In The Lab: Two Ways of Looking at Astros Pitching

There is always more than one way to look at numbers and ultimately there are many more than two ways. However, we are going to look at Astros pitching by breaking it down month by month and comparing starters and relievers. We will start with the breakdown of starters versus relievers. This is one area where I am going to have to get on my soapbox.

I’m not a statistician by trade. I don’t work for a professional sports team. I am not advising teams on what they can or should do with numbers. I am merely explaining some of the things they are probably talking about behind closed doors. Obviously, analytics themselves get a bad rap from some folks. I’ve heard them on shock jock radio, podcasts, on internet message boards, and in the comments on articles. Essentially, the supposition is that we are ruining the games themselves.

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In baseball terms, the common thought is that today’s starters aren’t as tough as yesterday’s starters. They aren’t as durable. They’ve been pampered. Back when men were men and sheep were nervous, starters used to finish their games. They threw 200 pitches. No one was keeping track. Yet, the examples they use to prove their point were the exception to the rule. Most guys were breaking down in their late twenties and early thirties. Before Tommy John there was no way to reclaim them.

However, the true reason for the shift in the game is much more simple than that. We found out that relievers are better. Statisticians’ job is to present the data. Teams will decide what they do with the data. Whether it is punting versus going fot it on fourth down, jacking up threes, or going to the pen sooner, teams make that call. Statisticians don’t make that call. Below represents the numbers through the middle game of the Angels series.

This is pretty simple. If we ignore the pedestrian nature of these numbers we can see why teams run their staffs the way they do. The Astros relievers are surrendering one fewer run per nine innings. That’s not insignificant. Of course, we will get to how the entire staff has progressed in a minute. What you can clearly see is that the Astros relievers are striking out more hitters per nine innings and walking fewer hitters per nine innings. In other words, the underlying numbers are saying they are better too.

As you might imagine, this gets into whether Espada is using that pen as efficiently as he possibly can. I will just say that the MLB average ERA is 4.20. That becomes dreadfully important as we move onto the other portion of our study. As we saw with Bryan Abreu, you can look at the whole, but the whole only tells you so much. The Astros have begun to use Abreu in more leverage because the more recent numbers are more encouraging. We can apply that same logic to the overall pitching staff when it comes to analyzing team needs at the deadline. We are including the last game of the Angels series in this one.

Things are not necessarily going in the right direction based on these numbers, but they are also incorporating Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco back in the rotation. Keep in mind that 4.20 ERA is the average ERA in MLB. We could condense down what we are seeing the same way we did with Abreu. March and April was a special kind of hell. A team with those numbers over a full season would be the worst pitching staff in the 21st century. For the math impaired, that would be 952 runs over a full season and that is only earned runs.

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Just like with Abreu, looking at the overall numbers of the pitching staff is relevant when looking at the 2026 season as a whole, but not particularly relevant when asking what this staff is right now. For instance, we see that the starters are averaging nearly 4,9 innings per start over the course of a full season, but we are not breaking that down since May 1st. It tends to debunk the argument that Espada has to pitch relievers multiple innings because the starters suck. Five innings a start is not good historically, but is decent comparatively. In other words, in 2026 it is closer to the norm than not.

Essentially, the Astros staff has been league average since May. It is not surprising that they are eight games above .500 in that amount of time. Their bullpen has been more effective than most and their offense has been above league average overall likely because of Yordan Alvarez. Now, what we do with this information is the obvious next question.

On the one hand, you could claim the pitching has been good enough and the team should bone up on their offense. I have no obvious complaint with this line of thinking. My modus operandi is usually to demand more offense no matter which way the shopping cart is facing. On the other hand, you could credibly argue that no team is going to make a serious October run with average pitching. I can certainly buy that outlook as well.

What we cannot swallow is a look at either the offense or the pitching from the standpoint of what they have done for 110 games. In both cases, that’s not necessarily who this team is. By the time this article has gone stale, the Astros will have made their moves or not made their moves. We obviously will spend next week breaking those moves down. Just like we said in the beginning, we present these numbers as mere information for people to make more informed decisions. That includes fans and pundits alike. The Astros have an average pitching staff. Deal with that how you may.