Pittsburgh right-hander Braxton Ashcraft is having a breakout season, but he didn’t have his best stuff Monday at Philadelphia. He allowed two homers in the first inning and another in the third, spotting a 5-0 lead to the Phillies. One of those nights.
Alas, all was not lost for Ashcraft. He hung around for six innings, didn’t allow any runs over the final three. He struck out eight. And somehow, he was able to score his eighth win.
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That’s because Aaron Nola was pitching on the other side. Nola, a former Cy Young contender, was touched for eight hits and eight runs, seven of them earned. He allowed a couple of homers, too. His ERA jumped to 6.04, his WHIP rose to 1.49.
Nola’s had a fine career. He’s collected 112 wins and 1,963 strikeouts through 12 years. He charted in four different Cy Young races, finishing as high as third in 2018. The Phillies selected him with the seventh overall pick in 2014, and the LSU product came through nicely. This one goes down as a win.
But skill deterioration isn’t always pretty. Nola posted an ERA over 6.00 last year and it’s over 6.00 this year. His swinging strike rate is down, his hit rate is up, his walk rate has risen. These are common things for a pitcher navigating his mid-30s.
So it’s surprising to see Nola’s roster tag still afloat at 49%. This is no time to be sentimental. Some fantasy players are untouchables. Some favorite movies go down as rewatchables. Nola is our first recommendation in today’s piece, the droppables.
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Remember, in fantasy sports, it’s not about the names. We just want the numbers.
While Nola’s poor season makes some linear sense given his age and career track, the fall of Jarren Duran in Boston is more puzzling. He’s just 29 and was a plus-offensive player the past three years. This year, it’s all fallen apart: .197/.253/.356 slash, 101 strikeouts, 71 OPS+ (where 100 is league average).
The under-the-hood stats are not kind to Duran. All of his plate discipline stats are poor, and he’s not hitting the ball hard when he makes contact. His batted-ball outcomes have been unlucky, but just slightly so. The Statcast data suggests a .226 average for Duran and a .374 slugging percentage, still mediocre returns.
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The Red Sox have been patient with Duran, in part because Roman Anthony is hurt — an early-season outfield glut is no longer a problem. That said, Duran didn’t start in Boston’s last two games against a lefty. With the Red Sox starting to find some form — they swept the Yankees in four games over the weekend and beat Washington on Monday — I wonder if Duran’s platoon status is going to continue.
Duran does have 12 homers and 12 steals, so he’s not an automatic cut in every format. In one of my leagues, I’m sitting him for this week, hoping something sparks. But it’s fair to say that 91% roster tag is too high.
Given some of the emotional stress Duran has encountered in Boston, it’s fair to wonder if a fresh start could revive his career at the trade deadline, or perhaps over the winter. I’ll consider a buy-low at the table next year, reevaluate the position. But we have to be realistic with these things, too, especially in the present.
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Austin Riley is having a similar season in Atlanta. Still just 29, he’s fallen on hard times: .209/.289/.338, with eight homers. His plate discipline was never a strength, but it’s collapsed this year. And the hard-hit profile we normally expect with Riley has totally collapsed. It’s depressing to navigate his Savant page.
The Braves have been patient with Riley, starting him in all but two games. He has been demoted in the lineup, though — after slotting cleanup when the season started, he’s now found in the No. 6 or No. 7 positions. Heck, when I was sweating a Caleb Killian save chance I really needed on Sunday for one of my teams, I felt relieved when Riley’s spot came up. Riley promptly grounded out, helping San Francisco secure the win.
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There is some linear deterioration with Riley’s career, as his OPS+ has dropped in the last four seasons. I wanted to blame some of that on injuries the last two years, but that can’t be blamed now. When I scrubbed my Rest-of-Season Rankings the other day, I finally pushed Riley outside the top 200. But I understand why it can be hard to cut a name brand. Riley is still rostered in 85% of Yahoo leagues.
Luis Castillo’s case in Seattle reminds me of the Nola case. Despite a low homer rate and mild bump in velocity, Castillo is struggling in his age-33 season: 4.93 ERA, 1.36 WHIP. His walk rate is still solid, his strikeout rate now under code. He’s also allowing more hard contact and struggling to induce ground balls.
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In the preseason, I thought the roomy Seattle ballpark could help Castillo offset some skill deterioration, though I might have overlooked the mediocre defense behind Castillo. Either way, this was one cut I had no problem making about a month ago. Yahoo managers are more optimistic than I am, as Castillo still trades at 66%.
Final Thoughts
As we put a wrap on today’s piece, I want to take an understanding tone. Baseball is hard, and these guys above aren’t the only name players struggling. Fernando Tatis Jr. is stuck on three homers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gridlocked at four homers. Cal Raleigh, Manny Machado and Corey Seager are all hitting under .200. Mookie Betts is having a down year, another player struggling in his age-33 season. I know it’s not satisfying to say “hold the player, but recalibrate expectations” — but sometimes that’s the only move you really have.
That all said, July comes calling on Wednesday. At some point we have to accept that a bad start is really a bad season. It’s a tricky game for all of us.
