |
|
Ricky Rudd |
23 |
16.5 |
22.6 |
0 |
|
Terry Labonte |
22 |
16.6 |
27.3 |
0 |
|
Bobby Labonte |
21 |
19.6 |
25.9 |
0 |
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When the decline begins — and there‘s no way to predict the starting point — even the results of NASCAR Hall of Famers tend to fall off a cliff.
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Jimmie Johnson won three times in the 2017 season following his seventh championship … and then didn‘t win again (and hardly got close) over the final 95 races of his full-time career.
Richard Petty and Darrell Waltrip each went winless in their final eight Cup seasons, which became painfully ignominious stretches that exposed even legends are no match for Father Time.
As race car drivers rage against the dying of the light, there‘s invariably a popular phrase that gets bandied about: “Well, they didn‘t forget how to drive!”
It implies the blame lies with their cars or their teams. Somehow, it‘s those factors that are betraying them instead of their bodies.
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It‘s an objective fallacy.
The greats don‘t forget how to turn the wheel and stomp the accelerator, but their hand-eye coordination will inevitably deteriorate.
Petty recently admitted as much in explaining that “I love to drive race cars. It‘s hard to get out. I should have stopped earlier” when asked about his farewell 1992 season.
“The longer we run, the slower I got,” Petty said. “I should have seen it coming enough to say, ‘I don’t need to be doing this.‘ But again, I love to drive the race car so much that if they hadn‘t made me, I‘d probably still be driving.”
As a 1963 standard by Barbra Streisand goes, “I Stayed Too Long at the Fair.”
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Hamlin, who turns 46 in November, is acutely aware that there‘s no way to time a perfectly graceful exit. The best way is to err on the side of leaving too much on the table.
Denny Hamlin celebrates in Victory Lane at Michigan International Speedway following his NASCAR Cup Series win at the track.
It‘s a strategy that worked for Jeff Gordon, Ned Jarrett, Junior Johnson and Fred Lorenzen, all of whom left at or near the peak of their powers.
Why shouldn‘t Hamlin do the same?
His next win will put him alone in ninth place among NASCAR‘s career winners. The next spot on that list — Dale Earnhardt‘s 76 victories — is probably unattainable.
“I ain‘t getting to eighth,” Hamlin said. “So what am I doing? I‘m content. If I quit tomorrow, I swear I will feel no more gratified than if I go out there and win 72 races. It makes no difference.
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“Nobody cares. You‘ll be forgotten within six months of when you‘re not here. I might as well just enjoy life while I‘m still somewhat young and be able to be there a little bit more for the kids.”
Hamlin did leave the door open a crack.
If he wins three times in the first four months of the 2027 season, the decision gets harder, “but I find it hard to believe we‘re going to be at this level at this time next year.”
And he revealed that Gibbs, the only car owner he has had since entering Cup in 2006, will get one more chance to persuade him to stay in the offseason.
“I have a commitment to Joe no matter what,” Hamlin said. “I told him, ‘Just check with me in six months.‘”
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It‘s honorable to give Gibbs that option.
But Hamlin‘s answer should remain unchanged if asked back for 2028.
A polite but firm “No.”
