It has been done 14 times by nine different players: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Dan Marino, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert and (I’ll give you a billion guesses for the last name) Jameis Winston. The most recent 5,000-yard passer was Mahomes in 2022.
To clear 5,000 passing yards in a 17-game season, a quarterback must average 294.1 passing yards per contest. In Prescott’s best season (2019), he averaged 306.4 yards per contest and fell just 100 yards short of the 5,000-yard mark since there were 16 games. Interestingly, the Cowboys weren’t particularly pass-happy that season, with a 60.7% dropback rate that was below the league average. But they had a high total number of plays because they were moving fast. In their first season under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, no team snapped the ball with more time on the play clock. Only five offenses had more plays per game; only six ran no-huddle more frequently.
Last season, the Cowboys rediscovered their superspeed ways in their first year under coach Brian Schottenheimer and coordinator Klayton Adams. The Cowboys once again led the league in play clock remaining at the snap, and this time, they led the league in offensive plays per game. Prescott had a career-high 600 total pass attempts. The volume will be there for Prescott to not just lead the league in passing in 2026 but to once again challenge for the 5,000-yard milestone.
Volume is the first half of the riddle; explosiveness is the other half. To that end, the Cowboys must successfully get wide receiver George Pickens to play on the franchise tag for Prescott to reach the mark. Pickens unlocked a new level to his game in just one season with the Cowboys, as Prescott provided him with stable quarterback play for the first time in his NFL career.
It did take Dallas some time to riddle out the chemistry between Pickens and incumbent WR1 CeeDee Lamb, and Lamb missed four games early in the season with a high ankle sprain. When both Pickens and Lamb were on the field, Prescott averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt. When at least one was not on the field, that fell to 6.7. Lamb had a weird year in general, with a career-worst eight drops and his worst season for YAC since he was a rookie. It’s fair to project an improvement in the Cowboys’ passing game in Year 2 under Schottenheimer and Adams, as they’ve had time to iron out the wrinkles in the Lamb/Pickens pairing.
While the Cowboys’ offense should get better in 2026, it’ll likely remain a below-average unit, forcing them into shootouts that give Prescott additional dropbacks. There’s some concern in pass protection at both tackle spots for Dallas, but no environment can be perfect. As Prescott gets older, he’ll scramble less and instead throw more against pressure. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow is another good candidate to race to 5,000 over the next few seasons … but since Pickens might be a Cowboy for only one more year, I’ll pick Prescott to get over the mountain in 2026.
