I just can’t wait until the end of the season to do the final analysis of the San Francisco Giants/Farhan Zaidi opting not to sign Kevin Gausman to an extension after the 2021 season. With the trade deadline less than a month away now and Robbie Ray almost certainly on the move, it’s begging to be written right now.
The history of the Giants getting burned by long-term pitching contracts is pretty spectacular. I don’t know what moron opted to sign Barry Zito to that 7-year deal after the 2003 season, and if it was Larry Baer, it just goes to show what an untouchable and blessed man he is. But after that, extensions for Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain didn’t provide value in the actual extension years. The Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto deals were similarly hailed as massive failures that doomed the franchise. So, that’s a pretty good sampling of failure, which ignores the context of all the success.
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That’s pretty much what happened with Gausman. The Giants ignored the context of success or that the player wanted to remain in San Francisco or that he worked well with a burgeoning young pitcher already in the fold in Logan Webb. A couple of years later, Farhan Zaidi would be able to show his work and convince ownership that signing Webb to an extension in a similar AAV range as Gausman would be good for the team and they acquiesced… but they’ve still bothered to let their disgruntlement echo through the halls of Oracle Park and into the curious ears of beat writers and pundits. It is known that the Giants don’t favor, value, or want pitchers signed to big, long-term deals. It’s why they were willing to let Madison Bumgarner walk after his deal.
When you’re the sole team in a country as the Blue Jays are in Canada, it’s not a big deal.
This isn’t to say that the Giants totally have the wrong idea and high value, high payroll teams like the Blue Jays do, but before we look at Kevin Gausman and his Blue Jays teammates, let’s finish this analysis. Kevin Gausman left the Giants and signed a 5-year, $110 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays that started in 2022. Rather than re-sign him, the Giants went with Carlos Rodón, Alex Cobb, and Robbie Ray. Here’s how the plan has worked out over the past almost-five seasons:
Now, the total amount for the Giants’ side of the equation is based on two assumptions: that the Giants, owing Alex Cobb $10 milion for 2024, saved about $3.333 million the rest of the season after trading him away to the Guardians before he’d finished his rehab; and, that in trading Robbie Ray with approximately two months to go in 2026, they will have paid Robbie Ray $16.7 million and gotten half a win above replacement out of him (yes, this is envisioning a trade before his next start).
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So, if all this holds, the Giants’ missed it by… an awful lot. From a straight money perspective, they were off by just about $2 million, and for most wagon circling front office lovers out there that might be more than enough to still bother to affirm the previous regime’s “genius,” but the substantive part of the analysis — that wins above replacement total — is a big whiff. The Giants were so afraid of committing long-term to a pitcher out of fear of injuries or ineffectiveness that they wound up acquiring THREE pitchers with injury histories and 2/3 of them saw their production hampered by injuries. This was some penny wise, pound foolish nonsense and I’m glad we all got to experience it. Farhan Zaidi, encouraged by ownership, attempted to recreate Kevin Gausman in the aggregate so that the Giants could have a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation, and the team failed.
Anyway, this post’s headline is a reference to the penultimate episode of Star Trek: The Original Series, which was about Kirk, Spock, and McCoy beaming down to a planet that was about to be obliterated by its star going supernova after getting signs of life. Upon beaming down, they discover that the entire civilization has devised a time travel technology that will allow every single person to escape into their planet’s past to live out their lifespans and not have to be lost to the supernova.
It’s a good enough episode that if it had been the series finale it would’ve been a good one to go out on — certainly better than the actual finale, the genuinely awful and misogynistic “Turnabout Intruder” — but as a talking point for the 2026 San Francisco Giants it carries exactly this weight: as nice as it is to escape into the past to avoid a terrible future, the punishing nature of the major league schedule and the cruel passage of time prevents that from happening.
We’ll never know if re-signing Gausman would’ve worked out as well as it did for the Blue Jays and if that working out would’ve meant a couple more winning seasons interspersed in the last 5 seasons, and as nice as it would be to escape into that past or that reality, the supernova is here and the Giants must once again ask if the rules they’ve self-imposed that have brought them into its path were of any use. Hmm, why bother wondering. Powerful, successful people have made these rules. They can’t fail, they can only be failed.
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But I can’t be totally critical. Since 2020, when the Blue Jays kicked off this latest competitive window, their pitching staff (with or without Gausman) hasn’t been as valuable as the Giants, trailing the orange and black 82.2 to 94.1 Sure, they have a better record over this same span (514-446 to 494-465) and four postseason appearances including a World Series loss, but the Giants have had the better pitching — or, at least, Logan Webb along with their aggregate approach has mostly worked.
Not this year, of course. This year has been an unmitigated disaster. Not much the Giants have done has worked.
That’s sort of what’s happened with the Blue Jays. They’ve done all the things a big market/high-spending team is supposed to do: build through the draft and international signings, developing talent through the farm system, retaining the most valuable farm players with long-term deals and supplementing the roster with free agents. They signed Vladimir Guerrero to a 14-year, $500 million deal last April. Gausman was brought in to be the #2 behind Alek Manoah, and when that didn’t work out, he’s managed to be the steadiest pitcher behind whoever was considered “the ace,” ascending to that role in the 2025 World Series year. This year, he’s part of a three-headed monster with Trey Yesavage (drafted) and Dylan Cease (free agent).
Still, with all that talent at the top of the rotation, Toronto’s pitching staff is a lot closer to middle of the pack (13th in fWAR). Compounding problems is that their lineup just hasn’t clicked. Their 92 wRC+ is just 23rd. They are second to last in runs scored (356), making them the lowest-scoring team in the American League. The cause? Well, they let Bo Bichette go and 36-year old George Springer won’t replicate 35-year old George Springer’s 32 home run season of 2025. The team’s power dropoff is precipitous and their team batting line compared to last year — keeping in mind that the 2025 squad is the type of lineup the Giants seem to want — is stark:
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2025: .265/.333/.427 (.162 ISO), 8.4 BB%, 17.8 K%
2026: .244/.306/.382 (.139 ISO), 7.4 BB%, 20.0 K%
Walking less, striking out more, hitting for less power, making less contact — a bad recipe that makes a bad lineup, which is just what Toronto has had. Since getting back to 39-39 a few weeks ago, they’ve gone 3-9 thanks to averaging just 3 runs per game. They’ve been shutout in 3 of their last 5 games including 2 straight. They were 3-7 on their last homestand.
This team still has playoff aspirations. The Giants do not.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (37-52) vs Toronto Blue Jays (42-48)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Monday & Tuesday at 6:45pm PT, Wednesday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: Peacock (Sunday)
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Projected starters
Monday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-8, 4.55 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP 4-7, 4.19 ERA)
Tuesday: TBD vs. Trevor McDonald (RHP 3-6, 4.42 ERA)
Wednesday: Logan Webb (RHP 5-6, 3.66 ERA) vs. Dylan Cease (RHP 5-4, 2.79 ERA)
Blue Jays to watch
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Vlad Guerrero has yet to homer at home this season! That has no bearing on this series, necessarily, but it’s an interesting factoid. He has just 4 all season anyway and a very bad .698 OPS to boot. Baseball Savant took a look at Vladito’s power drought and found some reasons to think he’s due for a turnaround in-season. You’d like to think that the slump would linger a little longer, though. He’s played at Oracle Park just twice in his career (2019 & 2024) and the two homers he’s hit came in 2019. He was 1-for-13 in the 2024 series.
Tyler Rogers: Why didn’t I make the whole series preview about the Tyler Rogers’ return? Well, because he’s got two more years left on his deal. Instead, Buster Posey will get to watch the funky submariner attack Giants hitters and see if the organization’s familiarity with him gives any of the hitters an edge. Rogers has allowed 0 homers in 42 appearances (40.2 IP). Toronto’s closer, Louis Varland (18 saves, 2.2 fWAR) has allowed just 1 in 47 IP.
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Ernie Clement: I am not the only one who remembers how he absolutely obliterated the Giants at Oracle Park back in that 2024 series. Total annihilation. He was 5-for-11 with 2 homers and 7 RBI. Both of his homers were 3-run homers, one off of Ryan Walker and another off of Logan Webb, both of whom he’ll face in this series. But! He’s just 13-for-55 in his last 16 games (.236/.276/.273) with only 2 extra base hits (doubles) and a single RBI.
Giants to watch
Logan Webb: Can the Giants’ ace get back on track after a disastrous start in Coors Field or have the wheels come off the season and now it’s all about turning to next season?
Rafael Devers: He has 24 career homers against Toronto across 108 games and 449 plate appearances. A career .927 OPS hitter in the matchup. His two homers yesterday gave him 18 on the season which ties him with Manny Machado, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and CJ Abrams — good company. Half of them have come since June 15th… the day I published a post assessing Devers’ present and projecting his future. I didn’t think he’d be much better than around the league average. Since that post went up, he’s hit .306/.386/.790 (70 PA), an 11.4 BB%, and 20 K% — far, far better than the league. Is he reading my posts???
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Heliot Ramos: He’s got a couple of homers in 7 games off the IL with a 6.9 BB% and surprising 17.2 K%. Whether or not the Giants trade him is irrelevant. He’s an easy Giant to root for and if he’s back on track, really fun to watch.
Prediction time
Kevin Gausman will strike out some Giant at least twice. Tyler Rogers will get a pair of strikeouts in at least one appearance. Jung Hoo Lee will hit a home run.
