It still doesn’t make much sense. Not that the Boston Red Sox are trying to quantify it all.
The most unstoppable team in baseball, now owners of the hottest stretch in the 126-year history of the franchise, have morphed from a 32-46 disaster to a team nobody wants to face come October.
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They earned their way to a buyer’s position at Major League Baseball’s trade deadline, made some of the biggest splashes – and only continue to win. They fired their manager and the ground under club president Craig Breslow grew very unstable – and now the embattled Yale graduate is looking like the second coming of Theo Epstein.
How did they get here, and what does it all mean? Let’s take a look inside a most unlikely summer that at least partially restored the shine to a storied franchise gone stale:
They simply don’t lose
First, the numbers.
The Red Sox will carry a seven-game winning streak into their series finale against the Chicago White Sox on Thursday, Aug. 6. They are 16-3 since the All-Star break.
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They are 30-5, tied for the fourth-best 35-game stretch in the expansion era since 1961 (Cleveland‘s 2017 squad, which won a record 22 in a row, holds the record at 32-3).
It’s a stretch that viscerally evokes other stunning stretches across sports, such as the New England Patriots’ 18-0 run in 2007 (let’s ignore the eventual outcome) or the Golden State Warriors’ 73-9 accomplishment in 2015-16 (same).
From a baseball old head’s perspective, one very similar number jumps out: 35-5. That’s how the 1984 Detroit Tigers broke from the gate, on their way to a wire-to-wire demolition of the major leagues and the most inevitable World Series title one could imagine.
The Red Sox are getting closer to 35-5. But how?
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Bombs away
In what will increasingly be known as the Before and After dates in New England, the Red Sox on June 24 ranked 29th in the major leagues with 67 home runs in 78 games.
Since then? They’ve hit 49 home runs in 35 games, good for fifth in the majors and more than any American League East team during that span.
Looking for a hero? You couldn’t do much better than Caleb Durbin, the 5-6 infielder on his third organization in three years.
Caleb Durbin has 10 home runs and an .886 OPS over his past 57 games.
When the Red Sox failed to re-sign Alex Bregman and hastily dealt away Kyle Harrison and others to Milwaukee, Durbin was a key part of the return package. And he promptly laid an egg in his first 49 games in Boston, batting .172 with one home run, a .499 OPS and an abundant sense he was Not Alex Bregman. (Nor Rafael Devers, for that matter).
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Ever since?
Durbin is a different man, socking 10 home runs, posting an .886 OPS with a .309/.369/.517 line. He’s grounded into just one double play in his past 57 games, after hitting into five in his first 49.
For this, the Red Sox can at least partially credit a man they just traded away: Catcher Carlos Narváez, included in the blockbuster deal to snag Adley Rutschman from Baltimore, suggested Durbin visit his swing guru, a fellow named Lorenzo Garmendia in suburban Waltham.
His work with Durbin has resulted in a virtual flip in his groundball/flyball rate, resulting in a massive spike in production. And a huge inflection point for Durbin, who was probably flirting with a minor league demotion before his turnaround.
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Gray matters
As the Red Sox tumbled into the AL East cellar, the trade deadline vultures gathered around the club’s prized pieces. Closer Aroldis Chapman would surely be a goner. And nominal ace Sonny Gray indicated to the Boston Globe that yes, he’d probably listen if the Red Sox came to him and asked to waive his no-trade clause.
But that was before the Red Sox couldn’t lose. And Gray never really stopped winning.
His hot streak began long before his teammates, posting a 12-1 record and 2.42 ERA over 16 starts since May 6. Boston is 15-6 in his 21 starts, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 18 of them.
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At 36, Gray’s golden years are exactly that, his 2.78 ERA his finest since posting a 2.73 mark as a 25-year-old in Oakland. He’s also setting himself up for a lucrative winter, with a $10 million buyout due on a 2027 mutual option, followed by a free agency foray.
But not before a playoff run, thanks to Gray keeping them afloat all along.
He was more curiosity than consistent contributor for a couple seasons, a defensively gifted player capable of holding down shortstop or center field.
Now, Cedanne Rafaela might be the most valuable player in the AL.
He earned his first Gold Glove a year ago and his first All-Star nod this year and the elevator ride is not stopping. Rafaela, 25, is tied for second – behind only Houston‘s Yordan Alvarez – in AL position-player WAR, and for good reason.
Ceddanne Rafaela is on track to win his second consecutive Gold Glove in center field.
The man is having a career year at the plate, with an AL-leading 28 doubles, 15 homers, 15 stolen bases and an .804 OPS. Defensively, he leads AL center fielders with 13 outs above average, second in the majors only to the Cubs‘ Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s 22.
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There’s no finer center field-right field combo in the majors than Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, whose 4.6 WAR aren’t far behind Rafaela’s 5.2. Before the year, it seemed this would be Abreu’s MVP turn, coming off a fine World Baseball Classic performance.
Yet the Red Sox might have a franchise player reaching his ceiling in center.
Chad Tracy: From interim to permanent?
It seemed impetuous and startled the clubhouse and certainly did not have an immediate impact when Breslow fired longtime, World Series-winning manager Alex Cora and installed Chad Tracy as interim manager in April.
Tracy was to become a Hall of Famer – the Worcester Woo Sox Hall of Fame. Yet the man has proven his big-league chops through a mercurial and then glorious period, leading the club on a 15-game winning streak yet, perhaps most significantly, keeping the foot up on the gas in the weeks since.
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It is Boston, and things can always get weird when its executive branch gets involved. And eventually, no one leaves Fenway without a few switchblades in their back. Yet it’s hard to imagine Tracy, barring a playoff meltdown, not earning the permanent gig based on what he’s done the past four months.
Blame the Yankees? Sure, why not
Lest we forget, the Red Sox hit their low point June 24, beaten at Coors Field and then heading home to welcome the mighty New York Yankees.
And then Cam Schlittler finally proved mortal against the Red Sox. Fernando Cruz blew a two-run, 10th-inning lead. And behind their deep pitching, the Red Sox cobbled together a four-game sweep.
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Twenty-five wins in 30 games later, here we are. And the Red Sox are now just a game behind the Yankees for the No. 2 wild card, within 5 ½ of the first-place Rays.
Should the Red Sox blow by them, it will only sting even more for the Bombers. They could have buried Boston. Now, they’ve created a monster.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The Red Sox can’t lose. Here’s how they created a monster
