NFL quarterbacks always face a great deal of pressure to deliver, but that will be ratcheted up even higher during the 2026 season.
The reason for this is simple. The 2027 NFL Draft is expected to be loaded at quarterback, with players like Dante Moore, Arch Manning, Julian Sayin and Brendan Sorsby earning acclaim among a massive group of potential first-round talents.
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That class will offer a potential lifeline to NFL teams starved for quarterback talent. It will also put plenty of current signal-callers on the hot seat as they look to prove they deserve to be long-term starters.
Some of the hot seat quarterbacks are obvious. There are a few veteran placeholders who already look like they will be bridges to young quarterbacks, be it from the 2026 or 2027 NFL Draft.
However, there are a handful of other more established quarterbacks who find themselves on the hot seat. If they fail to deliver in 2026, their squads could consider making significant changes at the position in 2027.
Here’s a look at the quarterbacks facing the most and least pressure ahead of the 2026 NFL season.
Hot seat
1. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Watson isn’t even guaranteed to open the season as Cleveland’s starter. He’s in a battle with Shedeur Sanders for that role, and even if the 30-year-old veteran wins the job out of the gate, it figures to switch hands frequently unless either signal-caller can enjoy a breakout season.
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Watson is in the final year of his fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract with the Browns as well. Barring a return to his 2020 form, it’s hard to imagine Cleveland re-upping with him given how disastrous that deal has been.
2. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals decided to stick with Brissett in 2026 after he posted great numbers in relief of Kyler Murray last season.
That said, while the 33-year-old posted an impressive 94.1 passer rating last season, he merely led Arizona to a 1-11 record across 12 starts. Similar results could lead the Cardinals to turn to rookie third-round pick Carson Beck sooner rather than later while planning to target a higher-end quarterback in the 2027 NFL Draft if the Miami product can’t find success.
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3. Geno Smith, New York Jets
Smith’s return to the Jets was sensible for the team once Dante Moore opted to return to school. The Jets weren’t positioned to land a high-end quarterback in the draft because of that, so Smith gives them a proven passer – and potential bounce-back candidate – to lead their young offense.
Still, Smith is merely on a one-year deal and will turn 36 in October. He’s the definition of a bridge quarterback, and the only question the Jets will need to answer is whether that will be a bridge to rookie fourth-rounder Cade Klubnik or one of the 2027 NFL Draft’s top quarterbacks – a group that will likely include Moore.
Getting warmer
4. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
Penix is entering a make-or-break year with the Falcons. He is set to battle Tua Tagovailoa for the right to start in Kevin Stefanski’s offense, and losing that competition could spell the beginning of the end for the 2024 first-round pick in Atlanta.
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Even if Penix wins it, he will need to improve upon his results from his first 12 NFL starts. He has posted a 4-8 record across those games while completing 59.6% of his passes for 2757 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions.
5. Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings
Murray is favored to win Minnesota’s quarterback competition over J.J. McCarthy, but it isn’t a forgone conclusion. Even if the 28-year-old does win it, he will be under pressure to immediately perform well or risk being replaced by the 2024 first-round pick.
Murray will also need to perform well enough to earn an extension with the Vikings, adding to the pressure that is on him. He is currently set to play the 2026 season on a veteran minimum contract.
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6. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts
Jones just signed a lucrative contract extension and is coming off a torn Achilles. That could lead the Colts to cut the 29-year-old some slack this season, especially after he was in the midst of a career-year before the injury.
At the same time, if Jones’ 2025 success proves to be a fluke, the Colts can move on from him following the 2026 season to create as much as $38 million in cap space, per Spotrac.com. That, plus the presence of 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson, could have Jones on a shorter leash than other recent big-money signees.
7. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Young has made strides across each of his three NFL seasons, including a solid leap in his second year under Dave Canales’ tutelage.
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But will it be enough to earning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft a lucrative, long-term extension? That may depend on whether Young can showcase he can be a playmaker at the position instead of a game manager. If he can’t, Carolina may explore finding competition for him during the 2027 offseason – or even replacing him.
8. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud finds himself in a similar boat to Young after plateauing following his rookie season in 2023. The Ohio State product will need to prove he can make the strides needed to be a franchise quarterback, especially after his abysmal 2025 postseason performance which saw him complete 51.9% of his passes for 462 yards, 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions – while also fumbling 5 times.
Stroud can quell those concerns quickly with a strong start to the season, but a continuation of his struggles could cause his seat to heat up quickly.
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9. Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins inked Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million contract during the offseason despite the four-year veteran having just six starts to his name. As such, Willis will need to prove he can find success in a larger role as a starter.
At the same time, the Dolphins figure to give him plenty of leeway to prove himself given the state of their roster. Miami doesn’t have a realistic way out of its contract with Willis until after the 2027 season, so this could be a two-year trial run.
Seats aren’t warm, but will they stay?
10. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers
Rodgers is entrenched as Pittsburgh’s starter. It’s just a matter of how long he will remain in that role. Many presumed he would retire after the 2025 NFL season – a campaign which even he admitted he believed would be his last – but the 42-year-old opted to come back for a second season in Pittsburgh.
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Still, retirement isn’t far off for Rodgers. Even if he plays all 17 games for the Steelers in 2026, it’s hard to imagine him coming back in 2027.
11. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Stafford is the bigger wild-card among quarterbacks who could retire. The 38-year-old clearly has a lot left in the tank after his MVP campaign in 2025, but he has detailed he is evaluating his future on a “year-by-year” basis.
As long as Stafford wants to play, Sean McVay and the Rams will be happy to have him.
12. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield isn’t going to retire, but his future with the Buccaneers is in doubt beyond the 2026 season. The two parties are attempting to negotiate a contract extension, but they haven’t yet been able to agree to terms.
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It’s well within the realm of possibility that Mayfield and the Buccaneers will find a middle ground. But if they can’t, Tampa Bay may have to consider switching things up at the position in 2027.
Neutral seats
13. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
Shough showed well across 10 starts during his rookie season, leading the Saints to a 5-4 record and completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. The 26-year-old has a nice combination of size, accuracy and mobility, so if he can take even a small step forward in 2026, he should put himself on solid footing.
14. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans
Ward had an up-and-down rookie season after being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. That said, he threw multiple touchdowns in four of his final five games, flashing the potential to grow in his second season.
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15. Jaxson Dart, New York Giants
Dart enjoyed a quality rookie campaign, thriving as a runner and showing an ability to limit turnovers while leading the Giants’ offense. Concussions were an issue for Dart as a rookie, but if he can avoid taking big hits in his second season, the sky is the limit for the 2025 first-round pick.
16. Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders spent the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on Mendoza and envision him becoming their long-term franchise quarterback. He will have a long leash on which to prove himself but will first have to battle Kirk Cousins for playing time as a rookie.
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Cool seats
17. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts’ capabilities as a runner and his ability to play accurate, turnover-free football make him an above-average NFL quarterback. His ceiling is that of an MVP candidate, but his inconsistencies as a passing playmaker make him a bit more system-dependent than other quarterbacks on this list.
18. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Nix has led the Broncos to double-digit wins in each of his first two seasons. The 2024 first-round pick has good pocket presence, mobility and has clearly earned the trust of Sean Payton, even if his ceiling isn’t as high as some of the NFL’s other established quarterbacks.
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19. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Love has posted a 27-19-1 record and a 97.8 passer rating across his three seasons as the Packers’ primary starting quarterback. The only blemish on his resume is that he hasn’t yet guided Green Bay to anything better than the NFC’s No. 7 seed as a starter.
20. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Daniels enjoyed a prolific rookie season before his 2025 campaign was derailed by injuries. The 25-year-old still profiles as one of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks, but Washington knows how critical it will be to see him stay on the field in 2026.
21. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Many were concerned about how Goff would fare after Ben Johnson’s departure from the Lions. He responded by completing 68% of his passes for 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Not too shabby, and certainly good enough for Detroit to continue viewing him as a rock-solid starter.
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22. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Injury issues plagued Purdy last season, but he showed particularly well across a torrid stretch during which he led the 49ers to six consecutive wins while completing 70.7% of his passes for 1,454 yards, 16 touchdowns and five interceptions.
23. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott seems likely to remain Dallas’ quarterback for his entire career, or at least as long as Jerry Jones continues to have a say in front office matters. He has thrown for at least 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns in two of the last three seasons and should remain effective entering his age-33 campaign.
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Cold seats
24. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence enjoyed what was, far and way, his best-ever season in his first year working with Liam Coen. He has surpassed 4,000 passing yards in three of the last four seasons, so the sky remains the limit for the 26-year-old, especially as he grows more comfortable working alongside Coen.
25. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert has been one of the NFL’s most consistent quarterbacks since entering the league in 2020. He has paired well with Jim Harbaugh across their first two seasons together, but it will be critical for the 28-year-old to soon earn his first postseason win.
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26. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
Last season, Darnold joined Tom Brady as the only NFL quarterbacks to win 14 starts in back-to-back seasons. He also helped guide the Seahawks to a Super Bowl win. That should buy him long-term job security in Seattle.
27. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Williams very nearly became the Bears’ first-ever 4,000-yard passer in his first season working with Ben Johnson. He also nearly guided Chicago to an NFC championship game appearance, so there is a lot of optimism surrounding him for 2026 and beyond.
28. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Maye finished second in the NFL’s MVP voting and helped the Patriots make a shocking trip to Super Bowl 60. Granted, Maye played an easy regular-season schedule and had his share of struggles in the postseason, but nonetheless, he has bought himself a relatively long leash in New England.
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29. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow implied he wasn’t having fun playing football at the end of the 2025 season, which led to some uncertainty about his future in Cincinnati. He later clarified those comments were about him personally and not related to the Bengals.
That’s good news for the Bengals, who certainly want to keep him long-term and could go a long way toward achieving that goal by making it into the playoffs for the first time since 2022.
Ice cold seats
30. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson is coming off a career-low 349 rushing yards as he was plagued by a hamstring injury in 2025. Even so, he remains one of the league’s most explosive playmakers at quarterback and one of the true dual-threat options at the position.
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31. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Speaking of dual-threat options, Allen has accounted for 74.1% of the Bills’ offense over the last seven seasons. Expect him to be in Buffalo for life.
32. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes has guided the Chiefs to three Super Bowl victories and has won the NFL MVP award twice during his eight years as a starter. Enough said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ranking NFL’s hot seat QBs for 2026: Who is facing most pressure to deliver?
