Aces vs Liberty Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s Commissioner’s Cup Final

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It’s a heavyweight rematch on paper as the decade’s two dominant WNBA franchises clash in the Commissioner’s Cup Final.

But the narrative took a massive hit with the Aces’ announcement that four-time MVP A’ja Wilson is out.

Without their superstar anchor, Las Vegas sees its chances slide, transforming from a gritty, slight underdog into a steep, three-bucket longshot against the New York Liberty.

My Aces vs. Liberty predictions and these WNBA picks expect New York to capitalize on this opportunity on Tuesday, June 30.

UPDATE: Added player prop prediction.

Aces vs Liberty prediction

Aces vs Liberty best bet: Liberty -6.5 (-110)

Sitting A’ja Wilson due to an ankle injury makes sense despite this being the Commissioner’s Cup final. While the Las Vegas Aces would relish the additional $20,000 each player on the winning team receives, this game does not count in the WNBA standings.

But Wilson effectively is the Aces’ offense; her 32.8% usage rate is just short of 10 percentage points higher than the next highest rate in the rotation.

Without Wilson, Las Vegas’s No. 1 offensive rating should stall against the New York Liberty tonight.

Covers

COVERS INTEL:

A’ja Wilson is also Las Vegas’s best defender, accounting for double the defensive win shares of anyone else on the roster this season.

Aces vs Liberty same-game parlay

Without Wilson’s defense, the New York Liberty may live in the paint tonight, led by Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart.

The idea of them both finding clean looks at the rim would terrify any opponent and should make for a relatively high-scoring game, one that would be further elevated by Las Vegas’ late desperation.

Aces vs Liberty SGP

Aces vs Liberty player prop pick

Jackie Young Over 19.5 points (+102)

Among the Aces’ true rotation, Jackie Young’s usage rate of 23.1% is closest to Wilson’s prolific 32.8%, and given her questionable defense, the only way for Young to justify such usage is to indeed score.

Even with Wilson in the lineup, Young has cleared this prop in four of her last five games, that exception coming by the mere hook.

Douglas Farmer’s 2026 Transparency Record

Best bet: 8-6, -0.15 units

Aces vs Liberty odds

Spread: Las Vegas +6.5 | New York -6.5
Moneyline: Las Vegas +205 | New York -250
Over/Under: Over 173.5 | Under 173.5

Aces vs Liberty trend

Six of New York’s last nine games have gone Over their totals, two of the exceptions featuring blowouts. Find more WNBA betting trends.

How to watch Aces vs Liberty

Location	Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Date	Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Tip-off	7 p.m. ET
TV	Prime Video

Aces vs Liberty latest injuries

Aces: A’ja Wilson (Out), Janiah Barker (Out), Dana Evans (Out).
Liberty: Satou Sabally (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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