UFC 329 predictions: Can Conor McGregor actually overcome a 5-year layoff against Max Holloway?

Conor McGregor is back. After a five-year absence from MMA, the sport’s all-time biggest star returns to headline yet another International Fight Week.

UFC 329 sees “The Notorious” Irishman rematch his fellow former featherweight champion Max Holloway, but this time at welterweight, making it Holloway’s first fight at 170 pounds. Similar to McGregor, Holloway looks to rebound from a tough loss his last time out while also seeking redemption after losing the pair’s first clash in 2013.

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Unlike McGregor events of the past, UFC 329 is a relatively stacked lineup from top to bottom. In the co-main event, modern-day star contender Paddy Pimblett battles Benoit Saint Denis in the Liverpudlian’s first appearance since suffering his first UFC defeat.

Former champions are sprinkled throughout the card as well, giving this weekend a big-time International Fight Week feel. The comeback element of UFC 329’s main event is compelling and nostalgic for those of us who lived through McGregor’s rise, but this card is, plain and simple, a great lineup despite the lack of an official title tilt.

👑 UFC 329’s lineup Crown grade: A. 👑

170 pounds: Conor McGregor (+190) vs. Max Holloway (-235)

The better half of the past decade hasn’t been kind to McGregor. When we last saw the superstar knockout artist in the Octagon, he was stuck against the cage wall as a medical team adjusted his shattered, limp leg. McGregor had just suffered his second straight TKO loss to Dustin Poirier, making him winless since a 2020 stoppage of Donald Cerrone.

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Outside of the cage, McGregor has kept his name in headlines, venturing into Hollywood while dealing with legal troubles aplenty. In July 2021, McGregor was found liable in a high-profile Irish civil trial for the 2018 sexual assault of Nikita Hand. Any other attempts to return to fighting were limited to a clash with Michael Chandler in June 2024, which ultimately fell apart when McGregor withdrew with a broken pinky toe.

Now, he’s back. And for further perspective, over McGregor’s time away, Holloway has gone 6-4 in 10 bouts in the UFC, losing exclusively to championship opposition: Alexander Volkanovski (twice), Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira.

To state the obvious, the versions of McGregor and Holloway we’ll see on Saturday are night and day compared to their first clash — and likely in deeply contrasting ways. What we know for certain is that Holloway has leveled up over the past six years and delivered some of the greatest performances, not just in his career, but in UFC history. Meanwhile, McGregor has been inactive after a catastrophic leg break. There’s no way around that.

The welterweight element of this fight is what could make it more intriguing. McGregor carries knockout power regardless of weight, and that’s always the last attribute to go for any fighter. Holloway, on the other hand, has finally seen his preposterously durable chin cracked in recent years. But that may be the lone advantage McGregor will hold.

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Holloway has speed and, most importantly, activity on his side. His relentless “death by a thousand cuts” style of volume can overwhelm McGregor early and often, taxing the Irishman as the fight progresses. Holloway simply doesn’t tire, though, which couldn’t be said for the McGregor we knew even before his half-decade layoff. Obviously, it would be insane to think Holloway won’t target McGregor’s previously broken leg, too.

As we know, there are levels to this game, and Holloway is still among the highest level in the sport, whereas McGregor objectively is not. He simply hasn’t been in the sport. If he can’t find the killshot early, any hope of a miraculous all-time comeback win will be lost.

Still, I have to say, these are the types of odds-defying moments McGregor made a career out of. Does he have one more in him?

It’s incredibly unlikely, but that’s what’s drawing the fight world in.

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Pick: Holloway

155 pounds: Benoît Saint Denis (-145) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+120)

Justin Gaethje just dominated Pimblett for five rounds. Does that say more about how great Gaethje is, or about Pimblett truly not being ready for elite competition?

It’s difficult to say until we see this Saint Denis matchup. “BSD” arguably hasn’t reached elite status yet either, but he’s an on-paper nightmare for “The Baddy.” We’re talking about a finisher through and through, as Saint Denis defines get-or-get-got at 155 pounds.

Since his stoppage loss to Renato Moicano in 2024, Saint Denis has blitzed through all comers, finishing the likes of Mauricio Ruffy, Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush. The guy personifies war inside the cage and comes for blood at every waking moment.

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Pimblett’s toughness and durability were praised for surviving the damage Gaethje dealt. But again, had that been the same version of Gaethje who dethroned Topuria, it may have been a different story. Pimblett gets hit, and allowing “BSD” to connect is a recipe for disaster. If this fight hits the mat, it’s not a wrap for Pimblett, but he’ll desperately want to avoid any semblance of a fire-fight in this one; otherwise his head is flying into the rafters.

Defensively, Saint Denis should be sound enough to stifle any offensive grappling from Liverpool’s finest, dishing out damage aplenty in the process.

Pick: Saint Denis

135 pounds: Cory Sandhagen (-150) vs. Mario Bautista (+125)

This one gave me the most pause when assessing these UFC 329 predictions.

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Yes, it’s a rematch of a fight Cory Sandhagen won more than seven years ago. He’s been old reliable ever since — an absolute killer who simply can’t capture the crown. Bautista, on the other hand, has reached a level of consistency that took a sharp turn back into a positive direction with his February win over Vinicius Oliveira.

Technically speaking, this is the best fight on the whole card.

Sandhagen submitted Bautista with an armbar in their first fight in 2019, but it’s difficult to imagine a similar outcome. Bautista has really tightened up his wrestling and pressure game, accompanying it with a high-paced boxing attack. There’s always something coming your way when Bautista is in front of you. That could play into Sandhagen’s brilliant counter game, but that’s where mixing in wrestling exchanges becomes crucial.

I really want to pick Bautista for the redemptive upset here. His last performance was phenomenal. But Sandhagen is just so damn creative, and already holds the mental edge with his prior victory and having competed atop the division for longer.

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For that, I have to give Sandhagen the ever-so-slight nod.

Pick: Sandhagen

125 pounds: Brandon Royval (+185) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (-225)

Flyweight just rules, doesn’t it?

You really see the depth of this card when you consider that all the fights we’ve already looked at could be main events, including this one.

Lone’er Kavanagh broke through in a wildly unexpected fashion by defeating former two-time UFC champion Brandon Moreno in Mexico this past February. His striking was on full display that night, with beautiful fluidity and precision Moreno couldn’t match. His takedown defense was on point, and he looked every bit the role of a new contender.

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Brandon Royval, however, has been a contender. This is still new territory for Kavanagh, and few throw down at 125 pounds the way “Raw Dog” does.

The wars catch up to everyone eventually, and Royval will bring the scrap to Kavanagh. You’d think that could be a recipe for overwhelming the Brit, but look at what Kavanagh just did in enemy territory. He’s quick and clean, and has thus far displayed a much more tactical, sharper overall striking game than the always-game Royval. The one-time title challenger will need to make this one ugly and initiate some of those patented, wild scrambles, but first he’ll have to get hold of Kavanagh, which is easier said than done.

Kavanagh sold me a ticket with his last win. We’re looking at a new contender who’s here to stay.

Pick: Kavanagh

155 pounds: King Green (+135) vs. Terrance McKinney (-165)

There’s never much to break down with Terrance McKinney fights, folks. We know this by now — and frankly, the same goes for King Green too.

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The styles of these two contrast mightily. McKinney is reckless abandon, especially compared to Green’s showman, clinical boxing approach. McKinney has been resurgent lately and looked phenomenal in his last two fights specifically.

Those performances can be thrown out the window here, though. Green needs to sit back and bite down on his mouthpiece while McKinney’s storm greets him. It’s a tough ask for the veteran, who has been bolted badly in recent years, despite his current win streak. That’s not to say McKinney hasn’t been either; these are just scenarios we see him thrive in more than we do Green.

Someone here is going home early. And I mean, like, under two minutes early. I have to take the consistent chaos, and that’s “T-Wrecks.”

Pick: McKinney

Preliminary Notes

It’s insane that Robert Whittaker’s light heavyweight debut is completely buried on UFC 329. I totally forgot his fight with Nikita Krylov was even happening here, but what a joy that it is. Talk about a great, compelling closer to the prelims.

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Similar to Whittaker, another former UFC champion — Cody Garbrandt — is also back in action, competing twice in a calendar year for the first time since 2023. Unfortunately for him, it’s a nightmare matchup against Adrian Yanez, who’ll bring the slugfest to “No Love.” Let’s just hope there aren’t an absurd number of low blows in that one.

Regarding notable UFC debuts, heavyweight Olympic champion wrestler Gable Steveson is also buried on the undercard of UFC 329. As a highly-touted prospect, Steveson’s rise through the UFC will be one of the more compelling stories to watch in the coming years — assuming he can live up to the lofty expectations placed upon him.

UFC 329 is a great lineup, folks. Sit down and enjoy a great Saturday of fights from the opening bell to the closing curtain.

Quick picks:

• Robert Whittaker (-150) def. Nikita Krylov (+125)

• Gable Steveson (-3000) def. Elisha Ellison (+1150)

• Adrian Yañez (-450) def. Cody Garbrandt (+340)

• Luke Riley (-300) def. Kai Kamaka III (+240)

• Tracy Cortez (-105) def. Wang Cong (-115)

• Damian Pinas (-225) def. César Almeida (+185)

• Farid Basharat (-650) def. John Garza (+475)

• Zachary Reese (+110) def. Ryan Gandra (-135)

• Alessandro Costa (-275) def. Cody Durden (+225)