A brief history of the RB1 in fantasy football scoring and the dreaded curse that follows the player year-to-year

The overall RB1 is the most important player in all of fantasy football. Analyst Joel Smyth goes over the curse of RB1s past, why the overall No. 1 player is so important for winning leagues and who they could be in 2026.

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The RB1 Curse

Former RB1s of the season prior have not fared well the following season; some would even say they’ve been cursed. Whether it’s injury or a steep decline, the player who dominated the league the year before, often being taken first overall, has failed to live up to expectations in each of the past seven seasons, with Alvin Kamara being the lone top RB (although still dipping by 7.0 PPG).

Below is a look at the RB1 from the past seven seasons in Full-PPR formats.

Christian McCaffrey will be up to bat for the third time on this list, with his first two seasons following an RB1 performance ending in season-long injuries that tanked fantasy teams. He’s been the overall RB1 three times, making his 1.05 price tag seem plenty worth it, but his three season-killing years make it a terrifying selection at the same time.

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To show just how bad the former RB1s have performed going back to 2015, comparing them to the top rookie back is shocking. Over the last 11 seasons, the No. 1 RB selected in the NFL Draft has outscored or performed the same as the former RB1 in PPG in nine of the 11 years. AKA, the Jeremiyah Love counterparts have done better or the same as the McCaffrey counterparts almost every season.

Benefit of the Overall RB1

If you can find this year’s overall RB1, the benefit cannot be overstated. If you draft the RB1, you win leagues. Last season, McCaffrey on your roster gave you a 25.7% chance of winning it all, up from your average ~8% chance in a 12-team league. Players that come extremely close have similar value as well, with Bijan Robinson being on 27.4% on championship teams because of his Week 17 blow-up. The elite RB upside is the key.

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Difference Between the RB1 and an RB1

PPG Since 2016

Over the last decade, the difference between the RB1 and an RB1 (the RB12), is incomparable. So much so that even if you combined the overall RB1 with the worst possible RB flex play (the RB36), it would still be more valuable to have than the RB12 + RB13 in nine of the 10 seasons, and not really close with a 4.1 PPG advantage for the RB1 + RB36. 

Another great way to show the value gap is just in salary cap leagues. Analyst Justin Boone has Jahmyr Gibbs, the overall RB1 in ADP, valued at $57, while the RB12 Kyren Williams is way down at $24.

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Who Has the Best Odds?

Historically, overall RB1s have not been found after Round 2, with only three since 2005 (14%) being selected outside the top-24, with the majority being Round 1 selections. That would narrow us down to 12 RBs.

Gibbs, the current 1.01 in ADP, is my easy selection for the best odds. In short, the Lions averaged over 31 RB fantasy PPG last season, even with an offensive coordinator firing mid-season. The current RB2 is an injured Isiah Pacheco, with Sione Vaki behind him with one touch in 2025. There is a shot he has LT or 2019 CMC-level upside this year.

Robinson and McCaffrey are the next tier behind. McCaffrey has zero issues outside of injury history and age risk, making him a great pick if your league does not have a last-place punishment. Robinson is nearly equal to Gibbs, just on a much lower offense, especially with their current QB room.

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Of the later RB picks, there are three other names I think have a good shot. James Cook II is one, with the best combination of offense and offensive line; Cook is only his rumored receiving role away from another career year. Kenneth Walker III has the offense, talent and volume potential to make it happen in Round 2, with an injury scare moving him back in drafts. The goal line and receiving potential as the best offensive skill player on the team makes for a huge opportunity.

Last, I’d give Omarion Hampton a shoutout. If Keaton Mitchell is nothing more than the RB2 he’s been in the past, Hampton finds himself in an amazing RB offense with all the goal-line work on a good team. His receiving chops, which we saw in his rookie season, can propel him to the classic second-year ceiling season that we’ve seen in recent years for players like Robinson, Gibbs, Breece Hall and Jonathan Taylor.