Alright, let’s lock into a contract extension that I think most Bears fans are curious about: Caleb Williams.
We’ve been looking at several key veterans across the Bears roster and whether the Bears, in the next 12 months, should extend them (Cash), cut them (Slash), or wait a year and make a determination (Slash).
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This one is easy; it’s the details that are trickier.
Caleb Williams: Cash
There’s no reason to spend a lot of time discussing why Caleb should be extended. He has the late-game heroics, the generational talent, the relationship with Ben Johnson, the huge leap from year one to year two, he’s only getting better and we’ve seen the players (NFL Network’s Top 100) ranked him as the 10th best QB, Jeremy Fowler’s poll ranked him as the 10th best QB, and Mike Sando’s QB Tiers ranked him as the 11th best QB.
After two seasons, Caleb Williams has cracked the top 10 QBs in the NFL by everyone across the league. He has a chance to be pushing to be a top 5 QB by the end of this season. He will easily be the best QB in Bears history when it’s all said and done (Sorry, Sid Luckman, your 80-year reign at the top is over). You don’t mess around when you have a talent like Caleb Williams. You pay him.
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So what kind of contract are we looking at for Caleb? It’s going to be expensive.
This is going to be the largest contract the Bears have ever given out, and it’s not even going to be close. In fact, I will go out on a limb and say that this contract will double the largest contract the Bears have ever handed out (which the honor now belongs to Darnell Wright).
When you look at the highest-paid QBs in the NFL, there is a collection of QBs that are making $55 million per season (Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford). That’s where the negotiation begins. There’s no chance that Caleb would accept less than $55 million per season, and I think he’s going to clear that.
There are only two QBs that make above that $55 million threshold. Dak Prescott, who makes $60 million per season, and Patrick Mahomes, who sits at $64 million per season. It should be noted that both Prescott and Mahomes are on their third contract and not their second contract, which obviously is a little different than the position where Caleb will be negotiating from.
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I also think it’s worth noting that I think Caleb is going to drive a hard bargain. I think down the line, we may see Caleb taking discounts so the Bears can sign more players, but I think for contract number two, Caleb is going to be looking to break the bank. I think he’s going to ask to be the highest-paid QB in the NFL. I don’t think he necessarily will get it. But I think, if the Bears start at $55 million per season, I think Caleb and Carl Williams counter with $65 million per season.
Now I think when we are trying to settle on a final AAV, it will also depend on how many years Caleb is willing to go. The Bears will want a 5-year deal so they can lock him in at this price longer; Caleb will want a 4-year deal so he can re-negotiate the deal sooner with a bigger salary cap and more money available.
I think (no inside info, just a hunch) that the Bears and Caleb would be agreeable to a 5-year deal if the Bears are willing to go north of the Dak Prescott deal. I have a hard time seeing the Bears are going to go North of Patrick Mahomes; after all, it is PATRICK MAHOMES.
So I think it’s reasonable that a deal somewhere in the range of 5 years at $62 million per season for a total of $310 million would make sense. That would give Caleb the second-highest-paid annual average salary and the third-highest total value contract in the NFL.
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But that isn’t all that needs to be discussed; we also need to discuss guarantees. That’s where the Bears are going to have to get a little creative. There’s a difference between fully guaranteed and total guarantees. Fully guaranteed is the money the player receives no matter what. Total guarantees include guarantees that kick in during the deal. For example, the Bears could guarantee three full years of a 5-year deal and do a deal that if he’s on the roster for day 1 of the league year in his second year under that contract, that the fourth year becomes fully guaranteed. What does playing with that money do?
Well, any guaranteed money needs to go in escrow. Now, I have heard that’s something that the NFL doesn’t police carefully. It’s not like we hear stories of NFL teams failing to make payroll, so most agents and players don’t push to make sure that happens. But it wouldn’t shock me if that’s something Carl and Caleb push for. If the Bears split up the guarantees as I suggested above, they aren’t on the hook to put the total guarantees in escrow, only the full guarantees. That would allow George McCaskey to split up those funds over 2 or 3 different occasions to help soften the blow of taking a huge amount of cash and putting it aside.
With the guarantees, it’s hard to imagine the Williamses accepting less than about 3 years of the contract fully guaranteed, with a fourth year kicking in at some point during the contract. Other than the disastrous Deshaun Watson contract, the QB with the most fully guaranteed is Josh Allen at $147 million (his total guarantees are at $250 million). So I think that’s the number Caleb eclipses. I think he lands somewhere around $155 million fully guaranteed, while having his total guarantees up around $240 million (currently, Allen is tops with $250 million in totals, while Dak Prescott is 2nd at $231 million).
What does that contract work out to? If I had to guess now, the Bears and Caleb Williams will agree to a contract somewhere around 5 years, $310 million, with $155 million fully guaranteed and total guarantees around $240 million.
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It would be a massive contract that would alter how the Bears operate moving forward. George McCaskey is going to have to put on his big boy pants and take a seat at the table. It’s time to step up and operate like the owner of a multi-billion-dollar organization.
