Toronto Maple Leafs GM John Chayka has shaken up the organization on all fronts, notably the roster. There have been multiple additions through trade or free agency since he was hired, and some anticipate that he has more tricks up his sleeve.
On the latest episode of Sportsnet’s 32 Thoughts podcast, Elliotte Friedman shared a 2026-27 prediction that someone gave him as he called around the league to get a grip on the latest NHL chatter. That unnamed contact said he predicts that Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson will become a member of the Maple Leafs.
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It’s an interesting thought given the stature of the player that Karlsson is. Maybe he’s not the same 100-point defenseman he was in 2022-23 with the San Jose Sharks. But the 36-year-old veteran is coming off a solid campaign with the Penguins this past year, in which he registered 15 goals and 66 points in 75 games, boosting his offensive production from the previous pair of seasons.
There are some aspects of alignment that make this prediction sensible.
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Karlsson and the Maple Leafs have been linked before. Pittsburgh’s current GM, Kyle Dubas, tried to trade for Karlsson before when he was Toronto’s GM. Obviously, once Dubas joined the Penguins, he was able to acquire the offensive defenseman from the Sharks, which suggests he likes the player. While Toronto has a new front office, the Maple Leafs were interested in Karlsson before.
Speaking of the new front office, Maple Leafs icon Mats Sundin is now a big part of the organization as the senior executive advisor to Chayka. Not to mention, Daniel Alfredsson is joining Toronto’s coaching staff as an associate coach for the 2026-27 campaign.
The biggest link there is Sundin and Alfredsson being influential figures in Swedish hockey, and Karlsson is one of the greatest Swedish players of his generation.
On top of that, Karlsson and Alfredsson have an extended relationship related to the Ottawa Senators. In the first four years of Karlsson’s NHL career, he and Alfredsson were teammates in Ottawa.
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If Chayka and the Maple Leafs truly wanted to acquire Karlsson from the Penguins, they may need to exercise that relationship with Alfredsson to convince the three-time Norris Trophy winner. With one-year remaining on his eight-year contract with a $11.5 million salary cap hit, Karlsson has a no-move clause that would need to be waived to go to Toronto.
He has been traded before while owning a no-move clause (San Jose to Pittsburgh), so it’s possible that it could happen again.
The possibility of this trade happening also hinges on how this coming season goes for the two clubs. If the Maple Leafs are trending toward being a playoff team and the Penguins are falling out of that race, trading Karlsson becomes more probable.
On the other hand, it wouldn’t work if Pittsburgh is pushing for the playoffs, or if Toronto sees a similar campaign to this past year.
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In this hypothetical scenario of Karlsson to Toronto, he would immediately be an offensive presence from the back end, which is something the team has lacked in previous years.
The last time a Maple Leafs defenseman reached the production Karlsson achieved in 2025-26 was when Morgan Rielly notched 68 points in 2021-22.
Darren Raddysh will also be capable of putting up strong numbers from the blueline, too, after registering 22 goals and 70 points with the Tampa Bay Lightning this past year. Could adding Karlsson hinder what Raddysh can bring to the Leafs?
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