At the end of last season, Andrew Alvarez had five really nice starts for the Nats. He did not go that deep into games, but Alvarez proved to be effective with his breaking ball heavy attack. However, I was not fully convinced about the lefty. With a fastball that averaged 91, and middling results at AAA, I thought it was a flash in the pan.
This season Alvarez is proving me wrong one outing at a time. He is still not going deep into games, but he is just getting as many outs as the team needs. On the season, the 27 year old southpaw has a 3.05 ERA and 2.65 FIP in 41.1 innings across 11 appearances and 5 starts. The velocity is more in the 92-93 range and his breaking balls are as sharp as ever.
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For a guy who does not throw hard, Alvarez gets a ton of strikeouts. This season, he has 48 K’s in 41.1 innings. He is striking out 27.6% of hitters, which has him tied with Braxton Ashcraft and Reid Detmers, two breakout arms who throw much harder than him. My favorite part of Alvarez’s game is his ability to finish guys off with two strikes. It is a skill that not many arms on this staff have, but he does it super well.
His go-to two strike weapon and his best pitch is his curveball. It is a really sharp curve that he throws quite hard and commands well. His other pitches do not really pop on most stuff models, but stuff+ really likes his curve. Despite not throwing his fastball that hard, his 83 MPH curveball is significantly harder than the average 80 MPH lefty curve.
Most harder curveballs sacrifice some movement in exchange for the extra power. That is not the case for the Alvarez curve though. He actually gets more drop and break than the average curveball. It is truly a unique pitch and has been getting exceptional results. Batters are hitting .179 with a 35.1% whiff rate on his hook. Of his 48 strikeouts, 30 of them have come on the curveball. With that context, it is no surprise that the curveball is his most used pitch.
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The curve is not Alvarez’s only swing and miss breaking ball though. He also has a slider which he throws 26.3% of the time, just 2% less than the curve. The slider comes in at about the same speed, so if you did not know any better, you would think it is a misread curve. However, if you look at the pitch plot, the two pitches have very distinct movement profiles.
Having two breaking balls at the same speed with different movement is also a unique piece of Alvarez’s arsenal. The slider actually has a higher whiff rate than the curve, but it gets hit harder and he only has 11 strikeouts on the pitch. Here is a neat video of Alvarez getting strikeouts on the slider and the curve though.
It is no secret that Alvarez is a breaking ball reliant pitcher. He throws either the curve or the slider 54.7% of the time. That is his bread and butter, and he knows it. The fact that Alvarez knows himself so well as a pitcher is another strength for him.
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The fastball is not a strength of Alvarez’s game, but he mixes in his 4-seamer and sinker just enough. Batters are hitting over .300 on both, but the heaters keep them honest and get a good amount of ground balls. On the season, Alvarez has an elite 55% ground ball rate.
Despite not having a great fastball, Alvarez still has good stuff, just not in the traditional way. His breaking balls grade out well, and he uses that to get strikeouts. He is a good example of a pitcher not having to throw 100 to be a swing and miss guy.
While Alvarez will walk some hitters, his overall command is strong. He does a nice job placing his curveball at or below the bottom of the zone and locating his 4-seamer at the top of the zone. Alvarez also spots his sinker down and into lefties, which is a nice spot to put it. His overall location+ grade is 106, which is better than average.
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Overall, I am very encouraged by Alvarez’s season. The fastball will limit him, and he is not necessarily a guy you want facing hitters 3 times. However, he is a really solid piece in this pitching staff. Moving forward, I think he could have a lot of success in a Brad Lord type role.
We saw Lord and Alvarez team up yesterday, and that is a cool concept. Those two could combine for 7 innings and create a very good starter in the aggregate. While Alvarez does not have the flashy velocity many teams are looking for, he is proving that his spin heavy attack is not a flash in the pan.
