What Can We Expect from Caeleb Dressel at U.S. Nationals?
Caeleb Dressel is back searching for a return to the top. The nine-time Olympic gold medalist has been consistently racing since the U.S. Open in December. He will look to have his best meet at the U.S. Nationals in Irvine, Calif., to close out the summer. The 29-year-old has not had great results this season, but after some stronger performances at the Indianapolis Pro Series, Dressel could see himself close to the top in the world rankings if he produces a strong Nationals. After going back to his old coach, Steve Jungbluth, Nationals will be just one step in his goal to return back to the top step of the podium come 2028.
Races
Although the entry list is not out yet, it should be easy to narrow down what Dressel will swim at Nationals, the 50 and 100 butterfly as well as the 50 and 100 freestyle. These are the only events he has swum this season. His most competitive race this season, as well as during his comeback in 2024, has been the 100 fly. Dressel finished third at the Fort Lauderdale Open and fourth at the U.S. Open in the 100 fly. Ilya Kharun will be a great test in this race. Since Kharun’s impending citizenship change, he is not eligible to race at Pan Pacs, leaving his only option as U.S. Nationals.
The 100 free will be Dressel’s biggest task. It has been arguably his most challenging race of the season. He has only swum it a few times, and has struggled to break 49. At the last TYR Pro Series, Dressel swam a 48.65. This time would have put him fifth in the A final, but Dressel swam a 49.69 in the prelims, which left him in the C final.
Both 50s have been strong races for Dressel this season. It should be a guarantee that he swims the 50 free after a strong showing at the Indianapolis Pro Series. The 50 fly is the second day of the meet, with no other events on that day for Dressel. The schedule for the meet lines up perfectly for Dressel. He swims on days one, two, three, and five. This leaves him with a lot of rest and not too much pressure on his body.
Expectations for Dressel
The expectations for Dressel should be low. He has raced less than usual over the past two years with an eye on the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028. Greats like Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte have proven that a comeback at an older age is possible. Phelps was 31 and Lochte 32 at the 2016 Olympics. Dressel is currently 29 and would be 31 at the 2028 Olympics.
This meet could be very reminiscent of Phelps at Nationals in 2015. At that time, he was unable to compete at the World Championships, so his only option was to swim at U.S. Nationals. That meet was a historic one for Phelps. He put up some of the fastest times in the world in his three main events, the 100 and 200 fly, plus the 200 IM, and the fastest times of his comeback. Dressel has a chance to do the same. He has been trending up all season and has zero pressure at this meet. He will want to put up times that rival swimmers competing at Pan Pacs. This meet will show how far Dressel has to go in his comeback. His biggest test will be Kharun in both butterfly events. If he can win those, then Dressel’s stock will be high.
His fly has been very strong this year while his freestyle has taken a little longer to come around. If Dressel was going to put up top times, it would most likely be in the 100 fly. Dressel currently ranks 17th in the world this year in the 100 fly; any time in the 50.5 range or under would put him in the top-five, at least for now. Dressel knows what it takes to be a superstar, and his raw talent has not disappeared, giving him a real chance for special swims in the latter years of his career as he chases a fourth Olympic appearance.
