UFC Vegas 119’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Kape vs. Horiguchi

UFC Vegas 119 is live this weekend (Sat., June 20n 2026) inside META APEX and streaming on Paramount+. We are going from the White House to the Nevada warehouse this weekend, but the card waiting for us isn’t half bad.

The main event is Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi, which is a rematch from their RIZIN days. The winner of this is likely the next man up after Joshua Van rematches with Alexandre Pantoja for the Flyweight strap.

The co-main is Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Sitrling. Stirling showed some signs that he might be worth the hype in his last fight. And Cutelaba is always worth a watch.

Rounding out the main card is Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil, Andre Lima vs. Kevin Borjas, Vinicius Oliveira vs. Andre Fili and Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov.

The featured “Prelim” is soon to be contender Bia Mesquita vs. Melissa Mulins. There’s also Mitch Raposo vs. Allan Nascimento and Michael Aswell Jr. vs. Gaston Bolanos.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Vegas 119 Main Card Money Line Odds

Manel Kape (-162) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (+136)

Kape looked like a serious contender in his last fight — a first round destruction of Brandon Royval (see it here). That was his third win in a row, following finishes over Asu Almabayev and Bruno Silva. Both those wins were a little sketchy, though. He got away with eye pokes against Almabayev and a groin shot on Silva (after Silva put him down with a pair of nasty groin shots himself).

Horiguchi, meanwhile, has looked like a contender in his two bouts since returning to UFC, too. In Nov. 2025, he schooled Tagir Ulanbekov on the ground and scored a rear-naked choke win (see it here). In February he boxed up Amir Albazi.

This is a rematch from Kape and Horiguchi’s RIZIN days. They fought in 2017 and Horiguchi won by third round head and arm choke.

This is such a great fight to have right now. Both these men have really shown out in the last six months and both could pose some very interesting questions for Joshua Van (should he remain champ). I don’t think it’s worth paying too much attention to what happened when they faced each other nine years ago. Kape is a much better fighter today than he was then. Horiguchi hasn’t progressed as much, but I still think he’s a tough match-up for Kape.

Kape will hope to have the striking advantage in this fight. He has amazing power for a Flyweight and he’s got a five inch reach advantage on Horiguchi.

Horiguchi has never shied away from a fist-fight, though. He’ll like his striking in this match-up and he, too, has some power (though that was more evident when he fought at Bantamweight).

Horiguchi will have a very big wrestling advantage in this fight, though.

In his last loss, Kape was taken down three times by Muhammad Mokaev and that was the most significant thing that happened in the fight (Mokaev attempted eight takedowns). He managed to stay on his feet against Almabayev, who attempted six takedowns. That’s pretty good takedown defense from Kape.

However, Horiguchi is a different kind of wrestler than those two. Mokaev and Almabayev are extremely wrestle-heavy and when Kape got the timing on their takedowns he was able to stay out of a lot of trouble. Horiguchi mixed his takedown attempts with his striking in ways that we wish everyone else could. It’s going to be much harder for Kape to read when and where the takedown is coming from on Saturday.

Because of this I’m siding with the above average striker and elite wrestler to defeat the elite striker and below average wrestler.

The Gooch straight-up is a great bet for me, since I’m getting plus money. I’ll be going there, but let’s look at some other interesting things, too.

The round total is 4.5 with the over at -135 and the under at +105. I think this likely goes over. Both these guys are extremely durable. Horiguchi by decision is +250 and Kape by decision is +240. I think that’s a good bet if you like either guy. Kape by KO/TKO/DQ is surprisingly short at +185. Horiguchi is +900 to win by KO/TKO/DQ and +800 to win by submission.

Ultimately, give me Horiguchi on the moneyline. I think we’re in for a fun scrap, but those takedowns and top position will make the difference.

Best bet: Kyoji Horiguchi moneyline (+136)

Ion Cutelaba (+260) vs. Navajo Stirling (-325)

Cutelaba has been feasting on the shiny new toys at Light Heavyweight for the past two years. That started with a decision over the debuting Ivan Erslan (a feared knockout artist back then). And it was followed with a first round submission over Ibo Aslan (who was coming off two big finishes). He then lost a split decision to Modestas Bukauskas, which was a robbery. In his last fight he submitted former highly touted prospect Oumar Sy (see it here).

Stirling is 4-0 in UFC. He’s got some hype behind him, despite three of his wins being very forgettable decisions. He looked good in his last fight, though, a TKO over Bruno Lopes (see it here).

Light Heavyweight is wild, man. There’s so many guys who fight like flailing maniacs and who throw themselves into highlight reel wins and losses. Cutelaba has that wild streak in him, but he’s also proved very good at catching guys who get silly with him.

Stirling is not very silly. He’s very risk adverse and, could probably do with being a little more wild. In this match-up, though, I think he reservedness will really help him stay away from what Cutelaba is good at.

Stirling’s discipline will help him keep Cutelaba at arm’s length, which is pretty far away for someone with a freakish 79-inch reach. Cutelaba did beat Sy (who has an even freakier 83-inch reach), but Stirling is far more technical on the feet, and better coached, than Sy.

I think this could be a pretty boring fight where Stirling leads the dance from afar and doesn’t let Cutelaba get close enough to make this a barn-burner. I think Stirling’s coaching and intelligence might also help him if this goes to the ground.

I’ll take Stirling minus the points, because I think he’s got an outside shot at stopping Cutelaba. But mostly I see him winning a lopsided decision.

Best bet: Navajo Stirling -3.5 (-190)

Vinicius Oliveira (-285) vs. Andre Fili (+230)

Oliveira flubbed his lines when given a chance to crash the Bantamweight title picture in February. He was shutout and then tapped out by Mario Bautista in just under three rounds (see it here). He’d won four straight bouts before that, beating names like Kyler Phillips and Said Nurmagomedov. That one loss was enough to chase him from the division, though. He moves up to Featherweight here and was initially booked to face Giga Chikadze. Chikadze is out, though, so in comes the veteran Fili.

Fili has gone win-lose, win-lose for eight straight fights now. That’s given him a 13-12 1 NC record in UFC. Last time out, he fought really well against Jose Delgado, but lost a split decision. Before that he got the split decision win over Christian Rodriguez.

I don’t like this move for “Lok Dog.” This is one of those changes in division that looks a little bit like a band-aid solution. Oliveira looked very at home at Bantamweight and his only bad performance was against Bautista, who — we have to admit — is one of the top Bantamweights around right now. Oliveira isn’t a particularly big Bantamweight and it’s not like age is a factor in why he can’t cut weight anymore. He’s only 30. Featherweight doesn’t feel like a very safe place to move up to, either. There’s some big dudes up here.

Fili is a lot bigger than Oliveira. I think that might provide some issues for Oliveira. He might struggle to get past Fili’s jab and he might not have the muscle to put him on the ground or stay on top of him.

There’s a few underdogs I like deeper on the card and I’ve chickened out of taking them on the moneyline. I’m not going to do that here. I feel like the vibes are off on this move for Oliveira and I think Fili might continue his win-lose pattern here.

Best bet: Andre Fili moneyline (+230)

Christian Rodriguez (-185) vs. Hyder Amil (+154)

Rodriguez has had a very up and down UFC career. He’s 5-4 with underdog wins over Raul Rosas Jr., Isaac Dulgarian and Austin Bashi. But, he’s lost, as a favorite, to Andre Fili, Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa.

Amil, on the other hand, is looking to get back to winning ways. He announced himself with a Tekken combo finish on Jeong Yeong Lee in 2024 (see it here). But, then he squeaked past William Gomis with a split decision and then lost in 26 seconds to Jose Delgado. Last time out, he dropped a decision to Jamall Emmers.

This is an awful fight to try and predict. Both these guys have under-performed a lot lately and, with both of them, it’s hard to know which version of them is going to show up.

Amil will be throwing the kitchen sink at Rodriguez on Saturday. I just don’t know if he’s going to hit or miss. On his best night, Rodriguez is great at slipping and ripping (he has a lovely trip, too). But, I don’t know if he will pull the trigger.

Something that is consistent, with Rodriguez, is that he doesn’t get stopped a lot. He’s never been finished with strikes and only been submitted once (by Erosa, who was going through a purple patch at the time). That’s impressive given that he’s fought 16 times. Rodriguez also doesn’t get many finishes (all but one of his UFC wins were by decision).

Since I doubt Amil finishes him, and that he can finish Amil, I’m looking at this finishing by decision.

Best bet: Fight to Go the Distance – Yes (-150)

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Andre Lima (-600) vs. Kevin Borjas (+440)

If Lima were more active, he might be a Top 10 Flyweight and someone we talk about as a potential title contender. As it stands, though, the 11-0 Brazilian is just 4-0 in UFC despite joining the promotion in 2023. His last fight was a submission over Daniel Barez in March, 2025. Since then he’s had three fights fall through.

Borjas has lost his last two bouts. He was TKO’d by Imanol Rodriguez at the Mexico City card in February (see that here). Before that he lost a decision to Sumudaerji. Borjas is 1-4 in UFC, though he’s had a tough schedule.

I’m a big booster for Lima. At times he’s looked he could give anyone in the Top 5 a tough night. He just needs to fight more often to convince us that’s the case.

Borjas has been pretty underwhelming lately, with his amazing striking display over Ronaldo Rodriguez looking like a fluke now. I don’t think he can compete with Lima on the feet or on the ground. Lima has a 60 percent accuracy and 57 percent defense on significant strikes. Borjas has 44 percent accuracy and 49 percent defense.

And Lima’s got a very high 75 percent takedown accuracy. Borjas’ has a 70 percent takedown defense, but I still think Lima will be able to get him down and then style on him with submission attempts.

I think Lima gets the finish in this one, one way or another. I don’t have the line for it, but I would take him minus the points in this match. Since I don’t have that, I’ll go with the under.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+100)

Melsik Baghdasaryan (+250) vs. Murtazail Magomedov (-310)

Baghdasaryan hasn’t fought since Feb. 2025. That was a memorable beatdown he suffered at the hands (and elbows) of Jean Silva (see it here). He was supposed to get back in there in Dec. 2025, but had to pull out of a fight with Joanderson Brito on a few days notice. His UFC wins are over Tucker Lutz, Bruno Souza and Collin Anglin (all of whom has a combined UFC record of 1-7).

Magomedov got a first round technical knockout on Contender Series back in Sept. 2025. He’s 26 with a 10-0 record. Other than that APEX fight, he’s fought close to his home of Kyrgyzstan, most notably at the Octagon promotion.

Magomedov looks pretty good getting off the bus, but I think that covers up a little for how raw he is. He’s very athletic and powerful, but the decision making might not be there yet.

Baghdasaryan is the best fighter Magomedov has faced and I think there’s a chance the crafty veteran could cause an upset here. The lay-off for Baghdasaryan does concern me, though, enough for me to not straight up pick him here.

I will take Baghdasaryan with the +3.5 point spread, though. This covers me if Magomedov is totally out of his depth and also if we go to a close decision.

Best bet: Melsik Baghdasaryan +3.5 (+130)

UFC Vegas 119 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Bia Mesquita (-550) vs. Melissa Mullins (+410)

Mesquita has looked like the real deal through two UFC contests. She has totally dominated both Montse Rendon and Irina Alekseeva and scored career submissions four and five in those bouts. She’s now 7-0 with most her previous wins coming in LFA (where she was a champion).

Mullins is 2-2 in UFC and has had some entertaining brawls. Her last fight was more than one year ago — a unanimous decision loss to Darya Zheleznyakova (someone she beat on the regional scene). Her last win was a ground-and-pound technical knockout over Klaudia Sygula (see it here).

I’ve already seen enough of Mesquita to say she deserves to be in the Bantamweight title picture. Her 10 world championships and 10 Brazilian national championships make her one of the most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu players in UFC, regardless of gender. And she might be one of the best women we’ve seen at translating her BJJ game to MMA. She hides her takedowns behind strikes and she does not mess around with position over submission, she goes for the kill.

Mullins is not on her level, on the ground. Her hope is that she can scrap and hurt Mesquita enough to make her BJJ less dangerous. I don’t see it happening, though. I’ll take the under here, since I don’t have a line for Mesquita by submission.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-140)

Mitch Raposo (+164) vs. Allan Nascimento (-198)

Raposo’s last fight was in Oct. 2025. That’s when he took a decision over Azat Maksum as a +325 underdog. That’s a fact he made sure everyone knew after he had his hand raised. He was supposed to fight Nascimento in April, but he got sick on weigh-in day. Before the Maksum win, he lost back-to-back split decisions against Sumudaerji and Andre Lima.

Nascimento’s last fight was in Nov. 2025. He dominated Cody Durden back then and scored an anaconda choke submission. That was his fourth win in a row, following a decision over Jafel Filho and submission over Carlos Hernandez.

I feel like Raposo is finding it tough to calibrate himself for UFC competition. He won over Maksum with his boxing and despite being taken down seven times. He lost to Sumudaerji after just focusing on wrestling and offering just nine sig. strikes. So, I’m not sure if he knows what he wants to be in there. Those two performances might suggest that he can do well if he can figure out when and how much to mix his striking and wrestling.

Nascimento has himself figured out. He’s confident in striking, but wants things to hit the ground so he can go for submissions. I think he’s going to be spending some time on the ground with Raposo in this one. He might get a takedown, but he’s also good at getting the upper-hand when grappling from the bottom or when pressed into the cage.

I don’t see Raposo being able to stay on top of Nasicmento for long, if he wants to play that game. And I’m not sure how well he can box against him with a five inch reach disadvantage.

Best bet: Allen Nascimento moneyline (-198)

Michael Aswell Jr. (-425) vs. Gaston Bolanos (+330)

Aswell Jr. couldn’t keep up with hot prospect Luke Riley in his last fight. He lost the decision there in March. Before that he got a first round finish over Lucas Almeida. Almeida came into that fight trying to hide a clearly broken hand. Aswell’s other UFC appearances are decision losses to Bolaji Oki and Bogdan Grad (on Contender Series).

Bolanos was submitted by Quang Le in his last fight. That was all the way back in May 2025. Before that he got a decision win over Cortavious Romious. Bolanos is 2-2 in UFC with his other loss being a technical knockout to Marcus McGhee.

I’m a little surprised by this line here. I haven’t seen enough from Aswell to buy him as a -425 favorite against anyone. And I don’t think he and Bolanos are too far apart. Aswell is more of a brawler and has gained a reputation for being in fun fights (of which he’s mostly lost). Bolanos is one of those guys who is well rounded, but doesn’t excel at any one thing.

Aswell will want to brawl here, too. If Bolanos is wise, he’ll try and make this more of a mixed martial arts fight.

I’m not feeling bold enough to pick Bolanos outright, but I will go with the over to essentially fade Aswell’s chance of finishing him early.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-166)

Karol Rosa (-118) vs. Luana Santos (-102)

Rosa hasn’t competed since Aug. 2025, taking a decision over Nora Cornolle. She’s 8-4 in UFC now. Her other wins include decisions over Pannie Kianzad, Yana Santos and Joselyne Edwards. Her losses are to pretty decent opposition, including Ailin Perez and Irene Aldana.

Santos has won two straight thanks to a decision over Melissa Croden in Dec. 2025. She also beat Tainara Lisboa with an Americana (see it here). She’s now 5-1 in UFC action. Her only loss was to Casey O’Neill in 2024.

This is a really tough fight to call. Santos has the higher ceiling in this match-up, by far. But Rosa is a really tough out and she’s been in there with top opposition. Rosa is the more active striker, she lands almost twice the amount of sig. strikes a minute than Santos does. Santos is the more active grappler. She lands twice the number of takedowns per 15 minutes than Rosa does.

If this fight stays standing, then Rosa is probably going to chip away and get the decision. If Santos gets takedowns, then she probably racks up enough control time to get the decision go her way. I’m thinking we’re going to see a bit of both those things happening and that this leads to a split decision.

I am leaning Santos, though. She’s six years younger and I think her striking is closer to Rosa’s striking than Rosa’s grappling is to her grappling.

Best bet: Luana Santos moneyline (-102)

Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli

Shahbazyan was knocked out by Phil Rowe on Contender Series in 2019. He went 5-2 since then, but has won his last four. He’s got technical knockout losses to Ryan Loder and Gabe Green on his record. He’s 12-4 with eleven submission wins.

Chokheli had a long tenure in Bellator and went 4-3. He knocked out Sabah Homasi with a front kick back then. His losses include a submission against Goiti Yamauchi and a technical knockout to Lorenz Larkin.

Shahbazyan is a huge Welterweight. He’s 6’ 4” with a 74 inch reach. Chokheli isn’t small, though. He’s just three inches shorter with an inch less in reach.

There’s no odds on this one, at this time of writing, but I expect the more experienced Chokheli to be the favorite.

Shahbazyan is quite slow and lumbering. And his striking is not great. See him faceplant below, after whiffing on an elbow strike.

I’ll bet against the guy who did that.

Best bet: Levan Chokheli moneyline

Shane Collins vs. Otari Tanzilovi

This fight has been thrown together rather late. Collins is 26, 7-0 and has never been on a UFC property. He was a long time amateur, going 9-2 from 2019 to 2022. He’s fought mostly around California and he was a champion in Urijah Faber’s promotion.

Tanzilovi lost a split decision to Josias Musasa on Contender Series in 2024. Musasa has since proven to be a bit of a bust. Tanzilovi has won on some recognizable promotions, including Fury FC and UAE Warriors. He’s 28 and 10-1.

There’s no odds for this one, either, at this time of writing. Tanzilovi has done more, on bigger stages, than Collins has at this point. He’s a flashy kicker, but not terribly effective with it, though. But he compliments that with pretty solid Georgian wrestling (he has some good sweeps from the bottom, too).

Collins looks busy, but defensively quite porous. He’s also got some wrestling. I think Tanzilovi will have his number, though.

Best bet: Otari Tanzilovi moneyline

UFC Vegas 119 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Kyoji Horiguchi to win by submission (+800)

Who says lightning can’t strike twice? Horiguchi submitted Kape nine years ago and maybe he does that again here? I’m projecting him to enjoy his wrestling advantage over Kape and I think there’s a good chance that ends up putting Kape in some submission trouble.

Two-bet parlay: Andre Fili +3.5 and Melsik Baghdasaryan +3.5 (+406)

I like both these underdogs. I think Oliveira has chosen the wrong time to move up to Featherweight. And I don’t totally buy Magomedov as a big favorite. Give me both the dogs in those match-ups, plus the points please!

Bia Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins – First Minute Finish (+950)

I’m so high on Bia Mesquita. She’s no spring chicken, so she has to work fast to get a title shot. I think she works fast on Saturday, too, and stays undefeated.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 119: “Kape vs. Horiguchi” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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