“Trap game” is often a term saved for football. In basketball, a more volatile and unpredictable sport on a game-to-game basis, the gap has to be relatively wide between a pair of foes for any outing to be dubbed a “trap game.” But Illinois is going to be that good in 2026-27, yet the Illini have had a recent penchant for dropping contests they have no business losing.
So here we are: Illinois’ top three “upset watch” games in Big Ten play in the 2026-27 season. (Disclaimer: all three of these opponents are NCAA Tournament contenders. Nevertheless, these are outings the Illini are largely expected to cruise in.)
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Three Big Ten games Illinois can’t afford to overlook in 2026-27
Mar 26, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum reacts in the first half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
No. 3: vs. Iowa
In 2025-26, Iowa finished dead even in Big Ten play, going 10-10 (and it should be noted that the Hawkeyes went toe-to-toe with the Illini for 40 minutes in Iowa City). But it was the postseason success from Ben McCollum’s squad that drew so much praise. In his first year at the helm, McCollum led Iowa to the Elite Eight before his club finally fell to none other than Illinois.
McCollum can really coach. That isn’t up for debate. But with Bennett Stirtz out of the mix, can Iowa actually compete with this 2026-27 Illini team – especially in Champaign? The knee-jerk reaction may be no – which is why this contest makes the list.
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Transfers Ty’Reek Coleman and Andrew McKeever provide Iowa with reinforcements in the backcourt and frontcourt, respectively, while the Hawkeyes return nearly their entire wing rotation. And in case we weren’t crystal clear, McCollum is one of the top coaches in the league – and probably the country. Expect Iowa to yet again challenge Illinois in the 2026-27 campaign, though the Illini may be less likely to underestimate the Hawkeyes this time around.
No. 2: vs. Ohio State
Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Jake Diebler reacts in the second half during a first round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Speaking of key losses: Ohio State mainstay Bruce Thornton, whose 2,164 career points rank 19th in Big Ten history, completed his four seasons of college hoops and has since moved on to the NBA. In fact, three of the Buckeyes’ top four scorers a season ago are no longer in Columbus.
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So at first glance, it may seem easy to brush past this matchup. Illinois, with its uber-talented and jumbo-sized roster, should cruise past Ohio State in Champaign next season.
On the flip side, the Buckeyes return 2-guard John Mobley Jr., who averaged 15.7 points last season. And Amare Bynum, a 24-game starter in 2025-26, is now a potential breakout sophomore. Transfer Justin Pippen, a smooth lead guard who averaged 14.2 points and 4.6 assists at Cal last season, is also in the mix. And the biggie: Ohio State brings in five-star freshman Anthony Thompson.
The Buckeyes won’t be short on firepower. And coach Jake Diebler, who has improved his win total each season in Columbus, is entering his third full campaign there (not including the 11 games he coached in 2023-24).
Between Ohio State’s size, which should allow it to negate Illinois’ primary team strength – rebounding – and its walking mismatch in Thompson, an ultra-skilled forward whom the Illini will have no answer for, this matchup may be an upset waiting to happen.
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No. 1: at Minnesota
Mar 4, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Niko Medved reacts after a play against the Indiana Hoosiers during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Minnesota has finished over .500 in Big Ten play just once since 2005. The Golden Gophers have been a bottom-feeder in this league for quite some time. Expect coach Niko Medved to change that – and quickly.
Minnesota returns three of its top five scorers from an unexpectedly competitive 2025-26 team (8-12 in league play), and Medved did solid work in the portal, adding five transfers.
The Year 2 leap for Medved won’t be off the charts – he still doesn’t have quite enough talent – but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him push the Gophers past that .500 mark and toward more consistent competitiveness.
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And let’s not forget: Minnesota went 6-4 at home in league play last year, notching wins over Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State and UCLA. The Golden Gophers lost only one game by double digits at home against Big Ten foes in 2025-26.
And which program just so happens to have routine close-game struggles? Brad Underwood and the Illini, who had trouble with Minnesota in Champaign last season. The expectation should still be an Illinois win when these two clubs meet in 2026-27, but it may be closer to a toss-up than it appears to be on paper.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/illinois as Illinois Basketball’s Three Most Dangerous Big Ten Trap Games in 2026-27.
