For a lot of this season, it looked like the top three or four teams in college basketball were pretty clear. Maybe those teams will still emerge. But, the NCAA tournament begins, they don’t seem quite as infallible. Here are my picks for each region and the Final Four:
EAST REGION
This is a loaded region with a lot of possibilities, including Michigan State coming through to reach the Final Four. Making this a harder region to call are the injuries to Duke starters, center Patrick Ngongba II and guard Caleb Foster (with Foster and his 40% 3-point shooting out indefinitely), and the poor play recently by Connecticut. Duke has to get through St. John’s or Kansas in the Sweet 16 to reach the Elite Eight. But the Blue Devils still have the best player in college basketball in Cam Boozer, with a really good sidekick in guard Isaiah Evans. As long as Duke gets Ngongba back in the paint by the second weekend of the tournament, I think the Blue Devils are still the most likely squad to win a region full of big brands and capable but vulnerable teams.
Advertisement
The pick: Duke
MORE: See Graham Couch’s entire NCAA tournament bracket
SOUTH REGION
Illinois’ Keaton Wagler celebrates a 3-pointer against Michigan State during the second half on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
There are three teams that I think have a chance to emerge from the South Region — 1-seed Florida, 2-seed Houston and 3-seed Illinois. If I had faith in Illinois’ ability to put together an NCAA tournament run under Brad Underwood, I’d pick the Illini here. There are lot of things I like about their roster, backcourt of Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell, and their potential to get rolling offensively. I’ve just got visions of Kofi Cockburn and first- and second-round Illini exits bouncing around my head. Houston freshman guard Kingston Flemings is one of the best few players in the sport and the Cougars are one of the best defenses. The thing that scares me about Florida is the Gators’ lack of perimeter shooting and sometimes looseness with the ball offensively. At some point, that’ll bite them. If Kelvin Sampson was coaching Illinois, they’d be the pick. But he’s coaching Houston.
Advertisement
The pick: Houston
WEST REGION
Mar 14, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Arizona Wildcats center Motiejus Krivas (13) and forward Koa Peat (10) high-five during the second half against the Houston Cougars during the men’s Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images
The top half of this region is up there with the top of the East bracket — 1-seed Arizona having to get through 4-seed Wisconsin or 5-seed Arkansas to reach the Sweet 16. Both the Badgers and Razorbacks are capable of pulling an upset on their day. Same for 2-seed Purdue in the bottom half of the Bracket. But Arizona is at a different level in terms of consistency, size and low-post scoring and, in the Big 12 tournament, showed a knack for pulling out close wins against elite teams in Iowa State and Houston. Everyone can be beaten. It’s just hard to picture it happening to Arizona in this region.
Advertisement
The pick: Arizona
MIDWEST REGION
Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) reacts after scoring a game-winning basket against the Wisconsin Badgers during the second half at United Center.
No. 1-seed Michigan just completed the most impressive Big Ten regular season arguably in 50 years. The Wolverines, at their best, looked like a super team. At the Big Ten tournament last weekend, they did not. I don’t put too much into that. The loss of LJ Cason hurts them. But nobody has a better front line in the sport, with a 7-3 center in Aday Mara, power forward Morez Johnson, and 6-9 forward Yaxel Lendeborg. If Michigan gets good guard play, the Wolverines will win this region. But there is one team that might beat them three or four out of 10 times — 2-seed Iowa State. The Cyclones beat Houston in their only meeting and lost by two to Arizona in the Big 12 tournament semifinals. They are elite defensively and dangerous from beyond the arc. They, too, can win a national title.
Advertisement
The pick: Michigan
MORE: Join the ‘Beat Couch’ NCAA tournament pool
THE FINAL FOUR
There’s a lot of chalk in this Final Four — Arizona, Michigan, Duke and Houston. But it would be a heckuva foursome. Arizona has a frontcourt in Tobe Awaka, Koa Peat and 7-2 center Motiejus Krivas and that can match Michigan in a lot of ways, including scoring the paint. This would be one of the most interesting mano a mano matchups I can imagine this season. If Jaden Bradley is unbothered by a wrist injury he suffered in the Big 12 championship, I’d take Arizona here, by a nose. In the other semifinal, I’ll go with a Duke team that I expect will be still down Caleb Foster but otherwise whole. For much of the year, there wasn’t much to separate Duke, Michigan and Arizona. The losses of Foster and L.J. Cason aren’t death knells but they do make the Blue Devils and Wolverines and little less.
Advertisement
The champion: Arizona
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: NCAA men’s basketball tournament region and Final Four picks for 2026
