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UFC Shanghai: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong continues on the prelims with a fight between Xiong Jingnan and Julia Polastri in the strawweight division. Check out our UFC Shanghai odds series for our Jingnan-Polastri prediction and pick.
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Xiong Jingnan (19-3) makes only her second UFC start after dropping a unanimous decision to Angela Hill in her promotional debut in May 2026, a setback that broke a long win streak built largely on ONE Championship strawweight title reigns, as she comes into this fight this weekend against Julia Polastri.
Julia Polastri (14-6) enters this bout on a two-fight skid, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Talita Alencar in April 2026 at UFC Vegas 116, a fight where she struggled to establish her grappling and lost the striking exchanges on the feet, as she comes into this fight this weekend against Jingnan Xiong.
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UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
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UFC Shanghai Odds: Xiong Jingnan-Julia Polastri Odds
Xiong Jingnan: +205
Julia Polastri: -250
Over 2.5 rounds: -375
Under 2.5 rounds: +270
Why Xiong Jingnan Will Win
Xiong Jingnan brings a genuine championship résumé into this fight, having reigned as a dominant strawweight champion in ONE Championship before making the jump to the UFC. That kind of high-level title experience against elite competition simply outweighs what Julia Polastri has faced on her way up the UFC ladder .
Polastri, meanwhile, is walking in on a one-fight losing streak after dropping a clear unanimous decision to Talita Alencar in April 2026, a fight where she struggled to find her grappling and lost every striking exchange. Before that setback, her form was inconsistent, alternating wins and losses across her last several UFC outings.
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Xiong’s power is a legitimate concern for anyone standing across from her, with 10 of her 19 career wins coming by knockout or TKO. Polastri has shown she can be hurt on the feet, and against a striker with Xiong’s finishing instincts, that vulnerability becomes a serious liability .
Even accounting for Xiong’s own UFC debut loss to Angela Hill, that setback looked more like early promotional jitters than a skill deficiency. Expect Xiong to use her championship pedigree and superior boxing to control range, pick her spots, and ultimately outwork Polastri over three rounds for a clear decision win.
Why Julia Polastri Will Win
Xiong Jingnan is 38 years old and coming off a nearly three-year layoff before her UFC debut, and rust like that doesn’t simply disappear after one Octagon appearance. She lost that debut to Angela Hill, a fighter well past her own prime, which raises real questions about how Xiong’s tools translate against the UFC’s current pace.
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Julia Polastri, despite her recent skid, is significantly younger and has been fighting consistently inside the UFC, giving her a far better internal clock for five-minute rounds and championship-style pace. Xiong hasn’t earned a finish since 2019, meaning Polastri doesn’t need to fear getting caught cold in an early firefight.
Polastri’s résumé includes five wins by knockout and three by submission, showing she can end a fight multiple ways if the opportunity presents itself. Against an aging striker who was outworked over three rounds by Angela Hill, Polastri’s activity and volume could be enough to replicate that formula.
Xiong’s championship pedigree in ONE Championship doesn’t guarantee UFC success, and her own camp has already seen the warning signs from the Hill fight. If Polastri pressures early, mixes in her grappling, and avoids Xiong’s power shots, her youth and freshness should carry her to a hard-fought decision win in Shanghai.
Final Xiong Jingnan-Julia Polastri Prediction & Pick
Polastri’s activity level and UFC seasoning should let her set the pace early, forcing Xiong to fight at a speed she hasn’t shown since her long ONE Championship layoff. Expect Polastri to work behind volume striking and mix in enough grappling threats to keep Xiong guessing through the first two rounds .
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Xiong’s power remains her one true equalizer, and if she can land clean in an exchange, she has the finishing instincts to change the fight instantly. But Polastri’s five-fight UFC track record against the roster’s depth suggests she’s better conditioned for the grind of a full three-round fight .
Look for Polastri to win a competitive but clear decision, using pressure and output to offset Xiong’s power shots and hand her a second straight UFC-career setback.
Final Xiong Jingnan-Julia Polastri Prediction & Pick: Julia Polastri (-250); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-375)
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