Diamondbacks First Round Picks Who Made an Impact

Inspiration.

On Saturday, I was optimistic about who the Diamondbacks drafted in the first round: Ryder Helfrick and Blake Bryant.

“Helfrick is the best defensive catcher in the class… If they stick, the [batting] improvements [better swing decisions and moved away from the plate] this year give him a chance to be an All-Star.” — Keith Law

“Bryant really looks the part of a future No. 2 starter,…” — Keith Law

I wondered about two questions.

What are the chances they will reach the Majors?
What are the chances they will make a positive impact?

Let’s look at all the first-round picks by the Diamondbacks after Mike Hazen was the GM.

How often do first-round picks reach the Majors?

In recent years, for all the teams, in general about 81% of first-round draftees reached the Majors (for at least one game) per JJ Cooper’s Baseball America article.

Looking at the players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM, 7 of 10 draftees (70%) made it to the Majors within 3 seasons of being drafted (ignoring the unsigned Matt McLain). Also, an eighth draftee (Blake Walston) made it in 5 seasons. 70% is a little below average, but seemed like an acceptable result.

The position player chances were higher than pitcher chances (83% vs 50%). Given the known problem with pitcher development, which is being addressed, that difference seems to make sense.

In each of the next three seasons, two first-round picks by the Diamondbacks will reach their third season, and they will likely significantly impact the percentages that reached the Majors.

How often do first-round picks make a positive impact?

My view is that accumulating at least one Baseball-Reference Win-Above-Replacement (bWAR) will accomplish a positive impact. Although that view is possibly a low bar, and although a replacement level player can make a small impact, that is where I drew a demarcation line.

Looking at the players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM, 3 of 10 draftees made a positive impact. They were Corbin Carroll, Drey Jameson, and Bryce Jarvis. I was surprised that 2 of the 3 were pitchers! Perhaps the story is more complex than it appeared!

Drafting Corbin Carroll was like winning a jackpot. So far, he has earned 18.9 bWAR, making his impact far above all the other Diamondbacks first-round draftees. In addition, his performance earned the Diamondbacks an extra draft pick, which was used to draft Ryan Waldschmidt.

Could other first-round draftees make an impact in the future?

In a 3-step process, I estimated the future impact of each draftee. Opinions on future impact differ widely.

Estimated each player’s future bWAR for the Diamondbacks.
Subtracted bWAR equivalent to their salary divided by $9 million per bWAR.
Rounded the result to acknowledge the huge uncertainty in the estimate.

Three of the seven first-round draftees who did not make an impact, could make an impact in the future. They were Ryan Waldschmidt, Jordan Lawlar, and Tommy Troy. IF that optimistic impact happens, the percentage of first-round draftees who made an impact could possibly increase from 30% to 60%.

Two tables show the first-round draftees.

Looking at the players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM, the following table shows the first-round draftees who made it to the Majors.

Looking at the players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM, the following table shows the first-round draftees who have not yet made it to the Majors.

Data from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, and MLBcom.

Summary.

Looking at the 10 players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM:

7 draftees reached the Majors within 3 seasons.
3 draftees made an impact of at least 1 bWAR. I was surprised that 2 of the 3 were pitchers.
My optimistic estimate is that an additional 3 draftees could possibly make an impact of at least 1 bWAR.
Corbin Carroll made the largest impact, with 18.9 bWAR and his performance earned the Diamondbacks an additional draft pick.

Source link